2021 Arc De Triomphe Tips by Dave Stevos
2021 Arc De Triomphe Preview
A field of 16 horses remain on course to run in the 2021 Arc De Triomphe at Paris-Longchamp. This race has been kind to us the last couple of seasons. In 2019 we were on Waldgeist at 20/1 and last year we nicked a place with Gold Trip at 50s. So who are we backing in 2021? Check out our preview and free tips below.
2021 Arc De Triomphe Preview – The Main Contenders
Tarnawa
Trainer: Dermot Weld
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Odds: 11/4
Dermot Weld has a very impressive CV when it comes to winning big races abroad. However, as of yet, The Arc has eluded him. He looks to have a great chance of ending the drought this year with Tarnawa. This 5yo daughter of Shamardal was useful at 2yo and 3yo but since she has turned 4 her form has gone to a different level. Since the resumption of the 2020 season she has won five of her six races, including three Group 1s in a row. Her sole defeat came last time out in controversial circumstances behind St Mark’s Basilica at Leopardstown (10f gd).
The O’Brien horse drifted off a true line and Colin Keane was carried towards the stands side. She couldn’t get by the winner and she finished 2nd, beat 0.75L. That trip was probably on the sharp side for her anyway and she’ll be a lot more comfortable over the 12f distance at Longchamp. Rain would be another plus and there is plenty forecast. She is 2/2 at Longchamp and Weld has booked the masterful Christophe Soumillon for the ride. This mare ticks an awful lot of boxes and she looks sure to run a massive race.
Adayar
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Odds: 11/4 (must be supplemented)
Adayar, the 2021 Epsom Deby Winner, is fighting it out for favouritism with Tarnawa. This son of Frankel wasn’t a certain runner but his yard revealed at the weekend that he would be supplemented. The 3yo wasn’t considered by many as a potential Derby winner after his Lingfield run behind Third Realm (11.5f sft). However, he avenged that defeat and reversed the form in spectacular fashion at Epsom (12f gd/sft). He scored by nearly 5L from Mojo Star and he was arguably even better next time out at Ascot.
Charlie Appleby’s charge lowered the colours of Mishriff in the King George (12f gd/fm) and it was a career best performance. Love was 3L back in 3rd and Broome was 6L behind her in 4th. The two Ballydoyle horses re-oppose in The Arc and on likely softer ground it is hard to see them turning that form around. William Buick has abandoned Hurricane Lane for Adayar, a bold move considering he won the Leger last time out. Very testing ground would be a slight concern but he should be ok and he rates as a danger to all.
Hurricane Lane
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: James Doyle
Odds: 6/1
I’d imagine James Doyle was thrilled to hear he’d be riding this son of Frankel in The Arc. Charlie Appleby has a serious crop of 3yos and this talented horse won the Leger last time out. A C&D winner in the Grand Prix De Paris (12f v sft) back in July by 6L, this fella has tasted defeat just once. That was in the Epsom Derby when he finished 3rd, nearly 8L behind Adayar. That’s probably the reason Buick has chosen Adayar ahead of him. However, Epsom is a unique track and I wouldn’t be at all surprised were Hurricane Lane to markedly close the gap to his stablemate on Sunday.
James Doyle’s mount has now won three Group 1s on the spin. He landed the Irish Derby, the Grand Prix De Paris and then the Leger. The one worry would be whether this may be one race too far for him. He has already run in six races this season (Adayar has only run in four) and that freshness could make the difference. However, if he turns up in peak condition he’ll be a tough nut to crack and of the market leaders, he probably represents the best value at 6/1 given his excellent form.
Snowfall
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Odds: 6/1 (must be supplemented)
Another 3yo, this one a daughter of Deep Impact. Before she ran at Longchamp last time, Snowfall was amongst the favourites for this race. However, she got caught out in a slowly run race and she could only manage 2nd behind Teona. Prior to that run she had won 4/4 in 2021 by a combined distance of over 30 lengths. She won the Epsom Oaks by 16L and the Irish version by 8.5L in two scintillating displays. Aidan O’Briens filly then scored in the Yorkshire Oaks, beating Albaflora by 4L.
Snowfall was sent off at 1/5 in the Prix Vermeille (12f gd) here last time so it was a shock that Teona was able to lower her colours, especially on good ground. It seems that Snowfall is best suited by a sounder surface so any rain would be a huge worry. Her record on ground softer than good is poor. She was beat 11L and 12L on both her previous runs on soft and by 9.5L her sole start on yielding. The drier the weather is, the better her chance will be but looking at the weather forecast, she is unlikely to get her optimal conditions. So, at 6/1, she is best left alone.
Chrono Genesis
Trainer: Takashi Saito
Jockey: Oisin Murphy
Odds: 10/1
The Japanese challenge in this year’s Arc is headed by Chrono Genesis. Champion jockey Oisin Murphy takes the ride on Takashi Saito’s mare and she comes into The Arc on the back of a comfortable win in a G1 at Hanshin (11f gd/fm). This 5yo daughter of Bago has shown most of her best form on a sound surface. She has had just one run on yielding, in a Kyoto G2, and she won. It is hard to weigh up a lot of her form but she did run in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan back in March and she found just Mishriff too good. She was only beat a neck by him and on that form she doesn’t have a whole lot to find with Adayar.
