Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips by Dave Stevos
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Saturday Preview
The Breeders’ cup starts tonight and you can see our tips for the ITV live races here. In the UK the action tomorrow comes from Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree. There are ten live races (and another eight later on in the USA) and I have bets for eight of them. Hopefully we can nick a place or two and maybe even a winner if we are lucky. Check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday racing preview and tips below.
1.08 Aintree – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The ground is currently good to soft, soft in places at Aintree but there is rain forecast. 5mm is due to fall and if that comes it could turn soft. One horse that won’t mind whether it rains or not is The Worlds End. His trainer Olly Murphy is in great form and this horse has the back class to be a huge danger now returned to hurdles off a mark of 144. In 2019 he landed what was admittedly a weak Grade 1 at Ascot. He was then pulled up the next twice before leaving Tom George and heading to his current handler.
Last season he ran just three times after joining Murphy in November and two of those were in Hunter Chases. He ran okay when a close 3rd in the first one at Warwick (24f sft) but he was beat nearly 40L on his last run at Haydock. The question now is does this 10yo retain any ability? He must have had some injury issues but he has had a lovely break and he won first time up in 2018 and 2019. Olly Murphy has his horses flying and this could be the time to catch The Worlds End. He is well handicapped, he won a Grade 1 over C&D in 2017 and at odds of 14/1, hopefully he can roll back the years and run a big race.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: The Worlds End e/w @ 14/1 (4 Places)
1.25 Doncaster – Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2)
It’s soft at Doncaster but there is very little rain forecast so it shouldn’t be any slower than that. The one I like at 25/1 is Danzan for Tim Easterby and Duran Fentiman. This horse has found life very tough after his superb form as a 2yo. He won a novice by 10L and he was beat 1.25L here over 6.5f in a big sales race. He then won two on the all weather in Jan/Feb 2018 to earn a rating of 105. Since then, he has struggled in handicaps. In fairness to him, he did go close enough off 93 in May 2019 and in 2020 he finished 2nd three times in a row off 85, 87 and 88.
This season he has been running really well and on his last start over 7f on soft he was a pretty unlucky 5th at Musselburgh. He had every chance a furlong out but he got squeezed out and badly hampered. That cost him any chance and while he may not have won, he definitely would have finished in the money. He wasn’t as good here last time in blinkers but the step back up to 7f could spark him back to form. His last three runs at the distance have resulted in form figures of 335 and the cheekpieces he wore at Musselburgh are back on. Duran Fentiman gets a good tune out of this fella and at 22s, he is worth a small interest e/w.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: Danzan e/w @22/1 (6 places Betfred)
1.50 Wincanton – Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
The ground is on the quick side at Wincanton for this 20f Novices’ Chase. Just the five go to post and I don’t really fancy anything strongly enough to have a bet. Milton Harris is in great form right now and if it was softer, I’d probably side with Jacamar. However, the ground is probably a shade lively for him.
It looks between the top three in the betting. Mick Pastor has never won at this trip but he hosed up over 17f last time. Captain Tom Cat and Faivoir have won over 20f but they both disappointed since. It should be an interesting watch but I am keeping the powder dry. No bet.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: No Bet
2.05 Doncaster – Wentworth Stakes (Listed)
We backed Jouska last time out at Newmarket and she was far from disgraced in 5th. Al Suhail won that G2 and Jouska managed to beat some seriously talented horses. To be honest, I think she should have finished closer and it was frustrating that she missed out on a place by 1.5L. It was a super effort though and she should find life a lot easier now dropped into Listed company.
She was up against multiple horses rated 109+ at Newmarket. Today, King’s Lynn is her highest rated opponent at 108. Thanks to her weight for sex allowance she carries just 8st 12lbs and the top rated one carries 9st 6lbs. I don’t think she has to improve much at all on her last run to go very close here. She’ll relish the easy ground and she has tended to hit top form at this time of the year in the past. In October 2020 she landed a 6f Listed heat at Newmarket, hopefully she repeats the trick today. At odds of 12/1, Jouska is the e/w NAP of the day.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: Jouska e/w @ 12/1 NAP (4 Places)
2.15 Aintree – Grand Sefton Chase (Class 2)
The one I’ve had my eye on for this race for a while is Francky Du Berlais. Trained by Peter Bowen, this is a horse I think could be perfectly suited to this test. Connections landed a couple of lovely pots with him during the summer. He headed off on his holidays after a commanding 7.5L Summer Plate (G3) win at Market Rasen off 137. The way he jumped and travelled through that race was exceedingly impressive and it was a clear career best.
Peter Bowen’s charge returned from three months off with an underwhelming effort back at Market Rasen. However, he has tended to need his first runs back from a break and you would imagine that run was simply a prep for a shot at this big pot. The handicapper dropped him 2lbs to 145 for his last effort. He has to carry 11st 11lbs here so I think the fact that Bowen hasn’t used a claimer suggests he thinks this horse could still have a bit in hand.
