Longchamp Arc Day Tips by Dave Stevos
Longchamp Arc Day Tips and Preview
Stratum ran a bitterly disappointing race in the Cadran. Maybe the ground wasn’t soft enough for him. At least things went a little bit better for us in the UK. It was a slow start though, with Strong Johnson and Alpine Mistral bombing out. Stubble Field ran a blinder to nick place money for us in 5th. Tahlie ran an extremely poor race but our 33/1 e/w NAP Ainsdale landed a place for us in 4th. Atomise blew the start but she ran on very well and she is one to follow. Our 16/1 e/w NB Tomfre was well backed and he too nicked each way money in 5th. The French action takes centre stage on Sunday, check out our Longchamp Arc Day Tips and preview below.
1.15 – Prix Marcel Boussac (Group 1)
Conditions will be attritional at Longchamp today. Heavy rain is forecast before racing and it’ll be a day for the mudlovers. The first live race of the day is one of three Group 1s on ITV on Sunday, the 8f Prix Marcel Boussac. There is British and Irish interest in this race but master French trainer Andre Fabre supplies the favourite, Raclette. This daughter of Frankel is 2/2 so far and she was visually very impressive when winning a conditions race at Chantilly (8f sft) last time out. The horse he beat into 2nd, Lacuna, also has form with another filly in this race.
Times Square, a son of promising young sire Zarak, beat Lacuna on his debut. Lacuna already had a run under his belt but Times Square beat him quite cosily, despite showing definite signs of greenness. That win came on heavy ground and today will be his first run on that type of surface since. She was beaten on soft second time up at Clairefontaine but she was far from disgraced and it just looked like she needed further.
Last time out this filly picked up some black type in a Listed heat at Deauville (8f sft). She was denied a clear run just as the race was taking shape but she ran on very well and she just failed to get up for 2nd. Admittedly, plenty of her rivals have achieved more but have any of them got winning form on heavy ground? Zellie and Acer Alley are the only two fillies that tick that box while Oscula has G2 placed form on it. However, odds of 40/1 about Times Square look too big to me and she is the each way pick.
Longchamp Arc Day Tips: Times Square e/w @ 40/1
1.50 – Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1)
Despite the fact only nine run, this is still an intriguing contest. Again, like in the last race, heavy ground form is thin on the ground. The current market leader Ebro River likes a bit of cut but this is the first time he’ll have encountered anything like this. The son of Galileo Gold has at least won on his two runs on soft ground and if he handles today’s conditions he is going to be tough to beat. He has had a long season though with eight runs and this could be one race too far for him.
Accakaba is next best in the betting for Guyon and Ferland. She is 4/4 so far and she won a G2 last time out at Deauville (7f sft). Her previous three wins came on good to soft and you’d have to worry about her getting a mile on ground this soft given her pedigree. Of those at the top of the betting, only Ancient Rome has won on heavy. He won a G3 over a mile here last time (gd/sft) and he should have no issues dropping back to 7f today. If I was going to back one of the shorter priced ones, it would be him.
Frankie Factor
Ange Bleu is the mount of Frankie Dettori and he is trained by Ralph Beckett. He is a son of Dark Angel and both his starts on soft ground have resulted in victory. Frankie was on board last time out when he won a Goodwood G2 (7f sft) and the fact he is back in the saddle again is a big plus. Angel Bleu looks worth a try at this level but his odds look just about right. The rest of this field have no form on bad ground so it is hard to know what to expect. However, I am going to chance a small reverse forecast on Ancient Rome and Angel Bleu. They should both handle the ground, they both won last time and hopefully they fight out the finish.
Longchamp Arc Day Tips: Ancient Rome/Angel Bleu reverse forecast
3.05 – Prix de l’Arc De Triomphe (Group 1)
You can check out our big race in-depth preview here. To be honest, my opinion hasn’t changed since I wrote that preview earlier this week. The rain has come and both of my selections should handle it. I’m not too sure about the conditions for Adayar but Tarnawa has at least won on heavy before. I’ve heard a few pundits claiming that the rain will suit Snowfall, I’m not too sure what they’ve been smoking though. Yeah, she likes good to soft but she has been well beaten on her previous soft ground runs.
Love has been pulled on account of the ground and the two Japanese horses won’t have experienced anything like it before. Alenquer will be suited by it and I see there has been a few quid for him. However, Raabihah was beat just over 4L in last year’s Arc on bottomless and she shaped extremely well last time. I’m happy with her at 33s and Sealiway gets his ground also. I think Tarnawa is the most obvious one and Hurricane Lane could go well too. I’m sitting tight with Sealiway and Raabihah though. Make sure to avail of any extra place specials if you haven’t backed them yet.
