2021 Ascot Champions Day Tips by Dave Stevos
2021 Ascot Champions Day Preview and Tips
So, the end of the flat season is nearly upon us. What a finish it is though with no less than four Group 1s, a Group 2 and a top quality handicap. Hopefully things go better for us than they did last Saturday at Newmarket and York. It was a disaster from start to finish and Takarengo’s run in the Cesarewitch was a fitting finale. We head back into the breach with renewed optimism on Saturday at Ascot. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2021 Ascot Champions Day tips and preview below.
1.25 – British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
This year the ground at Ascot for Champions Day will be on the soft side of good. The forecast is mostly dry but misty mornings and heavy dews mean that the ground will retain plenty of moisture. Three of the first five home in the Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp (20f v sft) will renew rivalries here. Last year’s hero Trueshan won in France decisively from the 2019 winner Stradivarius by 4.5L. Princess Zoe was back in 5th, a further 3.25L behind. All three horses had hard races and the two week turnaround has to be a worry for them.
Berkshire Could Go Close
At a decent each way price, perhaps Berkshire Rocco can hit the frame. We were on him in the Leger (14f gd) last season when he ran a massive race behind Galileo Chrome. The son of Sir Percy doesn’t need good ground though, as he showed when beating Albaflora here on his final 3yo start (14f sft). Unlike most of his rivals, this fella will be fairly fresh for this race. He has had just one start since finishing 2nd in a Doha G1 in February. That came at Salisbury a month ago where he was beat 2L into 2nd by Quickthorn (14f gd).
Andrew Balding’s charge is rated 110 so he will need to improve. However, he has some solid form in the book, including with talented horses like Santiago and Pyledriver. Berkshire Rocco has form figures of 21 on soft ground at Ascot so he clearly likes the track. A minor injury is the reason he missed the early part of the season but his comeback run should have left him spot on. If the first time cheekpieces elicit another few pounds of improvement, he shouldn’t be far away at 18/1.
2021 Ascot Champions Day Tip: Berkshire Rocco e/w @ 18/1 (4 Places)
2.00 – British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
In 2019 we were on Donjuan Triumphant when he won this race at 33/1. In 2020, we backed Brando and he was beat a nose at 80/1. Donjuan is now enjoying life at stud but Brando is still going strong and he will be having his sixth run in the Champions Sprint Stakes on Saturday. Kevin Ryan’s 9yo son of Pivotal has never run a bad race in this contest. His form figures in it read 36442 and the year he finished 6th, he suffered interference.
Good to soft ground will suit this horse and he has shown twice this season that all his ability still remains. We backed him in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville (6.5f sft) in August and he was an unlucky loser in 4th. The gaps came too late for Tom Eaves but Brando flew home. He was just 2L behind the winner Marianafoot and a head behind Starman.
Prior to that run he ran a massive race in the July Cup when denied a clear run. He may have finished 7th but he was only 2.75L behind Starman and he was less than a length behind the likes of Oxted, Art Power, Creative Force and Glen Shiel. With extra places available from a few firms, Brando is more than capable of hitting the frame.
2021 Ascot Champions Day Tip: Brando e/w @ 25/1 NAP (4 Places)
2.35 – British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes (Group 1)
This is the smallest field of the day with just 8 declared. Snowfall is a warm order after her decent effort in the Arc last time out. She ran a lot better than I thought she would on that bad ground and she’ll be far better suited by the conditions at Ascot. She is rated 10lbs higher than anything else in this. With her 3yo allowance, she is the one they have to beat. However, she did have a hard race at Longchamp and it was only 13 days ago so perhaps she could be worth taking on.
Lady Hayes is an interesting contender at big odds. This filly is also a 3yo and she has had a far lighter campaign than most of her rivals. By Kodiac, she enjoys cut in the ground and she ran a massive race on her last start on soft. She finished just 1.25L behind Alpinista in the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock (12f sft). That filly went on to beat Arc winner Torquator Tasso next time out.
Lady Hayes had Tribal Craft (and Mystery Angel) behind her that day and on similar ground, I believe she can uphold that form. The ground and drop back to 10f was not in her favour last time out at Salisbury so I am putting a line through that run. If she was coming into the race on the back of her previous outing, there is no way she would be 40/1. At those odds, she must surely be worth a little nibble e/w.
2021 Ascot Champions Day Tip: Lady Hayes e/w @ 40/1
3.10 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
This 8f Group 1 has the potential to be an absolute classic. It is a stacked field and Palace Pier is 13/8 to extend his winning sequence to five. The son of Kingman was last sighted scoring by a neck from Poetic Flare at Deauville two months ago. He is rated 125 and he is the best miler around at the moment. His last defeat came in this race last season when he had a similar preparation. However, he is a year older and stronger now and if he turns up in peak form, he’ll be tough to beat.
Baaeed is next best in the betting at around 5/2. The 3yo son of Sea The Stars has yet to taste defeat after five starts. His Listed and G3 wins came by wide margins and he then added a G1 at Longchamp last month. He had 1.25L to spare in that contest but the placed horses have disappointed subsequently. Theoretically, with a rating of 121 and a 3lb weight for age allowance he has nothing to find with Palace Pier but this is a proper Group 1 and it is by far the toughest task he has faced to date.