Francky’s summer wins came on good ground but the son of Saint Des Saints also acts on soft. It would be a worry if it was heavy but that’s not likely. The form of his Summer Plate win was franked by the runner up who hacked up by 12L next time out. I think this 8yo could yet have more improvement in him and he is usually an excellent jumper. If he takes to these fences, he could go very close at odds of 16/1.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: Francky Du Berlais e/w @ 16/1 NB
2.25 Wincanton – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Ten are scheduled to go to post for this 21.5f handicap hurdle but with the ground the way it is, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few non-runners. The interesting one for me is Perfect Myth. Neil King trains this 7yo daughter of Midnight Legend. She will be ridden by Kai Lenihan who takes off 10lbs. That means she is effectively in off 128, 8lbs lower than when beat 2L in this race last season.
She is a top of the ground mare and not only is this her first handicap run since, it is also the first time she has had her favoured ground. She has been highly tried on two of her last three starts. Connections nicked black type with a poor 3rd in a Listed Mares Novice on bad ground in December but she was pulled up on her final start in the Dawn Run at Cheltenham.
Connections clearly think a lot of this mare judging by how she has been campaigned. She’ll find life a lot easier back in handicap company and more importantly, back on good ground. She has placed on 2 of her 3 starts at Wincanton and her last four runs on good have produced form figures of 1212. In 2020 she returned from a break with a fine 2nd at Uttoxeter so her lack of a recent run isn’t a worry. Plenty of her rivals would prefer softer ground so at odds of 16/1, Perfect Myth is worth chancing each way.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: Perfect Myth e/w @ 16/1
2.40 Doncaster – November Handicap (Class 2)
At an absolutely huge price, Skycutter is an interesting contender here off 88. Formerly trained by Jo Hughes, this son of Scissor Kick has some eye catching soft ground French form in the book. He went close on his first two starts for Phil Kirby off 88 at Ripon (10f gd/sft) and Newbury (12f gd). His last two runs were poor but he didn’t get to the front in either of them and he may have needed his last outing after a break.
His form in France includes a Listed 4th at Deauville over a mile (v sft). He was 3L behind subsequent G3 winner Malakoun and the 5th has since won a G3 in the US. In October 2020 he finished a length behind Baby Rider at Fontainebleau off level weights (8f sft). He has since won and been placed in G2 company. The last time he had testing ground, he scored by 2L at Compiegne on his final 2yo start.
He started off this season with a fine run behind Merveillo at Le Lion-D’Angers. He went on to win a Listed heat two starts later. All that form suggests that back on soft ground, Skycutter could be very well handicapped off 88. His trainer has been amongst the winners in recent weeks and John Egan is a good jockey booking. This horse is better than he showed the last twice and back on his favoured ground, he could bounce back with a big run at odds of 66/1.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: Skycutter e/w @ 66/1 (6 places)
3.00 Wincanton – Handicap Chase (Listed)
With trip and ground to suit, Innisfree Lad could go well for David Dennis and Rex Dingle. This 9yo son of Yeats has won on soft but four of his six wins have come on ground with good in the description. His career best effort came at Haydock (25.5f gd) back in April when he won a nice race off 125.
You could forgive him his subsequent poor run at Ayr as it came just 15 days later. He had a nice spin over hurdles a couple of weeks ago to blow away the cobwebs after a break and he returns to chasing off 130. He has never won off a rating that high but he could still be improving over fences. Rex Dinge is 1/2 on this horse so he looks a decent booking. This looks a wide open race and at odds of 20/1, Innisfree Lad is worth backing each way.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: Innisfree Lad e/w @ 20/1
3.20 Aintree – Betway Hurdle (Class 2)
Just the six go to post for this class 2 conditions race over 20f. Some talented sorts return to action here. Last year’s winner Summerville Boy will hope to repeat the truck for Scudamore and Tom George. He gets 6lbs from Brewin’upastorm and that horse had a wind op since his last run. He is probably best watched today and the same sentiment applies to Wilde About Oscar. Martello Sky has hacked up on her last two starts and she has a fitness edge. If I had to back one it would be her but with just two places on offer, I’m sitting this one out. No bet.
Doncaster, Wincanton and Aintree Tips: No Bet
3.35 Wincanton – Elite Hurdle (Grade 2)
At odds of 9/1, I believe Sole Pretender can announce himself on the big stage today. We backed him in the Galway Hurdle when nothing went right for him. This horse needs to lead and the start at Galway was messy and he didn’t get the required early position. He still wasn’t disgraced in 8th, beat 7L, but he is capable of much better than that. On his previous run at Tipperary (16f gd/yld) he beat Darasso by 2L in a Grade 3.
Norman Lee has probably dreamt about winning the Galway Hurdle with this horse but he could be better than a handicapper. That Darasso form suggests he belongs at a higher level and today will tell all. Sole Pretender needs good ground to show his best so the conditions look ideal for him at Wincanton.
Sceau Royal is an obvious danger after his win at Kempton last time. He’ll be fit, he is a C&D winner and he’ll love the ground. Goshen is a mercurial character who is hard to predict. At his best he would be a big threat but he needs it softer. Belfast Banter won a Grade 1 at Aintree last season and he is another talented type. However, I am a big believer in Sole Pretender and he is the each way selection.
