York Ebor Festival Thursday Tips by Dave Stevos
York Ebor Festival Thursday Tips
We made a solid start to the Ebor Festival on Wednesday. Indian Sounds sweated up before the race and he ran poorly. Royal Patronage hacked up at 25/1, giving us a nice winner. Alenquer ran into a place for us too at 12s. Our NAP Third Realm ran a dreadful race. Either something was amiss or he needs it softer. Let’s hope for another profitable day tomorrow. Check out our York Ebor Festival Thursday Tips below.
1.50 – Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2)
Sandrine heads the market for this very interesting G2 for the fillies. Andrew Balding’s versatile daughter of Bobby’s Kitten is unbeaten after three runs, all on different surfaces at 6f. She scored by 1L on debut at Kempton, she then added the G3 Albany on heavy at Royal Ascot and last time on good to firm she landed another G2 at Newmarket. Balding’s charge had Desert Dreamer nearly 2L behind last time out with Hello You a further 0.5L back in 3rd. It is hard to see either of those fillies turning that form around.
Illustrating is 7/1 for Karl Burke and Danny Tudhope. This daughter of Showcasing ran well in the G2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, finishing 7th, beat 5.75L. Last time out she landed a valuable class 2 contest at Goodwood on soft. All three of her runs have come at 5f and at the odds, I prefer the each way claims of Vertiginous. Brian Meehan’s daughter of Oasis Dream is nicely bred and she was sent off at 5/2 on debut at Bath.
Green
Her inexperience cost her the race on that occasion but she still showed plenty in finishing 2nd. Her next outing came in the Albany at Ascot. She ran an absolute blinder up the middle to finish 5th, just under 5L behind the winner. She was 1L ahead of Illustrating (7/1 today), 1.75L ahead of Desert Dreamer (13/2 today) and 2L ahead of Nymphadora (20/1 today). Vertiginous is chalked up at around 33/1, so why is she so big?
At Kempton last time she looked an extremely awkward ride for William Buick. She had her head cocked and it looked like she hated going round the bend. She still only finished a neck behind Silken Petals, the same horse Sandrine beat by a length on debut. I am hoping that the return to a straight track is going to suit Brian Meehan’s filly and it is notable that Buick keeps the faith. Maybe her Albany run was a fluke, but I don’t think it was and if she focuses on her task today, she could sneak into the money at odds of 33/1.
York Ebor Festival Thursday Tips: Vertiginous e/w @ 33/1
2.25 – Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes (Class 2)
A field of 21 juveniles are due to go to post for this valuable sales race. Richard Hannon has made hay in these races in recent years and he has won the last two renewals of this one (and the last four out of five). He runs four in this year’s race, including the market leader System. Pat Dobbs keeps the ride on this 95 rated daughter of Galileo Gold and she is already a Listed winner.
Symphony Perfect went close in a similar heat to this at Newbury and she is chalked up at 12/1. Her rating of 86 leaves her with a bit to find with her stablemate, although she does carry 5lbs less. Rossa Ryan rides and Ryan Moore gets the leg up on Oh Herberts Reign. He is a maiden after three starts but it would be no surprise to see him run a big race. Three Dons is a rank outsider and he has it to do on all known form.
Adeb an Interesting Outsider
The last trainer to break the Hannon stranglehold on this race was Richard Fahey three years ago. He fires two bullets here and Adeb looks interesting under Hollie Doyle. This son of Cotai Glory has struggled on both starts on easy ground. However, he has looked a lot more at home on a sounder surface. It was good to firm when he ran a nice race to finish 2nd on debut at Nottingham (5f gd/fm). The 3rd and 4th from that race have both won since and it looked like Adeb would benefit from further.
It was good to soft when he disappointed next time over the same C&D. On his penultimate outing he got good ground at Beverley (5f) and he ran on strongly to score by over 2L. He stepped up to 6f on his last outing at Goodwood but the ground went against him. I thought he won with any amount in hand at Beverley and multiple winners have come out of that race. His rating of 83 might underestimate his true ability and at 40/1, a small each way interest is advised.
York Ebor Festival Thursday Tips: Adeb e/w @ 40/1 Nb (5 places)
3.00 – Clipper Logistics Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Another massive field of 20 will fight it out for glory in this mile handicap. Young Fire is a horse that has been completely overlooked by the bookies. Drawn in stall 4, this 6yo son of Fuisse has been running really well of late. He has finished in the first three on 4 of his last 5 starts, including a win off 96 at Haydock (7f sft). He also ran a cracker when finishing 6th behind La Trinidad over today’s C&D two runs back, beat 3.5L for the win off 100 on good ground. This fella has done most of his winning on soft but that run proved he is just as effective on good.
Last time out he ran another blinder when finishing a solid 2nd at Ascot off 100. His mark has remained unchanged and while you couldn’t say he was thrown in, he is more than capable of getting some place money granted luck in running. He’ll be dropped out the back by Jason Watson and he’ll need the gaps to appear at the right time. Maydanny (stall 3) is drawn beside him and Cruyff Turn is in stall 8 and I am hoping those two give Young Fire something to aim at.
He is now 6lbs better off with La Trinidad who he has 3.5L to find with and he only has 1L to find with Fame And Acclaim from that last York run. O’Meara also runs Escobar, another horse who cannot be discounted and he is the choice of stable jockey Danny Tudhope. Irish Admiral is another interesting one for Haggas and Buick. However, I think Young Fire is overpriced and he is the e/w NAP at odds of 40/1.
York Ebor Festival Thursday Tips: Young Fire e/w @ 40/1 NAP (6 places)
3.35 – Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1)
Last, but not least, on Thursday on ITV Racing is the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. Seven fillies and mares will line up in stalls for this 12f contest and Snowfall is odds on for Ballydoyle. This Deep Impact filly has absolutely laughed at her rivals on her last two starts in G1 company. She stepped up massively on her 2yo form when winning a G3 at York on her return (10f gd/sft). That was just a taste of what was to come. In the Epsom Oaks she spreadeagled the field, winning by 16L. In the Irish Oaks she had 8L to spare and the only possible threat to this exciting 3yo is Wonderful Tonight.
David Menuisier’s dual Grade 1 winner has won her last four in a row. She has now won six of her ten starts but worryingly for her legion of supporters, the three occasions she has run on ground with good in the description she has tasted defeat. She is probably 20lbs better on testing ground than she is on good and even though I am a big fan of this filly and her trainer, I think she is best left alone today.
Dream Can Go Well
The one to chase Snowfall home, or to pull off an upset if the fav misfires, could be Loving Dream. This daughter of Gleneagles is unexposed on good ground. She made her turf and seasonal debut at Wetherby in April, chasing home Noon Star. That filly got to within 4L of Snowfall on her next outing so it is more than decent form. Soft ground was no good for John Gosden’s charge next time at Lingfield but she left that tame effort well behind returned to faster conditions in a 12f Ascot G2. She was backed from 40s into 18s and she justified the market support, beating Eshaada by 0.75L.
That filly re-opposes today and the bookies think she will reverse the form off identical terms. Roger Varian’s 3yo is generally a 10/1 shot while Loving Dream is 18s. I am not too sure I agree with their opinion and I think the Gosden filly can uphold the form. Frankie is a positive booking and the ground will suit. Snowfall is the most likely winner but at odds of 18/1, Loving Dream represents a bit of each way value.