Ground Concerns
The Revenant won this race last season on much softer ground. He ran a cracker on his last outing at Longchamp, going down by a neck in a G2 (8f v sft). However, he is not as effective on ground with good in the description and he could be up against it in these conditions. Master Of The Seas has shown his very best form on good to firm so in his case, the ground might just be a shade on the easy side.
Alcohol Free was disappointing last time at Goodwood but the 10f trip was beyond her. The drop back to 8f is a huge plus for her and while she will handle good to soft, her two wins at the highest level have come on soft and heavy. Maybe that is the sort of ground she needs to show her best. Benbatl is another one who won’t like the ground but Mother Earth won’t mind it. She is an admirably consistent sort who should run her usual solid race. This will be her third run in the space of a month though and it is a big ask.
Lady Looks Overpriced
The one that looks a huge price to me is Lady Bowthorpe. William Jarvis’ star mare landed her first G1 victory at Goodwood back in July (10f gd/sft). She wasn’t so good last time at Deauville over the same trip but that was her third run in the space of 6 weeks and maybe she just ran flat. Jarvis has given her a 55 day break and that bodes well for her chances given her record when fresh.
Her last start at this trip came in the Falmouth when she was a desperately unlucky 4th. With a clear run she would have won that and on that form she has 0.5L to find with Mother Earth and a neck to find with Alcohol Free. Back in May she gave Palace Pier a proper race at Newbury (8f gd/sft) and I don’t think she should be written off on the back of one poor effort in France. 22/1 looks far too big and at those odds, an each way play is advised.
2021 Ascot Champions Day Tip: Lady Bowthorpe e/w @ 22/1 nb
3.50 – Champion Stakes (Group 1)
A field of 10 will line up in the stalls for this year’s Champion Stakes. A trip of 10f awaits them and Mishriff is the favourite for The Gosdens and David Egan. This globetrotting superstar dotted up last time out at York (10f gd) but this ground has to rate as a huge worry. He was well beat on soft in this race last season and his sole start this year on good to soft also resulted in defeat at Sandown. Yes, he has won on testing ground in the past but he is probably 7/8lbs more effective on good or quicker. He is also 0/2 at Ascot so I wouldn’t be steaming in at 13/8.
Adayar, the Epsom Derby hero, is as short as 2/1. He lowered Mishriff’s colours over 12f at this track in July on good to firm. His career best performance came on good to soft so ground conditions are ideal for him but there has to be worries about the drop back in trip. He also had a hard race in the Arc just 13 days ago on heavy ground. Will that have left a mark? Maybe he’ll be fine and he gets 4lbs from Mishriff, but is he one for lumping on at 2/1? I don’t think so.
Don’t Dismiss Addeybb
William Haggas holds a strong hand with Dubai Honour and Addeybb. James Doyle is on Dubai Honour and he is coming here on the back of successive G2 wins. He deserves to take his chance but the 3yo has to prove he can cut it in this exalted company. Tom Marquand keeps the faith in Addeybb and why wouldn’t he. The son of Pivotal landed an Aussie G1 (10f gd) two starts ago and last time he chased home St Mark’s Basilica in the Coral Eclipse (10f gd/sft).
He hasn’t been seen since then (105 days) but that isn’t really a worry. He has gone well fresh before and he has form figures of 1221 over this course and distance, including his win in this race last year and his close 2nd to Magical in 2019. A bit of cut in the ground is perfect for this fella and I am surprised to see him as big as 8/1 with some firms. Sealiway could go well but he had a tough race in The Arc and Mac Swiney would be interesting on soft/heavy ground. Everything looks perfect for Addeybb though and he is the each way selection.
2021 Ascot Champions Day Tip: Addeybb e/w @ 8/1
4.30 – Balmoral Handicap (Class 2)
The show closes on Champions Day at Ascot with this valuable 8f Handicap. David O’Meara has won this twice in the last four years. Escobar scored two years ago under Adam Kirby and Lord Glitters won it in 2017 with Danny Tudhope in the plate. He has entered four here and three are guaranteed a run. Young Fire is first reserve and if he gets in, he could go well at a big price. However, stable jockey Danny Tudhope is on Rhoscolyn and I think he has made a good choice.
The 3yo son of Territories is rated 106 but he gets a 3lb age allowance so he carries just 9st 3lbs. This horse has been campaigned at Listed and G3 level in the last couple of months. His last handicap start came at the end of July in the Golden Mile at Goodwood. He raced off a mark of 104 that day and he would have won with a clear run. Oisin Murphy met multiple traffic problems and he finished just 1.75L behind the winner Maydanny.
The handicapper hiked him up to 106 for that run and that is the mark he runs off today. Last time out at Redcar he ran very well in a Listed contest (7f gd). He was only a length behind the winner despite finishing 5th. Good to soft ground is perfect for him and he is nicely drawn in stall 5. The return to handicap company is a big positive and if he repeats his Goodwood run, he is capable of hitting the frame off just 2lbs higher. At odds of 20/1, Rhoscolyn is the e/w selection.
