York and Sandown Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
York And Sandown Saturday Tips
It was a mixed bag for us on Friday at York. Scarlet Dragon wasn’t on a going day and he never landed a blow. Gis A Sub did exactly as I hoped tactically but unfortunately Lusail proved too good. Moss Gill was the biggest disappointment. I thought he was certain to run big but he was taken off his feet by the scorching early pace and he just couldn’t get into it. The Ebor is the big race of the day on Saturday and I like a 40/1 poke in it. Check out our York and Sandown Saturday tips below.
1.50 York – Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
The hugely progressive Real World heads the market for this 9f Group 3. He is on a hat-trick after successive wins in the Hunt Cup and a Listed heat at Newbury. Those wins came over 8f and 10f respectively, both on good to firm ground. This 4yo son of Dark Angel was pulled out of his last engagement at Haydock because of soft ground so Saeed Bin Suroor and Marco Ghiani will be hoping that the forecast rain doesn’t amount to much. This is another step up in class for this horse and he needs to prove he is worthy of his official rating of 116.
The one I’ll be backing in this is the old boy of the field, Lord Glitters. This dashing grey is a Group 1 horse and he ran a huge race on his last outing in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot (8f gd/fm). He fnished 4th in that G1, just over 3L behind Palace Pier. It was a lovely run and he fared best of those held up off what was a muddling pace. This step back up to 9f looks ideal and he has a fine record in this race. He was the winner in 2018 and then in 2020 he was beat just over 1L into 3rd. Lord Glitters has to carry a penalty for his G1 Meydan win, which isn’t ideal, but he is the proven class act of this race. At odds of 10/1, I think he is the one to be on each way.
York And Sandown Saturday Tips: Lord Glitters e/w@ 10/1 NB
2.05 Sandown – Solario Stakes (Group 3)
Reach For The Moon is a warm order for this 7f Group 3 for the juveniles. He is odds on and it is no surprise given how the form of his Newbury Novice win was boosted by the 4L runner up Harrow at York during the week. He had already posted an excellent effort in Listed company behind Point Lonsdale. That form was also franked by the winner who hosed up in a G3 on his next outing at Leopardstown. The good to firm ground should be fine for the Queen’s son of Sea The Stars and he is most certainly the one to beat.
Austrian Theory is actually rated 1lb higher than the fav at 104. However, it is hard to know whether to take the form of his Goodwood G2 literally. It was soft ground, it was a small field and he had the run of the race. He was beaten less than 2L for the win but the result probably flattered the son of Awtaad. The one I’ll be taking on the favourite with is Cresta for Meade and Kingscote. This once raced son of New Bay did an awful lot wrong at Leicester (7f gd/sft) on debut but he still won.
Cosy Debut Win
He wasn’t the fastest away, he got caught out wide with no cover and yet he still managed to beat a previous Newmarket maiden winner quite cosily. The ground will be quicker at Sandown but this fella’s pedigree suggests that won’t be an issue. His sire New Bay has produced 3 winners from 36 runners (8.33%) on soft/heavy. On good or better he has 29 winners from 125 runners (23.2%). His dam is a full sister to Gabrial, a multiple winner on all sorts of ground.
Martyn Meade has his horses in fine fettle with 5 of his last 7 runners hitting the frame. He has a decent record with his 2yos at Sandown with 2 wins and 5 places from 15 runners. Richard Kingscote takes over from Ray Dawson in the plate and he is 2/7 with 2 places when riding for Meade. He is 1/1 on 2yos for him. The Queen’s horse is the one to beat but Cresta is open to any amount of improvement. So, at odds of 10/1, he is worth backing each way.
York And Sandown Saturday Tips: Cresta e/w @10/1
2.25 York – Melrose Handicap (Class 2)
We will be treated to not just one, but two heritage handicaps at York on Saturday. They are both run over 14f and this one is restricted to 3yos only. The big Southern yards have dominated this contest in recent years. The last Northern trainer to land this prize was Mark Johnston with Polarisation in 2015. Charlie Appleby has won it twice since and Andrew Balding won it last season with Coltrane. It is possible to win this race from a high draw but usually a single figure draw is preferable. The one I’ll be taking a punt on at monstrous odds is Alpine Stroll from stall 6.
We have backed this horse already this season and he ran an absolute shocker at Haydock. That run was simply too bad to be true and I think the ground was too soft. Since this son of Nathaniel switched to handicaps he has held his form well, apart from that blip. He ran a blinder on his first handicap start, finishing 2nd off 78, 7L behind Surrey Gold (10/1 today) at Newbury (11f gd/sft). Alpine Stroll is effectively in off 72 with Adam Farragher’s claim today. So, instead of conceding 3lbs to Surrey Gold, this time he is in receipt of a stone (17lbs swing).
