2021 Hungarian GP Raceday Update

It’s time for James Punt’s 2021 Hungarian GP Raceday Update…

Seconds out….round two.

Lewis Hamilton and teammate Valtteri Bottas locked out the first row of the grid in yesterday’s qualifying, but Max Verstappen and his teammate, Sergio Perez, start right behind them and more importantly, are on the soft tyre. The two Mercedes will start on the medium compound, more durable, but with less grip and slower to warm up.

It is a long run down into the first corner and the two Red Bulls will be quick off the line and getting a slip stream from the Mercedes in front. It is a perfect recipe for four cars piling into the first corner at the same time.

On paper, the Mercedes have the better strategy. They are on the better tyre to execute a one stop race and if they can finish the first lap still in first place, it is very likely race over. They have the faster car this weekend and the reason why Red Bull switched to the soft tyre in Q2 was that they were not sure that Max would be quick enough to reach Q3 on the medium. It was not a strategical masterplan; they were just not quick enough.

Make Tyres Last

However, if one or both Red Bulls get ahead, they control the race and it is not out of the question that they could make a one stop strategy work if they can wring enough life out of the soft tyre. Pierre Gasly did a 22 lap stint on the soft in free practice and if the track temperature is lower today, then they might well last longer than expected.

It was raining this morning for the F3 race, and the forecast is for a 50% chance of thunderstorms and mostly cloudy conditions for today’s race. That will mean the track will be significantly cooler than it has been so far this weekend. That in turn should extend the durability of the tyres.

One piece of unwelcome news for Verstappen is that Honda detected a problem with his power unit and have elected to fit his car with a brand new one, his third, and final, power unit of the season (Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz is in the same boat as his crash yesterday has necessitated him taking his third power unit of the season). If he needs another one later in the season, he will have to take a grid penalty. He was using the same unit that was in his car at Silverstone. Honda had carried out repairs and passed it as fit for purpose, but clearly it was not. The ramifications of ‘that’ crash rumble on and none of them good for Red Bull.

Tense Start

We have everything set up for a very tense first lap. Red Bull must get past the two Mercedes to have any chance of winning and will have to go for it or accept coming third, which might not be so stupid. Verstappen doesn’t need another DNF so taking a big risk on the opening lap is dangerous.

The Mercedes is faster and on what looks to be the best strategy. This should be an old fashioned Mercedes one-two so long as everyone gets through the first few corners intact. Even if Red Bull where to take the lead they would then have faster cars behind them on the better race tyres. Keeping the lead through the pitstops would be very difficult.

Hamilton is the 1.50 favourite, Verstappen 3.50 with Bottas 11.00 and Perez 41.00. I can’t disagree with that.

The rest of the top 10 are covered by just 0.232 seconds. That is Gasly in fifth to Vettel in tenth. The opening lap will be frenetic as the drivers seize on any chance to make up a place or two on a track were overtaking is so hard. The top 4 should have the pace to open a gap to the midfield and there will be a race to get to the head of the chasing pack and to control the battle to be best of the rest.

Closely Matched

The long runs in Fridays practice showed Mercedes and Red Bull very closely matched, but fifth placed man, Pierre Gasly, looks to have his work cut out to stay there. His long run pace was some 0.4 seconds slower than the McLaren of Norris in sixth place. Gasly has been losing 1.6 places on average over a race distance whereas Norris has improved by 1.6 places. Charles Leclerc loses 1.1 places on average, Ocon improves by 1.1. Alonso is another improver by 0.9 places and Vettel 0.5.

The two Mercedes are the only cars in the top 10 starting on the medium compound and with those who qualified outside the top 10 free to choose which compound they start on, the driver in 11^th place will be looking to start on a more durable tyre and make up places at the first stop and try and make a one stopper pay dividends.

Riccardo is on the ‘second pole’ and he is a driver who improves on his grid position a lot, 2.3 places. That is a function of his lousy qualifying but his race pace is generally good. The McLaren’s long paces was the best of the rest and if they can’t make up places at the start, they should do at the pit stop. Ricciardo is in a good position with a free choice on tyres and good long run pace.

2021 Hungarian GP Raceday: Stroll Can Earn Points

Lance Stroll starts twelfth. We need Stroll in the points and he is in a decent position to do so. He and his team know how to mange the tyres and that is the key to moving up the order today. Stroll has made up nearly three places on average over a race distance and it will be interesting to see who finishes as the top Aston Marin Driver today, Vettel starting tenth or Stroll in twelfth? Hopefully both will make it, but Stroll looks to be in the better position.

The one driver who is completely out of position is Carlos Sainz. We had a small flutter on him to win the race and he looked like being very much in contention for a second row start but he got caught out by a gust of wind and went off the track with a session ending crash. He has a faster car then those around him, but this is a track that blunts much of that advantage. In the last five years only one or two drivers from outside the top 10 on the grid have finished in the points in each race. That is just eight drivers across five races and none have started lower than fourteenth, so Sainz has his work cut out and I would be in no rush to be taking the 1.44 for him to do so. He has the two Alfa Romeo’s in front of him and they were some 6 kmph faster down the straight than he was, so he might have to rely on the ‘B team’ to let him past.

2021 Hungarian GP Raceday Selections

We are already on Stroll to finish in the points and history suggests that he will not be guaranteed a top 10 finish, but he has a reasonable chance. Our bet on both Aston Martin’s hinges on Vettel hanging on to tenth or improving, so that one is marginal.

Lando Norris looks a decent price to finish in the top six. He has only failed to do so once this season. That was in Spain when he qualified ninth. Today he starts in sixth place and so long as he gets a clean start, he should be able to beat Gasly and hold off Leclerc. He can be backed at 1.83 to finish in the top 6 which is decent value, but we can be more ambitious and back him to be best of the rest at 2.75. He has been best of the rest in six of the ten races so far and has good chance of doing so again. The Alpha Tauri’s long run pace is never as good as its qualifying pace and Gasly was around 0.4 slower than the McLaren on the long runs in practice.

2021 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris winning driver without the big 4 @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes

At the risk of having too many eggs in the Stroll basket, the Canadian looks to have a big enough strategic advantage to finish ahead of his teammate.

2021 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Stroll to beat Vettel @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes

Ladbrokes have one interesting looking group bet. Group 2 comprises Sainz, Alonso, Vettel, Ocon and Stroll. I will give Stroll a miss this time but Ocon makes some appeal. He likes the track and has enjoyed plenty of success in the junior categories. He starts in eighth place, effectively pole position in the group. The Alpine was slightly quicker than the Aston Martins in free practice and if he can hold off his teammate, Alonso, in the other Alpine, Ocon has a reasonable chance to win the group.

2021 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ocon to win Group 2 @ 4.75 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt