2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Preview
The second and final evening of the Breeders’ Cup and what a night it promises to be. Eight Grade 1s, over £13 million in prize money and Matt Chapman on location for ITV4. Well, I suppose it can’t all be good! We have also got a preview for Saturday’s UK action here. You can check out Dave Stevos’ 2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday tips below.
7.40 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
We backed Extravagant Kid in this race last year and he ran a huge race. He just missed out on a place in 4th and he was only 1.25L behind the winner Glass Slippers. This horse must have done something do displease the draw gods in a former life. He was drawn 14 of 14 last season at Keeneland and he is drawn 12/12 this time. Brendan Walsh’s son of Kiss The Kid was last sighted running 2nd behind Golden Pal in a G2 at Keeneland (5.5f gd).
The winner had a dream run through the race but Extravagant Kid didn’t. In the home straight at a crucial time he had to switch. Once that happened, it was game over. He finished 2.25L behind the winner but on another day, he would have got a lot closer to today’s favourite. This fella may be an 8yo now but he still has bundles of ability. It is only three runs back that he ran a massive race at Ascot when beat 2L in 3rd by crack UK sprinter Oxted.
Ryan Moore will take the ride and he is 1/1 aboard this horse. He gave him a peach to win the G1 Al Quoz Sprint in Meydan so he knows exactly what is required to get this fella’s head in front. He’ll have to overcome a bad draw but Moore is one of the best jockeys around so hopefully, he can navigate a smooth passage. Golden Pal, Lieutenant Dan and Arrest Me Red should ensure this is run at a scorching pace. I am hoping Extravagant Kid can swoop fast and late for place money at 25/1.
2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Extravagant Kid e/w @ 25/1 (4 Places W Hill)
8.19 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1)
Just the eight contenders for this 8f G1 and Life Is Good is dominant at the head of the market. Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz team up with this son of Into Mischief and he is 3/4 in his short career thus far. His sole defeat can be excused as it was over 7f. It was also his first run for Pletcher after moving from Bob Baffert and he was returning from a 175 day break. The horse that beat him hosed up in a G2 next time by nearly 7L and Life Is Good got back to winning ways too next time out at Belmont. He is the one to beat, especially getting weight from the older horses, but his odds reflect that.
At a price, perhaps Snapper Sinclair can run on late for place money. Steve Asmussen’s 6yo son of City Zip has had his two prep runs on turf but he handles the dirt well. His last run on this surface saw him finishing a creditable 4th in the Godolphin Mile at Meydan. His last two runs have been great efforts. On his next start, he made all to win on the turf at Keeneland (8.5f fm) and he then was less than a length behind Lieutenant Dan over an inadequate trip (6.5f) in a G2 at Santa Anita.
That winner is an 11/1 shot for the Sprint earlier on this card so that was a super run. Joel Rosario’s mount should be well suited by the step back up in trip tonight and he was denied a clear run when a staying on 4th in this race at Santa Anita back in 2019. Is he good enough to beat the fav? Probably not, but with three places on offer he is worth chancing each way.
2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Snapper Sinclair e/w @ 25/1
8.59 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1)
This is a red hot renewal with a strong European challenge. The 11f trip is not one that many of the UK, Irish and French horses have run over. We backed Audarya last year when she won this race at Keeneland but that day, the trip was 9.5f. She definitely stays 10f but the extra furlong today is an unknown. The furthest she has tackled was 10.5f back in 2019 and she was well beaten, admittedly on soft ground. However, she’ll relish the fast conditions at Del Mar and her form with Love at Ascot (10f gd/fm) would give her every chance, once she stays the trip.
War Like Goddess is the fav for William Mott and Julien Leparoux. This daughter of English Channel is on a five timer and she is 2/2 at 11f. She landed a Saratoga G1 in fine style last time out and it will be fascinating to see how her form matches up with the foreign raiders. Her win last time was very impressive visually but there has to be doubts about the quality of her opposition. This will be a different kettle of fish and odds of 7/2 make zero appeal.
Big Japanese Challenge
Loves Only You bids to become the first ever Breeders’ Cup winner from Japan. She is by one of my favourite sires, Deep Impact, and she has winning and placed form at 11f on fast ground. Her standout effort came at Meydan (12f gd) back in March. She finished only 0.5L behind the mighty Mishriff and she followed that up by winning the G1 QEII Cup at Sha Tin (10f gd). Yoshito Yahagi’s mare could be extremely well suited by track conditions and the trip. A repeat of that Mishriff run might be enough for her to take the prize back to the Land of the Rising Sun.
Acanella A Real Dark Horse
Ger Lyons has his first ever Breeders’ Cup runner in this with Acanella. She’ll have the assistance of one of the best jockeys around in Colin Keane and I think the 3yo could surprise with a big run here. Things didn’t really go to plan for this daughter of Dansili after her debut win at Leopardstown (8f gd). However, she got back on track in style on her penultimate outing at the Curragh when she lowered the colours of Champers Elysees in a 9f G3. The trip really seemed to suit her but she dropped in distance last time in the G1 Matron Stakes.