Big Swing In Weights
Dhushan is likely going to be sent off favourite for this and Alpine Stroll has form with him too. He finished 4th in the Doncaster maiden in which Dhushan came 2nd and 3.75L separated them off level weights. Alpine Stroll is 23lbs better off when Farragher’s claim is considered. Last time out at Salisbury (12f gd) our selection was beat just 2.25L into 3rd and it looked like he was crying out for this sort of trip. He’ll go forward from his good draw in stall 6 and off a feather weight, he could well outrun his huge odds of 50/1.
York And Sandown Saturday Tips: Alpine Stroll e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)
2.40 Sandown – Atalanta Stakes (Group 3)
A field of 11 fillies and mares will fight it out for precious black type in this 8f Group 3. We backed Rosemary and Thyme earlier this season in the Listed Coral Distaff over today’s C&D (gd/sft). She got badly hampered at the start but she travelled into the race strongly and she was desperately unlucky to miss out on third by a head. She was 3.5L behind the winner Auria, who re-opposes today. However, that filly had the run of the race and with a kinder passage, Rosemary And Thyme could have finished closer.
It was a similar story for Hughie Morrison’s daughter of Camelot at Carlisle (7f gd/fm). She was denied a clear run at a crucial time in that Listed heat but she stayed on nicely to finish 4th and it looked like there was plenty left in the tank at the line. The step up in trip didn’t suit her last time but she was again unlucky in running. She ran much better than her finishing position and distance beaten suggests.
Well Bred
The bookies clearly do not rate this filly. She has been sent off at 40s, 100s and 66s on her three starts in pattern company and she is as big as 50s with some firms for this. Her dam is a half sister to G2 winner Berkshire and the dam of Ivawood so she is bred to be a black type filly. With a bit more luck she would already have black type in the bag so hopefully today is the day she gets it. At odds of 50/1, Rosemary And Thyme is the each way selection.
York And Sandown Saturday Tips: Rosemary And Thyme e/w @ 50/1 (4 places)
3.00 York – City Of York Stakes (Group 2)
Primo Bacio got stuck in the mud in France last time when she was beat just 2L in the Prix Rothschild. I am not sure why connections went there because this filly’s turn of foot is seen to best effect on quick ground. It was good ground when she hacked up here over 8f in a Listed heat back in May and it was good to firm when she was an unlucky 5th behind Snow Lantern, Mother Earth, Alcohol Free and Lady Bowthorpe.
That is seriously strong form and it will be fascinating to see how she fares dropped in grade against these older horses. Interestingly, Andrea Atzeni has been jocked off for Tom Marquand. He has been made the scapegoat but I think it’s a harsh call. He didn’t get this filly beat last time, it was the ground. Whether this drop back to 7f is going to suit her is up for debate but there is plenty of pace so she should be fine. The daughter of Awtaad holds obvious claims at odds of 11/4.
Blues The Threat
The biggest threat to Primo Bacio could come from Space Blues. Charlie Appleby’s son of Dubawi is the top rated and he ran a cracker on ground softer than ideal at Goodwood last time (7f sft). Already a Grade 1 winner, this fella has winning C&D form in the book on good to firm. He won’t mind a drop of rain, once it doesn’t turn properly soft.
Safe Voyage is an admirable sort and he hacked up in this race last season. He showed all his old ability remained when winning at Chester two runs ago. However, he has 3L to find with Space Blues on their meeting at Goodwood last July. Sir Busker would have a squeak on his Ascot 3rd behind Palace Pier and Glorious Journey is another one capable of hitting the frame if on a going day. I think the bookies have priced most of these up accordingly though. It’s not a race I am going to get involved in. I hope Primo Bacio wins it as I rate her very highly but for me, this is a no bet race.
York And Sandown Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.35 York – Ebor Handicap (Class 2)
This is the one we have all been waiting for. The Ebor is one of the most prestigious staying handicaps in the world and it looks as competitive a renewal as ever. There isn’t a whole lot of pace in this race so it could well be a messy affair. In slowly run races it often pays to be on the front end and Makawee is a mare that likes to be up with the pace. I actually put her up for a handicap here earlier this week when she was pulled out allegedly on account of the ground. However, the more likely reason she was withdrawn was because connections wanted her to take her chance in this.
This daughter of Farrh goes on most types of ground but anything from good to soft to good to firm would be perfect. She comes into this race off 101. That’s just 1lb higher than she was when slamming Tribal Craft by 5.5L at Goodwood (14f gd/sft) last September. She was conceding 7lbs to that rival and today she is 10lbs better off. Yes, Tribal Craft admittedly reversed the form over today’s C&D in May. However, the ground was too soft for Makawee and this will be her first handicap run since that Goodwood romp.
Course Form
Another positive for this 6yo is her previous course experience. She has won here over 12f and she has finished out of the first two only twice from eight visits. On her last outing over today’s C&D she finished just 2.75L behind Roberto Escobar. She is 1lb better off with him today. He is as short as 16/1 for today’s race, Tribal Craft is 10/1 and Makawee is 40/1. You can put a line through this mare’s last outing on account of the soft ground at Goodwood. If she gets an easy time in front she could bounce back here and a big run could be on the cards today at odds of 40/1.
