2021 Brazil GP Raceday Update

Now it is time for James Punt’s 2021 Brazil GP Raceday Update:

It has been a strange weekend in Sao Paulo. Red Bull entered the weekend as the firm favourites. Verstappen’s chances were enhanced when Mercedes confirmed a new ICU for Hamilton and a 5-place grid penalty. It was all going so well even before they had turned a wheel.

It was when they hit the track that things turned sour. The Mercedes was quicker…much quicker. Hamilton was 0.367 faster in FP1. His fresh engine helping him to a comfortable margin on a short lap. We then went straight into qualifying, and Hamilton extended his advantage over Verstappen to 0.438.

Red Bull had turned a similar position in Mexico around, so no need to panic. And then the bombshell. Hamilton’s rear wing had failed to pass inspection, the DRS slot was too big. That could explain his cars remarkable straight-line speed. That Hamilton’s qualifying time was disqualified was inevitable and he would start the sprint race from the back of the grid. Sighs of relief at Red Bull.

But then Hamilton stormed through the field to finish fifth. He had made up 15 places in just 24 laps. He was just 2.149 seconds off third place and 20.8 seconds off the race winner, Valtteri Bottas.

Jumped By Bottas

Verstappen had started on pole but got jumped by Bottas who started on the soft tyres, made them last and just kept Verstappen out of range. Behind them we saw Carlos Sainz in the Ferrari hold off Sergio Perez in the other Red Bull. The Red Bulls just didn’t have the straight line speed to make a pass.

Red Bull are in trouble today. Hamilton will have to start from tenth place after his penalty is applied, but this is a 71 lap race. He made up 15 places in just 24 laps yesterday. Hamilton has an extra 47 laps in which to narrow the gap to the leaders, and he is ten places closer to the front.

Hamilton, and other drivers, have shown that effective come from behind drives are possible here. The tracks lay out makes passing easy if you are fast in the right places. The Mercedes is fast in the right places. Very fast. Their straight-line pace is almost too good to be true. The long uphill drag back up to the first corner gives a fast car plenty of opportunity to get a tow, deploy DRS and just breeze past. Hamilton was just in a different formula up that hill.

2021 Brazil GP Raceday Update: New Engine

He has a brand new engine to give him maximum power and this Mercedes rear wing and the sit-down suspension has put them comfortably ahead of the field. Usually, a car that is really fast on the straights here, struggles in the crucial infield sector, but the Mercedes is losing very little time there. Whatever they are doing with their wing means they can have their cake and eat it.

A win for Hamilton today looks more than possible, it looks likely. His threats seem limited, but the weather is one. It will be a lot hotter in today’s race and that could throw in a curve ball. Tyre management may be more important than usual. The Pirelli tyres are a step softer than normally used here and they may need more nursing. Mercedes have tended to struggle with overheating the rear tyres and a hot and sunny day is not ideal for them. The forecast for the start of the race is for mostly sunny conditions and 26 degrees.

2021 Brazil GP Raceday Update: Narrow Track

Another threat is crashing. This track is quite narrow and there are a few places were the cars have to get close together, the first three corners especially. It is not unusual to see cars colliding in the first few corners and that can filter back through the traffic behind. Hamilton is wise enough to know that he can’t win the race in the first lap, but he could lose it. Stay out of trouble and then use the pace of the car to make up places. If he did get a flying start, then so much the better, but it is not essential.

What of the opposition? He starts with Vettel ahead of him and Ricciardo behind and they both have the same Mercedes power units. That usually makes passing difficult as they are fast in the same places, but not now. The Mercedes was blasting past their customer teams like they weren’t there in the sprint race.

At the front, Mercedes will be relying on Bottas keeping the lead of the race at the start. All the better to keep Verstappen in dirty air and potentially backing up the field to help Hamilton close the gap. For Red Bull, they need Verstappen to grab the lead at the start to have any chance. Bottas will know that Verstappen cannot afford a collision and the Finn can get his elbows out. He then has the straight-line speed to defend from Verstappen, as he did yesterday, just keep him at arm’s length, driving in dirty, hot air.

Perez On The Premises

Red Bull also have Perez on the premises, and he will have to try and hold up Hamilton when he catches up. Try will be the word. The straight-line speed differential is just so big it is hard to see what he can do short of crashing into him.

Bottas has to be considered a possible winner. If for some reason, Hamilton’s charge does not materialise or comes too late he could hang on for the win. The pole sitter has won five of the six races here in the turbo hybrid era and if this were ‘normal’ circumstances Bottas would be favourite rather than a 4.50 shot. However, his job is to maximise Hamilton’s chances and he will pull over and let him past if and when his teammate catches him.

We backed Verstappen ante post and he remains the odds on favourite, but I have to concede that he is now up against it. Track temperature may come to his rescue, and all is not lost but he has a Mercedes in front and more than likely one coming behind him. He needs a start like last weekend.

The rest of our ante post bets also look up against it. The sprint race was a bit of a disaster. Both Alpha Tauri’s fell back from their grid positions and now start seventh and fifteenth. Gasly should be able to remain top 10, but Tsunoda has a mountain to climb from fifteenth.

Kimi Raikkonen also lost places in the sprint race. He was hit by his own teammate and sent to the back of the pack and starts a lowly eighteenth.

It could be the first whitewash for the tips this season.

Not Much Of Interest

It is hard to see much of interest in today’s markets. Hamilton is the car that is obviously out of position, and he will move up. He is odds on for a podium and a contender for the win. Gasly and Tsunoda are faster than their grid positions suggest but we are already on them.

The drivers all have free choice on tyre selections which makes it a bit more boring. Alpine and Ferrari are a little more constrained strategically as they have just one set of new hard tyres left. That is not a disaster has the can go medium, hard, medium in what should be a two stop race. We might get somebody trying a one stopper with a hard, medium run, but with the hotter weather that would be very marginal.

Esteban Ocon makes some appeal at 2.20 to finish in the points He starts eighth but will be passed by Hamilton quickly enough. There is nobody massively faster behind him. Alonso in the other Alpine is a quick starter and a threat. Ricciardo in the McLaren also has claims and any value on Ocon is marginal.

He is better value to win Ladbrokes Group 3. Here is up against Ricciardo, Vettel and Alonso, much the same rivals for his points paying place, but he is 3.75 to top the group. He starts in pole position in terms of the group and of what we have seen in the rather messy sprint format weekend, they are all fairly close on pace.

2021 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to win Ladbrokes Group 3 @ 3.75

That is it for what looks like a bad weekend at the office. We go again next weekend.

-JamesPunt