Lingfield and Cheltenham Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Lingfield and Cheltenham Saturday Tips
It was pretty tough going for us on Friday. Fanzio was bang there until a poor jump knocked the stuffing out of him. Friends Don’t Ask ran no sort of race in the X-Country. Current Mood did give us a run for our money but she missed out on a place in 3rd. Let’s hope for a better showing on Paddy Power day. Check out Dave Stevos’ Lingfield and Cheltenham Saturday tips and preview below.
1.40 Cheltenham – Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Another day, another shocking turnout for a valuable chase at Cheltenham. Just four will go to post for this Grade 2 and the Skeltons will be hoping for compensation with Third Time Lucki after My Drogo’s fall on Friday. Rated 150, this 6yo son of Arcadio dotted up over C&D last time out. He had Buddy Rich 8L behind in 2nd and he beat Ballyadam by 4L subsequently at Navan. However, I think some punters are taking that form a tad too literally. Ballyadam didn’t jump well and he didn’t run to anywhere close to his best.
Third Time Lucki was beat at short odds at this meeting last season. Will lightning strike twice? Mick Pastor is the next best in the betting at 11/2. He had racked up four wins in a row before Captain Tom Cat beat him fair and square at Wincanton. However, the bookies reckon a 5lb swing and the drop back to 16f should be enough for the Nicholls horse to turn that form around. I disagree and I think the former course winner Captain Tom Cat shouldn’t be nearly double Mick Pastor’s odds.
Sebastopol completes the field for Tom Lacey and Aidan Coleman. His chasing debut saw him beat 20L in a match by Mick Pastor in a handicap in receipt of 5lbs. He is actually 5lbs worse off with that rival today so he is impossible to fancy at 18/1. Good ground is probably more important to Captain Tom Cat than the trip and he has career form figures of 112 over 16f. At the odds, I think a small bet on the good Dr Newland’s son of Dylan Thomas is warranted.
Lingfield and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Captain Tom Cat @ 17/2
2.15 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
The one I am taking a chance on in this year’s Paddy Power is Up The Straight. Trained by Richard Rowe, Tabitha Worsley will take 5lbs off his back. He gets in off a rating of 138 so with his jockey’s claim he is effectively in off 133. This fella ran poorly over this C&D in the Silver Trophy off 139. However, that came at the end of his season and he could well have been over the top. The fact he was sent off at just 4/1 suggests connections were expecting a lot more.
Previously, this fella had run very well in a Listed Novices’ Handicap at Sandown (20f sft). He finished 2nd behind Farinet, beat 6L, and the 20.5f trip on soft ground possibly just stretched his stamina. Two runs before that he ran a cracker when beat just 3.5L by Umbrigado at Fontwell (19f hvy). They were racing off level weights and the winner went on to score in successive handicap chases off 139 and 144 and he finished the season rated 149.
Course Form
That Umbrigado run suggests that Rowe’s charge can be competitive off his current mark. The 7yo son of Arcadio also has decent placed form over hurdles in the book. He was giving Captain Tom Cat 21lbs when 2.75L behind him in a handicap hurdle here last October (21f gd). He has since won a G2 over fences and is rated 144. Hopefully he boosts that form in the opener.
Up The Straight reappeared with an easy win at Plumpton and that will have boosted his confidence. He ran a cracker second time up last season at Cheltenham and I am hoping he does the same again. Good to soft ground is fine for this fella and he won’t mind if it rains either. He seems to handle any conditions. Richard Rowe thinks a lot of him and with 6 places on offer from a few firms, Up The Straight could go well off a feather weight at 25/1.
Lingfield and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Up The Straight e/w @ 25/1 NAP (6 Places Betfred)
2.50 Cheltenham – Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
Dragon Bones won for us at 40/1 last season but those type of odds about her are a thing of the past now. She ran a cracker behind Bardenstown Lad on her return to action over C&D and she could be well treated on her handicap debut off a mark of just 132. However, at 4/1 she doesn’t represent much value in a race of this nature and instead, I will be taking a chance on Irish raider Scheu Time. James Nash trains this son of Arakan and three of his last five runners have placed. Alohamora ran a nice race for him on Friday here at 66/1 when 7th of 20 so hopefully Scheu Time goes well too.
