Friday European Championship Finals Tips

We made a solid start on Thursday but it could have been even better. Lewy Williams could easily have won his match but he didn’t take his chance. At least Suljovic landed bets for us at 2.10 (-2.5 legs) and 6.50 (correct score 6-2). James Punt landed another winner with Cullen -2.5 legs at 2.10 in the last match. Let’s hope for more of the same this evening, check out his Friday European Championship Finals preview and tips below.

Adam Gawlas vs. Joe Murnan

Young Czech player, Adam Gawlas secured his place here by reaching the quarter final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy. He beat Boris Krčmar, Jonny Clayton and Lewy Williams before losing the deciding leg to Jose de Sousa. He was lucky to get Clayton on an off day, but his other performances were good, well above his seasonal average of 89. His pro tour form going into that euro tour event was pretty poor, having lost six players championship matches in a row. Gawlas hasn’t played competitively since losing the pairs match at the World cup in early September.

Joe Murnan has won six of his last ten matches but there is not a lot in his recent form to get excited about. He is averaging 92 for the season and isn’t a big scorer. He beat Gawlas in a euro tour qualifier, 6-4, back in July.

Joe Murnan is the very marginal favourite at 1.95 to Gawlas 2.00. It is a match which makes little appeal in terms of having a bet.

Krzysztof Ratajski vs. Danny Noppert

The Polish eagle has lost six of his last ten matches but reached the quarter finals of both the Gibraltar Darts Open and World Grand Prix. Perhaps his little spell where he lost his form and five matches in a row is over. He wasn’t great in Gibraltar and reaching the quarter final flattered him. He has lost all three of his first-round matches in this event.

Danny Noppert went one better than Ratajski last week, reaching the semi-final of the Grand Prix. He played well, looked confident and he will be feeling good coming into this. He has been scoring very well in recent months and maybe now he is starting to put together more wins. His scoring certainly should allow him to win more than he has done.

Their HH2H record is 5-2 to Noppert and he has won all three of their stage matches.

Ratajski is the 1.75 favourite, Noppert 2.20. I cannot see any reason why. I would have Noppert favourite on the back of last weeks performance and their H2H record.

Friday European Championship Finals Tip: 1 point Danny Noppert to win @ 2.16 with Unibet

James Wade vs. Adam Smith-Neale

We know all about Wade, but what of Smith-Neale. He is part time player, more of a county player, who is currently playing on the Challenge tour. He won a Challenge Tour title in the summer and he came through a qualifying tournament to win a place at the recent Gibraltar Darts Trophy. He beat a local qualifier in the first round, beat Jonny Clayton in the second and lost 6-2 to Krzysztof Ratajski in the third.

If he can beat the amazing Jonny Clayton (2021 Premier League winner), surely he has a chance against James Wade? Well, even I would have some sort of chance. The fact is Jonny Clayton had one of those nights on the doubles. A 22% checkout rate gave Smith-Neale plenty of chances and he was able to take enough to win. We have to remember that Smith-Neale seasonal average is 85, 10 points shy of James Wades. There is a big gulf in class here. Smith-Neale has played in four PDC major matches. Three at the 2018 Grand Slam and the 2020 UK Open. He lost the lot. He did take Van Barneveld to a deciding leg, took 3 legs off Michael Smith, one off Ratajski and three off Callan Rydz.

Wade should just have too much for Smith-Neale but I doubt it will be a whitewash.

Friday European Championship Finals Tip: 0.5 point Wade to win 6-3 @ 5.00 with SpreadEx

Nathan Aspinall vs. Merv King

Two players who have lost six of their last ten matches. However, the difference is that King has played poorly and lost, Aspinall has been beaten by players playing very well. One of those six defeats in Kings last ten was to Nathan Aspinall. The Asp won their World Matchplay match 10-6 and their H2H record is 2-1 to King. He beat Aspinall 10-3 at this years Masters and 10-5 in the 2019 World Matchplay. It is a surprise that they have never played a first to six leg format before.

King has only averaged 91.6 over his last ten while Aspinall is averaging 98.1 over his last ten. The latter is playing well but losing too many, the former just losing because he isn’t scoring well. King has beat some fringe players, Aspinall has lost four matches to top 16 players.

It is Merv King who will have to improve on his recent form if he isn’t to lose his fourth European Championship first round match in a row.

Friday European Championship Finals Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win -1.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair, Paddy Power

Michael Smith vs. Ryan Searle

Searle is making his debut but is in better form than Michael Smith, winning seven of his last ten to Smiths five. Smith hasn’t lost a first round match in this event since 2016. Smith has a 6-2 H2H record over Searle including two wins in 2021. They have never had a match go to a deciding leg with a 6-4 result being their closest match.

Their seasonal stats are very similar, both are heavy scorers, both play at a brisk pace but more often than not, Smith ends up the winner. Smith is the 1.83 favourite, Searle 2.00. With Smith losing his last three matches it takes a bit of faith to back him, but two of those defeats were against Gerwyn Price who averaged 108 and 100 (in a double in format), so there was no great shame in that. Who ever you fancy, it seems wise to back them on the handicaps, given their lack of close matches.

Friday European Championship Finals Tip: 1 point Michael Smith to win -1.5 legs @ 2.37 with SpreadEx

Michael van Gerwen vs. Boris Krčmar

MVG has won both their previous matches 6-4. However, they were back in 2010 and 2011. The former number 1, Van Gerwen is playing well, has won eight of his last ten matches, is averaging 98.8 in 2021 with a win rate of 71%. Krčmar is only averaging 91.4 with a win rate of 45% and he has lost six of his last ten matches. He is not great player, but he has his moments when it all clicks. He averaged 97 or more in ten of his last 50 matches, so 1 in 5 of his matches he is very dangerous.

If Krčmar has one of his good days, he could win in a short format and with Van Gerwen’s confidence so fragile. However, if he plays to his seasonal average, MVG should win comfortably. MVG is the 1.25 favourite, Krčmar a 4.50 shot. There isn’t any value there and this match is skipped as a betting opportunity.

Gerwyn Price vs. Ritchie Edhouse

Another mismatch with Price being the 1.20 favourite and Edhouse 5.30. Price is in great form, winning nine of his last ten matches. Edhouse has won six of his last ten, but he is a light scorer, 91.3 over the last 12 months, compared to 98.6 for Price. These mismatches are of little interest unless there is a reason to think there might be an upset and it is hard to see one here.

Damon Heta vs. Gabriel Clemens

A more competitive affair to end the night. Neither player is in good form. Heta has lost six of his last ten, Clemens five. Their H2H record is 1-1 with both matches played this March and both ending 6-4. Heta is the heavier scorer but not by a big margin and over their last ten matches, excluding the double in format, Heta averaged 93.3, Clemens 91.3.

Heta is making his debut while Clemens lost his first-round match last year. It is hard to get enthusiastic about a match with two players who are not playing great. It is the proverbial coin flip.

Heta is the 1.67 favourite with Clemens the 2.30 outsider. Does either deserve to be favourite? There may be some value in Clemens odds, but it is marginal. I will take a chance that the match will be close, rather than pick the winner.

Friday European Championship Finals Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power

-JamesPunt