2021 World Grand Prix

Double in, in Dublin is no more. The 2021 World Grand Prix has a new home, the Morningside Arena in Leicester, but the format remains the same. It is the only tournament on the calendar which requires the players to start and finish on a double. Miss the double and no score is recorded.

Obviously hitting the double as quickly as possible is crucial. The game is then as normal, but the pressure is on the player from the very first dart. We regularly see players having double trouble trying to close out a leg, but in this format, they can have it to start with as well.

Some players take to the format easily, others struggle as it is mentally a tough format and panic can quickly set in after three or four missed doubles. All players have their favourite double and will be practicing hard on it in the build up to the start on Sunday. They should also be practicing plan B, their second favourite double just in case they have a problem with plan A. No plan C is required because if you have missed three darts at one and three at another, you’ve likely lost the leg.

Most players will go for double 20 as that gives the most points scored, but it is more important to get into the leg ASAP, so any double will do. Jonny Clayton’s favourite double in double 1 but that might be taking things too far.

2021 World Grand Prix: Cream Rises To The Top

It may be a different format, but it is still the usual suspects that win the title. Taylor won 11 titles, MVG 5, Wade 2 and one each for Warriner, Lloyd, Thornton, Gurney and Price. Out of that list of winners only Thornton was a surprise, but he was already a major winner and was ranked number 5 after his win.

Last year saw the tournament played behind closed doors and Dirk Van Duijvenbode, becoming the first debutant to reach the final since the tournaments inaugural year. It is unusual for players with little tournament form to have a long run. Mensur Suljovic, Glen Durrant and Stephen Bunting reached the semi-final on their first year and Nathan Aspinall made the quarter final on his first visit. Of the 26 players here this week who have played this event before, 16 lost their debut match, so tournament experience does seem to be more important than usual.

The tournament is played in a sets scoring format with each set the best of five legs. The first round is just a best of 3 sets, so it is the round where shocks are most likely. Being able to settle quickly will be an asset.

Looking at this tournament is always a dilemma. Do you do as normal and look at form and event form as usual with more weighting going to event form than for a ‘normal’ tournament. Or do you drill into the double statistics to find the likely winner?

Pay Attention To Recent Form

The answer is that it is a blend of all three. The trouble with doubles statistics is which ones do you look at, how far back in time do you go, how many darts is a representative sample and so on. To get a more representative sample of say percentage of treble 20’s hit on stage, is 10 throws enough? 50? 100? 200? The bigger the sample the more accurate the statistics should be, but then you are looking at historic form, rather than recent form, and I for one, am a bigger fan of recent form, what the players are doing now, not over the last five years.

There is no perfect answer, but it is useful to look at the various doubling stats to get a feel for a player’s proficiency on the outer ring and looking at the likely popular opening targets of double 20, double 18 and double 16. Checkout % are also relevant and there is more data available for those stats, and if you are hitting the doubles to checkout, it helps your confidence for the start of the next leg. Overall, it is important not to get too bound up in doubling analysis and overlook a players all round game, good scoring is still the mainstay of any tournament. Form, form, form, it is always about form.

Doubles Stats

Looking at performance on the ‘big three’ starting doubles of D20, D18, D16, this year only, stage matches only and with a minimum of 50 darts thrown, there are only three players who make the top 20 in all three, Peter Wright, Jonny Clayton and Dimitri van den Bergh.

If you look at the same doubles over the last five years the top performer was Glen Durrant, followed by MVG, Wright, De Sousa, Chisnall, Anderson, Ross Smith, Price, Cullen and Cross.

Only Peter Wright appears twice on those lists, and I would say he is the most proficient player when it comes to doubles.

2021 World Grand Prix: The Players (with tournament record/odds)

Seeded Players

1. Gerwyn Price 1/1/2/QF/1/W  5.00

Back to winning ways after his injury scare at the World Series finals. Price won the Hungarian Darts Trophy three weeks and last weekend won the Gibraltar Darts Trophy. That was his fifth title in 2021, which started with World Championship. Price is the defending champion, and the title has only been successfully defended twice in the last fourteen years, once by Taylor and once by MVG. Price has defended a major title before, the Grand Slam in 2019.

The Iceman is the obvious favourite given his tournament record and recent form of just one loss in his last ten. If we consider checkout % as a measure of accuracy on the doubles, Price is ranked 11th in 2021 with 42.11%. He is the third ranked player in terms of hitting D20 in 2021. A deserved favourite and hard to oppose.

2. Peter Wright 1/1/2/1/1/QF/RU/2/1  7.00

Snakebites recent form sees four losses from his last ten, but he has won four Players Championship titles and the World Matchplay in 2021. His 2021 checkout% is 42.06%, 12th best. Wrights’ tournament record is not great for a player of his standing and that, combined with his slightly disappointing recent form is a worry for the joint second favourite. A great hitter of doubles which means he must be considered, and it would be no surprise to see him lift the trophy.

