Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Preview and Tips
Dandalla ensured Friday was a profitable day but it could have been much better. Chookie Dunedin ran a massive race but despite being beaten just 2 lengths for the win, his late surge was only good enough for 8th. Neither of our other selections figured and we had to make do with just one winner. Hopefully we can get another one or two on the board tomorrow. Check out our Ayr and Newbury Saturday preview and tips below.
1.55 Ayr – Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed)
The rain arrived at Ayr on Friday afternoon and with 8mm forecast, the ground could change. It was good to firm there yesterday but if the forecast is correct, it is likely to be on the easy side of good on Saturday. One in this that should enjoy the conditions is Juan De Montalban for David O’Meara and Jason Watson. This son of Lope De Vega struggled over 14f on his debut for this yard last time out. He is a better operator at today’s 10f trip though and he is unexposed at this distance.
Initially trained by Andrew Balding, this horse got off the mark at the third attempt at Goodwood (9f hvy). That was a decent performance but he was even better on his handicap debut at Sandown (10f gd). He scored by a length off 84, beating Fabilis. The runner up was racing off 91 and he has since won off 95 and he is now rated 99.
Juan De Montalban then headed to Italy for a G3 at Capannelle (11f gd) and he chased home Tokyo Gold. That horse went close in a G1 next time so it is pretty solid form. After that run he was picked up at the sales in July for a cool 400k He now has his second start for O’Meara at a more suitable trip. If he repeats that Italian form here he won’t be far away. So, at odds of 16/1, he is the each way pick.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Juan De Montalban e/w @ 16/1
2.15 Newbury – World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)
There is also an ease in the ground at Newbury where it is currently good to soft. Only light showers are forecast so conditions are unlikely to change dramatically. Judging by the times on Friday, it was closer to good than soft. That will suit some of these better than others. Khaadem’s supporters will be hoping the ground continues to dry out. He is a proper tool when conditions are quick and he has finished 1st and 2nd on his two previous visits to Newbury. The son of Dark Angel is joint top rated with Tis Marvellous (109) and they both deserve their positions at the top of the market.
We backed Moss Gill last time at York but he ran a stinker. He simply couldn’t lie up with the scorching early pace and he finished well down the field. Connections now reach for the first time blinkers and if he takes to them, there is no doubt he has the ability to play a massive part in this race. Only a neck separated him and King’s Lynn at Haydock in May with the Queen’s horse coming out on top. King’sLynn was also well beat last time out over 6f at this track and he wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much.
Dark Horse
The dark horse in this race is Makanah. Julie Camacho’s charge was last sighted finishing an unlucky 2nd off 99 at Musselburgh (5f gd). He has had a wind op since then so he must have made a noise during that run and if that’s the case, the form deserves to be marked up. With a rating of 100 he clearly has a bit to find with the principals but a couple of the more fancied ones have questions to answer. If David Probert rides Makanah to place rather than win, I think he could sneak into the money at odds of 25/1.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Makanah e/w @ 25/1
2.30 Ayr – Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2)
If the Bronze Cup is anything to go by, middle to low draws will be favoured in this 6f cavalry charge. From a lovely starting berth in stall 6, Soldier’s Minute looks a fascinating contender off 92. The son of Raven’s Pass won’t mind the rain and he has previous at this meeting. In 2019 he ran a cracker in the big one, beat just 2.5L for the win off a mark of 96. In 2020 he ran in this race off 98 and he again ran a blinder, finishing just 2L behind the winner Nahaarr. He is back for another shot at the title and this time, the handicapper has given him a real chance.
Keith Dalgleish’s charge is finally back down to the mark he won easily off at York in 2019, his last win on turf. He has won a couple on the all weather since then, off marks of 95 and 98. His three runs this season have been below par but connections have likely been preparing him for a crack at this race. A bit of an ease won’t inconvenience him and the draw Gods have been kind. Dalgleish has his horses in tip-top shape and Soldier’s Minute looks a rock solid each way bet at odds of 18/1.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Soldier’s Minute e/w @ 18/1 NAP (6 Places)
3.05 Ayr – Firth Of Clyde Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3)
A refreshingly big field of 15 fillies will be looking for some black type in this 6f Group 3. The form of Rishes Bar’s debut win was boosted in a big way by Vertiginous here on Friday. It was some performance by the daughter of El Kabeir to beat that rival on her first racecourse start. Granted normal improvement, she should be more than capable of making her presence felt in this.