In fact, Chrono Genesis was only getting 4lbs from Mishriff in Dubai whereas Adayar was getting 11lbs from him at Ascot. So, if you take that form literally, the Japanese mare should beat the Godolphin colt considering she is giving him just 3lbs. She is by an Arc winner (on soft) so it is no surprise to see connections targeting this race. However, whether this mare will be as effective on testing ground remains to be seen. The quicker conditions are, the better her chance will be so if you are planning on backing her, it would make sense to see what the ground is like before you put your money down.
Dark Horses
It is 25/1 bar the top five in the market. Given the ground concerns for a couple of the shorter priced ones, there may well be some serious e/w value to be found. Frankie Dettori rides Love for Ballydoyle and if the ground came up good or better she would look massive at around 25/1. However, she has failed to produce her best on easy ground and if it rains, she could struggle.
Deep Bond is Japan’s second contender and he scored over C&D in the G2 Prix Foy last time out. The 4yo son of Kizuna has won on yielding but again, the vast majority of his form is on good or better. He made all in the Prix Foy so he could be an early pace angle for this race. Teona represents Roger Varian and she shocked Snowfall last time out (12f gd). She is by an Arc winner in Sea The Stars but she too has shown her best form on a sounder surface.
The most interesting UK challenger at a big price is Alenquer. The 3yo son of Alderflug is best on testing ground. It was heavy when he won his G1 at Ascot and he ran well considering the poor ride he was given when 3rd behind Hurricane Lane over this C&D in July. He stayed on nicely over an inadequate 10f trip on his last outing at York behind Mishriff and this ground/trip will be much more to his liking. Yes, he has 7L to find with Hurricane Lane but he was given too much to do and at odds of 33/1 he could run into a place.
The French Challenge
The bookies don’t think the home team stand a chance in the 2021 Arc De Triomphe. According to the oddsmakers, Raabihah represents their best hope of success and I have to agree. The daughter of Sea The Stars was a good 5th in The Arc last season, 4L behind Sottsass. She didn’t get the clearest of runs and she finished off very well. She has done most of her winning on better ground. However, it was heavy in this race last season so she has already shown she can run to a high level in more testing conditions. She only has 3L to find with Tarnawa on their meeting on good ground here in 2020 and she got back to winning ways impressively last time at Deauville (12.5f gd/sft). 33/1 looks a big price about Jean-Claude Rouget’s charge.
Will Sealiway Stay?
Sealiway is a fascinating contender for Cedric Rossi. He chased home St Mark’s Basilica in the French Derby at Chantilly last time (10.5f sft). He didn’t have the pace to go with the winner but he kept on well to hold 2nd, beat just 1.75L. That was the furthest trip this 7f G1 winner has tackled. That victory came on heavy ground at this track, the most testing conditions he has encountered thus far.
The 3yo son of Galiway isn’t the speediest of horses but he just keeps on galloping. Bar a rare below par run in the French 2000 Guineas, he has form figures of 112 on ground softer than good (the first and third runs coming at the highest level).
The softer the ground is, the more it will suit this 3yo. The biggest question mark is whether he will stay the 12f trip. His sire, Galiway, is by Galileo so that does offer hope. His Kendargent dam never won beyond 7f but she is a half sister to a 22f hurdles winner and her dam is related to a 13f flat winner. Sealiway’s running style suggests 12f is well worth a crack and if it comes up soft or worse it will blunt the speed of some of his rivals. On a line through St Mark’s Basilica he has nothing to find with Tarnawa so at odds of 40/1, he could be one to sneak into the frame.
2021 Arc De Triomphe: The Verdict
So, after all that, who is the most likely winner of the 2021 Arc de Triomphe? To be honest, it’ll all come down to the underhoof conditions. After 5mm rain fell on Monday the ground eased slightly to good to soft, good in places. There is substantial rain forecast for Saturday (11mm) and even more on Sunday (26mm). If that happened, it would be soft at best and some of the less fancied ones would come into the reckoning.
If there is any good in the description, I would expect to see Tarnawa, Adayar and Snowfall fight out the finish, possibly finishing in that order. Raabihah will also act on good to soft ground and she cannot be discounted. The Japanese pair would come into it on decent ground too. However, my two picks at big odds are Sealiway and Raabihah. They both have form that ties in with Tarnawa, the former will enjoy any rain that falls, while the latter won’t really mind what the weather does.
Similar Profile To Sotsass
Raabihah ran a cracker in 5th this race last season on heavy and now that she is a year older and stronger she could improve on that position. She has had just one run at 12f since, and that resulted in a dominant G2 victory last time out. Her trainer, Jean Claude Rouget, won The Arc last season with Sottsass who had a similar sort of profile. She has clearly been trained for this race, she’ll handle both good to soft and heavy ground and she absolutely hacked up last time over the Arc trip. At 33/1, she has to be worth backing each way.
Sealiway has been lined up for this race since his excellent run at Chantilly. He did have a minor setback after that race but his connections have reported he is in excellent shape now. It is hard to forget his decisive win at this meeting last season on heavy and he ran the best race of his career behind St Mark’s Basilica last time out. If the rain comes, heavy will suit him and at 40/1, he has to be worth a small interest e/w. With these two selections we should get a run for our money no matter what the weather does. Good luck with whatever your bets are and hopefully it’s a brilliant race!