Her run there is why she is 20/1 today. She could only manage 7th, beat 4L, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Not once, but twice she was denied a clear run and when she got into the clear she ran on really well. On that evidence this step up to 11f could bring out the best in her and her pedigree suggests it will too. She is closely related to Flintshire whose Breeders’ Cup form figures over 12f read 212. Hopefully Keane steers Acanella into the frame at odds of 20/1.
2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Acanella e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
9.38 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1)
This 6f Dirt Grade 1 will be contested by nine sprinters. Jackie’s Warrior is a warm order at 5/4 for Asmussen and Rosario. This 3yo colt has won 4 of his last 5, all at G1 and G2 level. He scorched home last time out in a G2 at Parx, beating Pickin Time by nearly 7L. However, he is up against another winning machine in Dr Schivel. Mark Glatt’s son of Violence has won five on the spin and two of those were Grade 1s at this track. He clearly likes Del Mar and it will be fascinating to see if he can overcome a wide draw in stall 9 (Jackie’s Warrior is in stall 2).
Special Reserve is another one that can’t be discounted. He has finished in the first 2 on his last 6 runs (4 wins) and the son of Midshipman could play a part in the finish from stall 8. Given the amount of early pace in this race, it could set up for a closer and C Z Rocket loves to be produced late off a fast gallop. He ran a cracker over this C&D back in August in a G1 behind Dr Schivel.
He finished his race off really well from the back and only 0.5L separated him from the Glatt horse. Last time out he could only finish 3.5L behind Dr Schivel at Santa Anita but the winner was drawn well and was allowed to dictate. I am hoping that the front runners take each other on here and cut each other’s throats. If they do, few will be finishing faster than C Z Rocket and at 14/1, he is the e/w pick.
2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: C Z Rocket e/w @ 14/1 NAP
10.20 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1)
Another superb contest, this time back on the turf over a mile. This is another race with plenty of European interest. Aidan O’Brien won it last season with Order Of Australia and he relies on Mother Earth this year. She has been running in all the right races and she landed a G1 at Deauville in August (8f sft). The daughter of Zoffany handles quicker ground too and her run behind Snow Lantern on good to firm at Newmarket in July was a fine effort. She was given too much to do last time behind Baaeed at Ascot but she finished her race off very nicely. She was runner up at the Breeders’ Cup as a 2yo and it would be no surprise to see her go one better in 2021.
The bookies make Space Blues the favourite at around 9/4. The 5yo hasn’t run over this far since he was beat in a Nottingham novice in 2019 (8.5f). Since then he has stayed at 6f-7f and it has worked out for him. In 2020 he won all four starts after returning from Meydan. This season, the son of Dubawi is 2/3, including the 7f Prix de la Foret on heavy at Longchamp. The conditions were very testing that day and you’d wonder has it left a mark on him. Quick ground is fine but the trip is a slight worry and he could be worth taking on.
Mo Heads Home Challenge
Mo Forza comes into the race in flying form. He has won four in a row, including two over today’s C&D. However, they were all in Grade 2s and he was well beat his last try in G1 company. He did win a G1 over 9f at Del Mar as a 3yo but I’m not sure if he is good enough to beat the top European horses. The one I like at a nice e/w price is Master Of The Seas. James Doyle takes the ride on the son of Dubawi and he comes into the race on the back of a below par run at Ascot behind Baaeed.
However, the ground was soft that day and this horse is best on good or faster. Back in May this colt was beat a short head by Poetic Flare in the 2000 Guineas. He suffered a setback after that race so it was encouraging to see him run so well behind Benbatl on his return in September. His draw in stall 1 is a positive but he is a hold up horse so hopefully he doesn’t get too crowded on the inner. In receipt of weight from the older horses and returned to rattling quick ground, Master Of The Seas is worth chancing each way at 14/1.
2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Master Of The Seas e/w @ 14/1
11.00 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1)
Four time Grade 1 dirt winner Letruska heads the market in this 9f heat for the fillies and mares. Fausto Gutierrez trains this 5yo daughter of Super Saver and like a fine wine, she has improved with age. Four of her last five starts have resulted in victory, the last three coming over today’s trip. Irad Ortiz knows her well and he retains the ride. If she gets loose on the front she is going to be hard to peg back.
Malathat is also a multiple G1 winner and she gets 3lbs from the fav. By Curlin, she has landed three G1s from her last four starts, all against her own age group. This filly is versatile tactically. She has won from the front but she can also be held up so John Velazquez will have options from stall 3. Her trainer Todd Pletcher won this in 2015 and this filly looks sure to run a big race for him here.
Dunbar Overpriced
The one to be interested in each way here is Dunbar Road. She hasn’t won since July 2020 but she has run very well in defeat the last twice. Both those runs came behind today’s fav Letruska at Saratoga and Keeneland. She was a length behind her at Saratoga and then last time she was 1.75L behind. Jose Ortiz takes the ride and the last time he was on board she finished a 2.75L 3rd in this race in 2020.