The only worry would be if the ground softened considerably. That would be an unknown and it looked like she relished the good to firm surface at Haydock last time. Her dam is a half sister to Pretty Pollyanna who also loved fast ground. Consequently, I’m happy to keep a watching brief on this occasion.
Rain In Choux’s Favour
One horse who will be delighted with the rain is Choux. Trained by Dave Evans, this filly is 2/4, with both wins coming on easy ground. Her two runs on good to firm were poor but last time out she landed a Listed contest in France over 5f. She scored by a neck from Papa Don’t Preach and that horse ran a blinder in the G2 Flying Childers at Doncaster on his next outing.
The manner of that Deauville win suggested that stepping back up to 6f would pose no problems. She finished off her race very strongly and there is no shortage of stamina on the dam side of her pedigree. An official rating of 95 leaves her with a fair bit to find with some of these but there could be more to come from her over this trip and on this ground. At odds of 16/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Choux e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
3.25 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2)
11 are due to go to post for this valuable handicap and you couldn’t fully discount any of them. After a couple of poor runs following his superb effort at York, Strait Of Hormuz shaped as though he was coming back to form last time out at Doncaster (10f gd/fm). In a race that wasn’t run to suit hold up types, he fared best of those that were dropped out. He finished off pretty nicely for 4th, beat just 3L for the win and just 1.25L off 2nd.
The handicapper generously dropped him 2lbs to 92 for that run. He is now just 1lb higher than when beat 0.25L in the John Smith’s Cup in July. The presence of Mo’Assess and Injazati should ensure that this race is run at a good clip and that will suit Strait Of Hormuz. Andrea Atzeni looks a good booking and he is 1/5 with 2 places when riding for Jedd O’Keefe. Hopefully he can get this fella settled early and if he can avoid traffic problems, Strait Of Hormuz is more than capable of winning this at odds of 12/1.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Strait Of Hormuz e/w @ 12/1 NB (4 Places)
3.40 Ayr – Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2)
The big one and as ever, it looks a minefield. I have had my eye on Lahore for this race for some time and he just about snuck in off 97. He ran a massive race in this last season off 104 and he is now 7lbs lower. Yes, he has form figures of 0600 this season which are hardly inspiring. However, I have no doubt that this race has been the plan since his great run last year and Phil Makin has got him here off a very nice mark.
Course Form
In 2019 he also ran a blinder at this meeting off 93 in the Silver Cup. He was only beat 5.5L by Golden Apollo and it was a better run than his finishing position of 11th suggests. His last win came off 101 at York in July 2020 and he is comfortable on ground ranging from good to soft. He finished 6th in a Listed heat at York three runs back and even that would give him a squeak in this. Lahore was only 1L behind Snazzy Jazzy and he is 4lbs better off with him today.
The son of Elusive Quality was also only 0.75L behind Dakota Gold who is rated 111 and it was a fine run considering 5f is not his optimum distance. The negative for Lahore is his draw in stall 19. It looked like low to middle numbers were favoured on Friday but that may change with the ease in the ground. Rowan Scott will ride this lad cold and he’ll try and produce him with a late run. As ever, luck will be required in a race of this nature but this horse is well handicapped, he has solid C&D form and at odds of 66/1, I think he is well worth backing each way with a few firms paying 7 places.
Ayr and Newbury Saturday Tip: Lahore e/w @ 66/1 (7 places)
4.00 Newbury – Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
I am keeping the faith with Gis A Sub in this Group 2. We have backed him the last twice but on the first occasion, he didn’t try. Kevin Stott took a huge pull after he broke quickly at Goodwood, strange tactics on a confirmed front runner. Thankfully, last time at York he let Gis A Sub bowl along in front and he ran a massive race to finish 2nd behind Lusail. Twilight Jet was back in 3rd and he didn’t do the form any harm when finishing a solid 3rd in a Doncaster G2 next time (Lusail 4th).
Six furlongs looks like this fella’s optimal trip and he now gets the assistance of James Doyle in the saddle. It looks like there isn’t many in this race who’ll want to go forward so I am hoping that Gis A Sub gets an easy time of it in front. If James Doyle can poach an early lead this fella could be hard to peg back and I think he should be shorter than 8/1. At that price, Gis A Sub is worth chancing each way.