He is having just his second start at three miles. On his first go at Gowran last time he was held up in rear and he travelled into the race nicely. However, he made a mess of the second last and that cost him all chance. I don’t think you can say he definitively didn’t get the trip as he kept on pretty well all the way to the line afterwards. In my view, it was the mistake that checked all his momentum. He had previously run a respectable race behind two 100+ rated sorts on the level (14f gd) at Listowel, an effort that suggests 24f shouldn’t be beyond him over hurdles. Good ground is fine and at odds of 22/1, he is the each way selection.
Lingfield and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Scheu Time e/w @ 22/1 NB (4 places Hills)
3.05 Lingfield – Golden Rose Stakes (Listed)
The first of two Listed races from Lingfield is the 6f Golden Rose Stakes. A dozen sprinters will line up in the stalls and it is a cracking contest. It is a fast track qualifier for the All Weather Champs so they’ll all be keen to get the win. Good Effort is 3/3 here and he is the market leader. He needs to bounce back from a poor run at Belmont Park last time and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he did exactly that.
Jouska let the side down when unseating last time out at Doncaster. I fancied her to run a massive race but it wasn’t to be. The daughter of Cable Bay makes her all-weather debut now and if her pedigree is anything to go by, it is well worth a crack. She is related to a total of five winners and all of them scored on the all-weather.
Her sire has had 73 runners at Lingfield, producing 8 winners and 20 placed horses. She is drawn 12 but that shouldn’t matter as she’ll be held up for a late run. There looks to be a fair bit of pace in this and hopefully Jouska can stay on strongly and nick some place money at odds of 25/1.
Lingfield and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Jouska e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
3.25 Cheltenham – Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
The last live race from Cheltenham on Saturday is this 21f handicap hurdle. Pyramid Place isn’t a massive price but at 12/1, he could be worth backing e/w for in form Milton Harris and Paddy Brennan. He is also entered up at Fontwell on Sunday over 17f but I’d imagine that this is his preferred option. This horse prouced the bulk of his best form on soft and heavy ground last season. A winner on soft at Bangor (16.5f) and Taunton (16.5f), he also landed a handicap on heavy at Catterick (15.5f hvy).
He then bombed out in a G2 at Kempton and a class 2 handicap at Ascot, both on good ground. However, he returned from a break on good ground at Chepstow last month (16f gd) and he ran a massive race in 2nd off 119. The way he finished off that race suggested that this trip could suit the son of Authorized. He is related to a couple of flat horses that got 12f and his sire is a stamina influence so there is every chance he’ll get 21f. Harris has had five winners from his last 10 runners and off a mark of 123, hopefully Pyramid Place keeps his good run going.
Lingfield and Cheltenham Saturday Tips: Pyramid Place e/w @ 12/1 (4 places Coral/Lads)
3.40 Lingfield – Churchill Stakes (Listed)
A trip of 10f awaits a field of ten in this Listed Contest. Our old pal Pyledriver is the fav and Martin Dwyer maintains the partnership. He was last seen landing the Coronation Cup at Epsom and he is top rated in this by a distance. However, he does have to carry a penalty for that G1 win and he was beat in a handicap off 103 on his first run back from a break last season at Kempton on his sole all weather start. This race is a stepping stone to bigger races abroad this winter so it could be the right time to take him on.
Even though she is only rated 95, Kestenna could surprise with a big showing. Trained by the Gosdens, this filly is 2/5 on the all-weather with the wins coming at Wolves and Kempton. She has run at Lingfield twice. The first time she placed in a novice and then last time out she finished 5th in a Listed heat, both over a mile. Ryan Moore rode her the last day and she was too far back when the pace lifted.
However, I really liked how she finished off her race and this step up to 10f should be right up her alley. Oddly enough, her pedigree is all about speed but on what I’ve seen, she has more stamina than toe. If the first time blinkers sharpen her up from the gates and Martin Harley is within striking distance turning in, Kestenna couldn stay on late to reward e/w support at 33/1.