3. Michael van Gerwen 1/W/QF/W/RU/W/1/W/W/QF  6.50

Van Gerwen ended his win drought at the Nordic Darts Masters a couple of weeks ago, but he lost to Gerwyn Price at last weekend’s Gibraltar Darts Trophy. He has won nine of his last ten matches and his scoring remains top drawer, but that air of authority has gone. He is no longer the number one player, but he has a terrific tournament record and remains a contender. MVG is ranked 7th for 2021 checkout % at 43.05%. That said, his dented confidence is shown by him missing more big doubles these days, the leg winners, the match winning doubles. He is just not as deadly as when at his peak.

4. James Wade 1/QF/W/1/1/W/SF/1/SF/RU/1/1/1/1/2/1  29.00

A two-time champion and a tournament expert, until 2015. Since reaching the final in 2014, Wade has won just the one match in this tournament. For a player regarded as the best finisher in the game, a tournament with the emphasis on doubles should suit him, which it did. His checkout % in 2021 is 45.66% and he is the top ranked player in that department. His recent form sees four losses from his last ten and he isn’t a prolific winner of titles anymore.

5. Dimitri van Den Bergh 1/2  17.00

Van den Bergh has only played in two previous events and won just one match. It is hard to say if it is a format which suits him. He is ranked 39th for checkout % at 39.44% and his recent form is six wins from his last ten. His odds look on the short side. In 2021 he is ranked second for D18, fifth for D20 and fourteenth for D16, so he does look to have the tools to start and finish well, but his last five matches saw an overall average of just 87.6. He will need to have rediscovered his scoring boots if he is to have a good run this week.

6. Gary Anderson 2/QF/1/1/QF/SF/2/RU/QF/2/QF  26.00

This has been a frustrating tournament for Anderson. He has had plenty of good runs but only made one final. His recent form is six wins from his last ten but Anderson is not seeming to be that interested anymore. He does up his game for the major championships, but he had a long break recently and said that he practiced for just wo days before his return at the Nordic Darts Masters, and it showed. He says he has other interests outside darts now but if you don’t put the work in, it is unlikely that he will get the results of old. If he is firing on the T20 then he can be competitive but I’m not sure he has a strong plan B.

7. Jose de Sousa 1  13.00

A first round loser last year on debut but De Sousa is good on the doubles, ranked 4th with a checkout % of 43.73%, so he is not just a big 180 hitter. His recent form however is a real concern. His scoring has dropped off and he has lost five of his last ten. De Sousa’s odds are too short given his recent form.

8. Dave Chisnall 1/2/RU/1/2/SF/2/QF/RU/SF  34.00

The hunt for that elusive major title goes on for Chizzy. Many think this is the tournament which gives him the best chance, others that he’ll never get one. With the passing of every year, the latter looks more likely. Chisnall has lost five of his last ten and has had a quiet season. He is ranked 16th with a checkout rate of 41.07% and he has been a good player on the doubles throughout his career. Twice a runner up reflects his doubling prowess but his form in 2021 hasn’t caught the eye.

Notable Non-Seeded Players

Mensur Suljovic SF/1/SF/SF/1/1  81.00

We have not seen an awful lot of Mensur in 2021 but since he returned to action at the Hungarian Darts Trophy, he has won seven of his eleven matches, lead Austria to the World Cup final and was runner up in last weekend’s Gibraltar Darts Trophy. He lost the final 0-8 to Gerwyn Price but it has been a successful return and while his scoring has been anything but consistent, he is winning matches. His tournament record is equally inconsistent, with three semi-finals and three first round defeats. Definitely worth consideration.

Ryan Searle 1/  81.00

Searle is in good form having won eight of his last ten matches and he is ranked first for D20 hitting in 2021. He lost in the first round on debut last year so has no tournament form to speak of, but the four past winners of this event in this years field, all lost their first match. His best form is on the floor and a run to the last 16 in this year’s World Championship being his best result in a major.

Luke Humphries Debut  51.00

Hard to fancy as a debutant but he has been in decent form this year reaching the final of the UK Open, the final of three players championships and the semi-final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy. His win is coming, and he can’t be ruled out despite being on debut.

Brendan Dolan 2/1/1/1/RU/SF/1/1/1/2/1  51.00

Famously became The History Maker when he hit the first nine dart leg in the double in format on TV. That was back in 2001 when he was runner up. He made the semi-final the following year but outside of that has only won two matches in the event. He deserves consideration as he has been in good form in 2021, winning a players championship title and playing his best darts of his career. His performance stats are up there with the best and his checkout % in the last 12 months is second only to James Wade. His odds are becoming more reflective of his form and the huge value has gone.

