Last night’s fare at the Winter Gardens was a bit one sided in both quarter-finals. Michael Smith was totally outplayed by Peter Wright with Snakebite eventually winning 16-7. It looked like MVG vs Aspinall had the potential to be a classic but it was anything but. MVG won a very scrappy game 16-9 in the end but it was a tough watch and you’d see better doubling down the Dog and Duck. James Punt is back in action tonight and hopefully the standard improves. Check out his PDC World Matchplay Semi-Finals tips below.

Dimitri van den Bergh vs. Krzysztof Ratajski

Two players with an interesting H2H record. They have played seven times with Van den Bergh winning four, Ratajski three. The Polish Eagle has won the last three, Van den Bergh the first four. All of Dimitri’s wins were by 6-5 score lines.

Van den Bergh’s tournament average is 100.5, checkout rate 34.5% and has hit a table topping 30 maximums. Ratajski’s tournament stats are very similar with a tournament average of 99.1, checkout rate of 42% and seventeen 180’s hit. Even their season stats are very close. Seasonal averages of 98 for Van den Bergh, 97.6 for Ratajski. Dimitri’s win rate is 63%, Krzysztof’s 60%. Very hard to separate them on performance. Recent form shows Van den Bergh winning seven of his last ten matches, Ratajski eight. Not much there either.

The odds see Van den Bergh best priced at 1.47 and Ratajski at 3.00. Those odds do not reflect the relative performance of the two players this week, or this year, nor their H2H record.

The only thing separating these two is the fact that Van den Bergh has won a major title, this one last year. Ratajski will be playing in his first major semi-final, and he is probably going to be the more nervous player.

Professional Van Den Bergh

Van den Bergh is a very professional player and uses sports psychology to focus his mind on the throw ahead, not the leg, or the match, the throw. You may have noticed a little blue towel he had on his table in his match against Gerwyn Price. He went to his table before each leg and touched it. Just a simple little tap but it was part of his ritual to keep him ‘in the zone’.

There was only one leg when he didn’t tap the towel, the penultimate leg when he was throwing for the win, and he forgot to go to his table first for a tap. He lost that leg. If Ratajski wants to improve his chances of winning massively, he needs to nick that towel.

That simple little tactic helps him concentrate, to reset his mind for every leg and helped him ignore Price when he tried to intimidate him. Price wasn’t getting any reaction and it shut him up, dropped his adrenaline levels and took the edge right off his game.

Against Ratajski things may be a bit different. The Polish Eagle is a very focused player, deadpan, reserved and he too is in his own little zone. He may not use a prop such as the towel, but he is very focused on what he is doing.

Ratajski Scoring Crucial

This match is likely to be decided by how well Ratajski copes with the inevitable nerves of playing arguably the biggest match of his life. He lost at the quarter final stage in this last year, losing 13-16 to Michael Smith. He lost in the quarter finals of the World Championship and quarter final of this years UK Open, so he has gotten over that quarter final hurdle. It must be said that he played very well in the UK Open quarter final, averaging 104, but lost 7-10 to MVG. He has won six pro tour titles since 2018 and a Euro Tour title in 2019 and he is a major winner in waiting.

Dimitri van Bergh has struggled with Ratajski in their previous seven matches and has lost the last three. If Ratajski settles and continues to play to the standard seen so far, he is right in with good chance. The bookmakers may be over estimating Dimitri or underestimating Ratajski but while Van den Bergh has to be favourite, he is just too short in the betting and the value is with Ratajski.

PDC World Matchplay Semi-Finals Tips: 1 point Krzysztof Ratajski to win @ 3.00 with Betvictor, Betfred, BET365

Van den Bergh has been hitting maximums for fun with a 180 per leg rate of an outrageous 0.52. Ratajski has hit 17 but only at 0.26 per leg. Dimitri is 1.25 to hit the most 180’s which might be like finding money in the street, but Ratajski is no slouch either and this match could be closer and longer than many think. The bookies think around 29 legs and if so, I reckon we will see over 20 maximums hit.

PDC World Matchplay Semis Tips: 1 point over 19.5 maximums @ 2.00 generally available

Peter Wright vs. Michael van Gerwen

Peter Wright was Van Gerwen’s bitch for a long time. Wright would get the occasional win, but rarely in a big match. In ranked majors it was 8-0 to MVG but the 2020 World Championship final, it was Wright who won seven sets to three. Arguably that was the start of MVG’s decline but the fact is he peaked in 2016 and has seen his win rate decline every year since, but that loss was especially painful for Van Gerwen.

Their H2H stats are horrible reading for Snakebite, 64-21 to MVG overall but since that World Championship win it is 5-3 to MVG and, significantly, when they met in the final of PC20 a couple of weeks ago, it was Peter Wright who won 8-2, despite Van Gerwen averaging 106.

Their Tournament stats make better reading for Wright. He is averaging a tournament best of 101.7, checking out at 45% and has hit 19 maximums. MVG is averaging 96.8, checking out at 40% and has hit 12 maximums. It is also worth noting that Wright has had his throw broken just four times across his three matches so far.

Both In Good Form

Recent form shows MVG winning nine of his last ten matches which is excellent, but not as good as Wright who has won all ten, which is perfect.

The penny has started to drop with the bookmakers, that Van Gerwen is no longer the best player in the world. He is still very good but there are three or four players who are better right now. On prize money won in 2021, MVG is only sixth. Even Stephen Bunting is ahead of him.

Wright is best priced at 1.85, MVG 2.10 and while the value is not huge on Wright, that recent 8-2 drubbing when MVG was playing his A+ games seals it for me.

PDC World Matchplay Semi-Finals Tip: 1 point Peter Wright to win @ 1.85 with Betfair

-JamesPunt