Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tips
Last Sunday was a decent day for us. Brando didn’t let the side down and he was unlucky not to win at 33/1. Ebro River was given a great ride by Dusty Foley to score for us at 12/1. Wonder Elzaam ran a blinder and he just missed out on place money. Linda Barrett ran no sort of race and she may need more time and experience. The Great St Wilfrid and Hungerford Stakes are the big races of the day tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos’ Ripon and Newbury Saturday tips below.
1.45 Newbury – Denford Stakes (Listed)
An underwhelming start to the day with this six runner contest for juveniles. The race is restricted to 2yos yet to win at Pattern level and whose dam or sire won at 9.5f or further. Masekela sets the standard for Buick and Balding. The thrice raced son of El Kabeir was narrowly beaten in a Group 2 at Newmarket last time and he has been installed as the 5/4 favourite.
The biggest threat could come from Bayside Boy. Egan and Varian team up with this unexposed son of New Bay. He beat a horse called Find easily on debut and he had previously finished a length behind Lusail, a subsequent G2 winner at Goodwood. It looks like solid form and Varian won this race last year.
Seattle King is another unexposed first time out winner. Hector Crouch will ride this son of Kingman for Ralph Beckett but he’ll need to step up massively on his debut form. Richard Hannon won this in 2018 and he fires two bullets. Robjohn has heaps to find with the fav and Holiday would need to be something special to win this first time up. This doesn’t make any appeal as a betting heat and I’ll be watching with a view to the future. No bet.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.00 Newmarket – Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
Another disappointing turnout for the first live race of the day from Newmarket. Just seven fillies and mares go to post and you could make a solid case for almost all of them. We backed Makawee last time out at Goodwood. She did far too much too soon on the soft ground and she faded badly. This 6yo daughter of Farrh should be a lot more at home on today’s quicker ground. Three of her last five runs have been on soft and she has been well beaten. However, her last two outings on good to firm resulted in a Listed short head defeat to Alpinista at Goodwood (12f) and a solid Listed 3rd behind Roberto Escobarr and Red Verdon.
Three of her four wins have come on good to firm and her last two victories came at today’s trip of 14f. She last scored at Goodwood off 100 in September 2020, beating Tribal Craft by 5.5L. That was her last start in handicap company and she is only 1lb higher this afternoon. This should be a lot easier for her than the Group 2s she has run in the last twice and Ben Curtis is 1/3 with a place for these owners. At odds of 12/1 Makawee is the each way selection.
Newmarket Saturday Tips: Makawee e/w @ 12/1
2.20 Newbury – Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)
Eight horses are due to go to post for this 13.5f Group 3 heat. Even with the burden of a 3lb penalty, Hukum is the one to beat. Rated 114, 8lb superior to his nearest rival, Owen Burrows’ son of Sea The Stars won this race easily last season on good to soft. Since then he has added a Listed contest at soft at Goodwood (12f) and last time out he landed a G3 at York. The one worry would be if there was firm in the description as this horse’s best form has come on ground with a bit of juice in it. .
Trip Too sharp for red
I am a big fan of Red Verdon but I just think this trip may be on the sharp side. He looked as good as ever when winning at Sandown last time but that came over 2 miles. We backed Recovery Run last time out when he was 3rd at Goodwood off 96 (12f sft). He gave the impression that this sort of trip would suit but the drying ground won’t be to his liking.
Golden Pass won a Listed heat over 12f at Newmarket last time out and the quicker the ground is, the bigger her chance will be. The 4th home in that last race won a Listed heat on her next outing, boosting the form. The dam side of her pedigree doesn’t suggest that this trip will suit but her sire, Golden Horn, is a big stamina influence. She looked like she’d stay further last time out too. Hugo Palmer is flying and at 6/1, hopefully Golden Pass continues his good form.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tips: Golden Pass e/w @ 6/1
2.35 Newmarket – Grey Horse Handicap (Class 4)
Everybody loves a grey and this class 4 handicap is for horses of that colour only. George Bowen is the class horse in the race but the 9yo has looked in decline. However, he did go close off 83 back in late June and he is now 1lb lower. His last run on the July course was a winning one (off 85) but that was back in 2015. Off a mark of 74 it might be worth siding with My Style. Trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, this 5yo son of Holy Roman Emperor is a regular in this race.
He finished a close 3rd in 2019 as a 2yo off 72 under Georgia Dobie. The partnership made no mistake last season in their repeat bid, winning off the same rating. Horse’s with this fella’s ability don’t get to run in £20k+ races often and he is back to defend his crown off just 2lb higher. Last time out over C&D he finished 2.5L behind Devil’s Angel, another grey that reopposes today. He was getting 4lb from that rival on that occasion and today, with Dobie’s 5lb claim, he is now getting 8lbs. The ground looks ideal and at odds of 13/2, My Style is capable of going very close.