Nathan Aspinall QF/1  34.00

The Asp reached the quarter final on debut in 2019 but he has drifted in terms of his form in 2021. However, there are signs that he is on the way back to somewhere near his best. His scoring had dropped off but more recently we were seeing bigger scores and last weekend he averaged 102.7 and he reached the semi-final in Gibraltar. He has some decent tournament form, and his most recent form is good, so another one for the short list.

Daryl Gurney 1/1/QF/W/SF/1/1  51.00

Superchin certainly has good tournament form, and this was his first major championship title. He isn’t defending any big money this week which takes the pressure off, and this is a good opportunity to win a few matches and move back into the Top 16 in the OOM.

His recent form sees six wins from his last ten and there are signs that his game is heading in the right direction. He is moving back up the 180’s table and putting in the hours on the practice board. His win in 2017 was built around a solid plan. He started on double 16 and then used the treble 19, not moving back up the board and having to reset. He knows how to play this format and if  he gets that tricky first round win, then he could have another good run.

Gurney was a 34.00 shot in 2017 and that was a good bet as he was in very good form going into the tournament, and the result was not as big a surprise as the odds implied. He is 51.00 this year, but not in as good form. I’d want something more like 67.00 or even 81.00 before having a bet.

Ante Post Selections

With the cutthroat format in the first round, this might be a tournament were holding fire until after the first round is not a bad idea, especially if you are looking at backing one of the short priced fancied players.

2021 World Grand Prix: First Quarter

Gerwyn Price is the favourite to win the tournament and obviously this quarter. Much is being made of his first-round match with Michael Smith, but Smith has poor tournament record, winning just two first round matches from eight and never getting beyond the second round. Smith hasn’t beaten Price in their last nine matches. Smith may have the best throw in darts, but in terms of mental strength Price is in a different league, and this format demands bottle.

Price may be more vulnerable if he faces Merv King in round two. King has some good event form with a couple of quarter finals, a semi-final and was runner up in 2011. King can still bother Price, is 4-4 in their H2H’s and won their only match in 2021. However, King has to beat debutant Martijn Kleermaker in the first round which won’t be easy.

Match Of The Round

Dave Chisnall faces Mensur Suljovic in the first round, one of the matches of the first round. They have met ten times and six went to a deciding leg. Both have good tournament form, and both could have a good week, but I’ll take Suljovic. The Gentle may have to play Price and the Welshman has won their last six matches.

The last two in the quarter are Cullen and Ross Smith. Cullen reached the quarter final last year and if he can beat Smith, he gets Chizzy or Mensur for the chance to most likely play Price in the quarter. Cullen has a good record against Price, winning five of their last ten. Three hard matches if he is to reach the semi-final and his odds are 34.00, so a bit too short for me.

This is not an easy quarter. Price is in brilliant form and he should come through, but Chisnall, Suljovic and Cullen are not without a chance. However, I have to go with the best player in the world to come through to make the semi-final.

Second Quarter

James Wade is the top seed in this quarter. A two-time champion, a formidable player on the doubles, but has had a dire run, winning just one match in the last six Grand Prix. He faces Damon Heta in the first round which is not going to be easy. However, the Aussie debutant is only in reasonable form and debutants tend to struggle. Wade would then face the winner of Bunting vs. Gurney. Wade has struggled against Bunting, only winning three of their eleven matches. Wade has beaten Gurney to nil in two of their last three matches, so he may prefer to face Superchin.

Van den Bergh faces Ryan Searle in the first round and that is another cracker. Searle is making his debut but is in better form than Van den Bergh. Dimitri has the game to go well in this format, but Searle is the best D20 hitter his year and that could make him hard to beat. The winner will likely face Luke Humphries in the second round and Cool Hand is in good form.

This looks the most open of the four quarters. Only the rank out of form Dirk van Duijvenbode looks to have no chance. I’ll take Humphries because he has the best first round draw and is in good form.

2021 World Grand Prix: Third Quarter

Peter Wright is the top seed here and faces Rob Cross in the first round. Cross, despite being the top dog on the D18, has only won a single match in this format and you must fancy Wright to come through that to face Aspinall or Ratajski. I quite fancy Aspinall to get through. The Polish Eagle is struggling for form right now and has lost both his first-round matches in the event. Aspinall looks to be hitting form at just the right time and he has a winning H2H record over Wright, 7-4, and has won their last three, all Premier League matches.

Jose de Sousa has lost a bit of form and lost his opening match last year. Lucky for him he faces Glen Durrant, the rank outsider for the event, despite reaching the semi-final in his debut year. His game has gone, and this is not the format for someone who has completely lost his confidence. De Sousa will face the winner of Callan Rydz vs. Jonny Clayton, 2021 Premier League winner.