Her sole visit to Del Mar resulted in a 3L G2 win so she likes this track. Chad Brown and connections most likely earmarked this race for her after last year’s performance. That last run at Keeneland should have put her spot on for her repeat bid. In 2020 she went off at 33/1 but unfortunately she isn’t as big as that this time. However, she still makes plenty of e/w appeal at odds of 14/1. If she gets within 2L of Letruska again it may be enough to nick a place.
2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Dunbar Road e/w @14/1 (4 places W Hill)
11.40 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1)
This is the big one for the European horses. Tarnawa is the market leader for Weld and Keane and she ran a massive race in the Arc 34 days ago. The fact it was bottomless ground has to be a worry though. She had a very hard race at Lngchamp. She had a similar prep last season though and she didn’t disappoint when beating Magical at Keeneland. Colin Keane rode her to victory last season and she has every chance of following in the hoofsteps of High Chaparral and Conduit by winning this race twice.
Teona is next best in the betting for Varian and David Egan. She has had a nice little break since springing a major surprise when beating Snowfall at Longchamp. That was her first G1 victory and a career best by some distance. Quick ground could be the key for this daughter of Sea The Stars. She is 2/2 on good ground or better and she’ll get her optimal conditions today. Tarnawa has to give her 4lbs and she has a small chance at 7/1.
Godolphin Double Handed
Charlie Appleby and Godolphin are doubly represented. William Buick has opted to ride the rapidly improving Yibir. He won a big pot on firm ground at Belmont Park last time out, building on his G2 win at York (12f gd). Like Teona, he is at his best on quick ground. His form figures on good or quicker read 113111 and he is a big player.
So is his stablemate Walton Street. James Doyle takes the ride and he comes here after an emphatic G1 win at Woodbine. He beat Desert Encounter by almost 6L off level weights. Teona beat the same horse 3.75L at Windsor in receipt of just under a stone so if you take that form literally, Walton Street should have the Varian filly’s measure. 9/1 looks a more than fair price.
O’Brien Trio Big Prices
Aidan O’Brien’s horses can never be written off in this race. He has won it six times in the past, the last one coming in 2016 with Highland Reel. This year he runs three, Broome, Bolshoi Ballet and Japan. Bolshoi Ballet was initially a reserve but two horses have pulled out so he gets a run. Frankie is on Broome and Moore was down to ride Japan so it’ll be interesting to see if he stays on him or jumps ship.
Bolshoi Ballet was well behind Yibir last time and it is hard to make a case for him turning that form around. Broome is talented but his best form has come on easier ground than he gets today. Japan produced his best run for some time at Saratoga (12f fm) behind Gufo two runs back. I’ve always thought this horse would win a big one on soft but his best recent efforts have come on better ground. He didn’t get the clearest of runs last time and of the O’Brien three, he has the best chance.
If Tarnawa is at her best, she is the one to beat. However, given how hard a race she had at Longchamp, I am taking her on with Yibir. This quick ground is exactly what he wants and he gets the 3yo allowance. He seems to be getting better with every run and he had Bolshoi Ballet 5L behind when hosing up last time out. At odds of 8/1, Yibir is the e/w selection.
2021 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tip: Yibir e/w @ 8/1 (4 places Coral)
12.40 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1)
The finale on Saturday night is the 10f Breeders’ Cup Classic on the dirt. Bob Baffert has won this race four times since 2014, including last year. He relies on Medina Spirit, the horse who was disqualified after winning the Kentucky Derby due to a failed doping test. He was then 3rd in the Preakness before landing successive easy wins here over 8f and over 9f at Santa Anita in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes. Given Baffert’s reputation I wouldn’t like to see this horse win but you couldn’t write him off.
At the prices, I am going to take a chance on Tripoli. John Sadler’s son of Kitten’s Joy was well beat behind Medina Spirit over 9f last time. However, back at this track and over a furlong further, he could close the gap markedly. This horse was mostly campaigned on turf in the early part of his career. He was 2/11 on the grass but the switch to dirt has transformed him. He won on his first try on dirt in an ordinary race at Santa Anita. Sadler’s charge then ran a cracker in a valuable Del Mar Handicap over 8.5f, staying on strongly for a close 2nd under Tiago Pereira.
Course Form
Connections unsurprisingly stepped him up to 10f on his next start and pitched him in to G1 company at this track. They were well rewarded as he pulled clear with the runner up to win by over a length. He beat a horse called Dr Post into 3rd by nearly 6L and he got to within 2.5L of Art Collector (10/1 today) on his next start.
The 5th home, Independence Hall (7.5L behind), destroyed Code Of Honour by 7L last week in a G2 and he also finished just 4L behind Knicks Go (5/2 today) at Churchill Downs subsequently. The return to 10f at Del Mar is a huge plus for Tripoli and Irad Ortiz is an eye catching jockey booking. On that G1 effort back in August he should not be 25/1 and if he repeats that form, he wont be far away.