Newmarket Saturday Tips: My Style e/w @ 13/2
2.55 Newbury – BetVictor Handicap (Class 3)
Another trappy looking handicap and a field of 8 are due to go to post. There isn’t a whole lot of pace in this race so it might be worth taking a chance on Jack’s Point. Tom Clover’s son of Slade Power has failed to fire in three runs this season but the handicapper has relented and he is now just 1lb above his last winning mark. Talented claimer Laura Pearson takes off another 3lbs so this horse is dangerously well treated.
Front Runner
A confirmed front runner, his last victory came off 91 in June 2020 (Newmarket, 7f gd/fm). On his next outing he ran a cracker in the Buckingham Palace handicap at Royal Ascot, beat just 1.25L into 2nd off 96. On his final run for William Muir he was beat just 1.5L off 98 at Sandown (7f gd). His new connections splashed out 55k at the sales for this fella and his first run in the Victoria Cup at Ascot on unsuitably soft ground wasn’t that bad at all. He was drawn on the wrong side and he finished 1st of 9 in his group off 97.
Next time out he was again drawn on the wrong side at Ascot but he ran no sort of race. He was sweating up before his last outing at Newmarket and he finished last but the 8f trip was never likely to suit. He has had a nice little 6 week break since then and the booking of Laura Pearson suggests that connections expect an improved showing. Pearson has had 52 rides for Clover, returning 7 wins and 18 top 4 finishes. If she can steal an easy lead on Jack’s Point he could be hard to peg back. At odds of 28/1, a small each way interest is advised.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tips: Jack’s Point e/w @ 28/1
3.10 Ripon – Silver Trophy Handicap (Class 2)
This is a consolation race for the Great St Wilfrid and a maximum field of 20 will go to post. In recent years it has paid to be drawn high and this is a track that usually suits front runners. All but one of the winners since 2016 was drawn high and raced prominently. A few horses fit that profile but the one I prefer is Troubador for Mulrennan and Dods. This 4yo son of Poet’s Voice has won 4 of his 17 starts. He came into the season rated 94 but he comes into this contest off 10lbs lower. His best run came at York when beat 5L into 4th over 7f under unusually patient tactics.
This horse is best at 6f when ridden aggressively, like he was for his last win off 86 at Thirsk. All four of his wins have come when he has gone forward and his last two wins have come in races with decent pots. His form figures over 6f in turf races with a first prize of £10k+ read 1251022. Off 2lb lower than his last winning mark and from a good draw in stall 15, Troubador is well worth backing each way in the first time blinkers.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tips: Troubador e/w @ 25/1 NB (5 places)
3.30 Newbury – Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)
The feature race at Newbury on Saturday is the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes. 11 are due to line up in the stalls and I think Tactical is a fascinating contender for The Queen. This son of Toronado scored on his return in a Listed handicap at Newmarket (7f gd). His last three runs have been disappointing but on each occasion there has been soft in the ground description. Yes, he admittedly won a G2 on good to soft last season but his form figures on easy ground apart from that win read 50735.
This 3yo has had good or better on four occasions and his form figures read 1413. The 4th came in the G1 Middle Park when he was 3.5L behind Supremacy and 3L behind Lucky Vega. In the last 5 years this race has been won by older horses but in the six years previously, 3yos came out on top 4 times. Tactical gets 6lbs from the older male horses here and 3lbs from the only older filly, Dreamloper. His rating of 110 puts him right in the mix and with trip and ground to suit, a big run could be on the cards at odds of 22/1.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tips: Tactical e/w @ 22/1
3.45 Ripon – Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2)
We finish up this Saturday with the Great St Wilfrid Handicap. Just like in the consolation race, higher drawn prominent racers are worth following and the last four winners have ticked both those boxes. From stall 20, perhaps Intrinsic Bond can give Tracy Waggott the biggest winner of her career. This 4yo son of Intrinsic is a very smart operator. He will enjoy the small bit of juice in the ground at Ripon and he ran a cracker over C&D on his last outing behind Fortamour.
He was held up for a late run that day but he is versatile tactically. Waggott’s charge was always close to the pace when winning easily on his penultimate start at Catterick (6f gd/sft). He was handed a 10lb hike for that victory but his narrow defeat off 95 here last time proves he can be competitive off that sort of rating and he is just 1lb higher today.
Connor Beasley has ridden him the last twice and he keeps the faith. Intrinsic Bond has the plum draw in stall 20 and he has form figures of 252 at Ripon. Hopefully the aggressive tactics deployed at Catterick are utilised again and if they are, Intrinsic Bond could go extremely close for his Northern yard at odds of 16/1.