Interesting Match

That will be an interesting match. Rydz is a fast improving, high scoring player and he beat Peter Wright last week, 6-3 and with an average of 110. He is improving with more experience of playing on the bigger stages and while he is hard to fancy for the tournament, he could cause the upset here. Clayton has only won one match from the previous three Grand Prix and if there is a weakness in his game, it is that he can go AWOL on the doubles. Rydz beat Clayton 8-7 in the final of PC 2 earlier this year, to win the first of what is likely to be many, senior titles.

I would not be surprised to see Aspinall play Rydz for a place in the semi-final. They have met twice with one win each. Rydz won their only match this year. That was the semi-final of PC2, so he has positive mental associations with playing Clayton and Aspinall. Riot Rydz has reached the last 16 of last year’s Players Championship finals and the quarter final of this year’s World Matchplay, so do not be surprised to see another good run. His odds of 151.0 are far too big.

Fourth Quarter

The Dutch quarter. Three Dutchmen are in this group of eight. Van Gerwen will face Danny Noppert in the first round and re-run of their Gibraltar Darts Trophy match last weekend. MVG won that 6-5 after both players missed match darts. Both averaged 102 and this is no gimme for MVG. Noppert has been scoring well this year, 97.67 on average for the last three months (MVG 99.35).

They are both ranked top seven in the checkout % rankings and Noppert should give Van Gerwen a run for his money. However, MVG has only lost two first round matches in this tournament in ten starts. Noppert has won two from three but never gone further than the second round. MVG is 5-1 up in the H2H’s and he is taken to prevail once again.

Van Gerwen’s practice partner, Vincent van der Voort, faces Gabriel Clemens in the first round. The German beat Daryl Gurney in the first round on debut last year but his scoring has been poor of late, and he is hard to fancy making much progress. Van der Voort has only gone beyond the second round once in nine starts.

Good First Round Record

Gary Anderson is the other seed in the quarter. He has a good first round record, winning nine from eleven and last lost in the first round in 2012. He faces Ian White in the first round. We really haven’t seen much of White for a while, but he has won six of his last ten and is a two-time quarter finalist but also has also lost five first round matches. Anderson has a 10-5 H2H record with White but lost to him in this event in 2015. Anderson should win but it is hard to see either getting out of the quarter.

The final pair is in-form Brendan Dolan and Darius Labanauskas. Two steady Eddies, who are both underrated. Dolan is playing the best darts of his career and genuine contender to win the quarter. He has a recent win over MVG and Dolan has been one of the very best double hitters when it comes to checking out in 2021. If that transfers to the starting doubles as well, and why not, he will cause all sorts of problems for opponents. They have only met once, in 2019, and Labanauskas won 6-1. Lucky D is capable of giving anyone a game, but this is his debut and Dolan is taken to get through.

Dolan Poor Record v Anderson

If Dolan does, and faces Anderson, that might be it. He hasn’t beaten Anderson since 2015, losing their last five in a row, and lost them heavily. They have met twice in this event with one win each.

This could well be an Anderson vs. MVG quarter final. That is only going one way. Anderson has won just one of their last thirteen matches.

Van Gerwen is scoring well enough to come through this quarter and make his seventh semi-final. Dolan is a dark horse and perhaps the biggest threat to MVG, but his record vs. Anderson is a worry.

The crystal ball sees a Price vs. Humphries semi-final and it’s hard to See Humphries reversing a 1-6 H2H record and a recent euro tour semi-final defeat to Price.

The other? MVG vs. Rydz. They have met twice with one win each. It is likely that Rydz will fall flat on his face at some point. He tends to have a run of really high scores, and then hits a flat spot. However, he has picked up a pro tour win this season, has shown good form on big stages, has beaten a lot of the big names, including Price, Wright and MVG this year. He looks a very bright prospect and maybe he can be this year’s Dirk van Duijvenbode and make the final on debut.

2021 World Grand Prix: Price Fancied

Price must be fancied to defend his title. His recent form has been very impressive, he is very strong on D20 and full of confidence. He has reached the semi-final of six of the last ten ranked majors, three finals and won two.

Boylesports, the tournament sponsors, is the place to go this week. They are going top price on all the players and you will get a few quid on Price at 6.00, so well done them.

3 points Gerwyn Price to win the 2021 World Grand Prix @ 6.00 Boylesports price boost (5.00 generally available)

0.5 point e/w Callan Rydz to win the 2021 World Grand Prix @ 151.00

2021 World Grand Prix Tip: 1 point Callan Rydz to win the third quarter @ 21.00 with Betfred, Ladbrokes, Boylesports

2021 World Grand Prix Tip: 1 point Luke Humphries to win the second quarter @7.00 with Betfred, Boylesports

-JamesPunt