Thursday Evening Grand Slam Of Darts Preview

Jonny Clayton ensured we didn’t go home empty handed on Wednesday night. He comfortably covered the 4.5 leg handicap but Gerwyn Price didn’t have it as easy. Rob Cross and James Wade both won easily so we at least one of our ante-post picks is into the last 8. The action continues tonight, check out James Punt’s Thursday Evening Grand Slam of darts preview and tips below.

Michael Smith vs. Joe Cullen

Their H2H record is 9-9 and their only meeting in 2021 was back in the UK Open and that was a 10-9 win for Smith. Both players are in good form, Smith winning seven of his last ten, Cullen eight. Smith is checking out at 43%, Cullen 38%, but Cullen has been better on the 180s hitting eleven at 0.58 per leg compared to eight at 0.33 for Smith. Cullen is averaging 97, Smith 95, but both players took their foot off the gas in the last group match. Everything points to a close match, but very few of their past matches have been.

Smith is the favourite with most bookmakers and a best priced 1.91. Joe Cullen is the marginal 2.00 outsider. Cullen is the 1.85 favourite to hit the most 180s. However, Smith can do better in that department if he gets going.

There is little of interest in this match. The odds look about right and I can see no edge. Hopefully Cullen goes through for our ante post bet to stay alive. If he can hit Smith hard early on and get his head to drop the job is half done. But their past matches have no set pattern, and this is best watched.

Peter Wright vs. Jose de Sousa

These two have met eight times with De Sousa winning four, Wright three and one draw. This match seems to be defined more by recent form than past form. Wright admits that he isn’t playing well, has lost six of his last ten matches, is averaging just 92 and checking out at an alarming 25%. He is hitting plenty of 180s, nine at a rate of 0.45, but that his average is so low, underlines just how bad his doubling has been.

The Special One isn’t playing much better. He has won seven of his last ten matches, but so far in this event he is averaging 92.6, checking out at 53% and has hit four 180s at 0.17 per leg. His doubling stats are skewed by hitting 83% in his opening match.

Two players well short of not only their best form, but short of their B-game.

It looks likely that this match will come down to who can hit the most doubles. De Sousa would look to be favourite in that department.

Peter Wright is the 1.83 favourite with De Sousa the 2.10 outsider. On current form, that looks the wrong way round. With both players looking suspect, it isn’t a great betting heat, but there must be enough value on De Sousa to make him backable.

Thursday Evening Grand Slam Of Darts Tips: 1 point Jose de Sousa to win @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes, Hills

Mensur Suljovic vs. Fallon Sherrock

Forewarned is forearmed should be Suljovic’s motto tonight. He was one of Sherrock’s two victims at the 2019 World Championship. Once again, he will be up against a noisy crowd as well as Fallon.

You can analyse this all day long, but the bottom line is just how Suljovic will play in a very hostile environment. He is the better player but is facing a player at the very top of her game and a couple of thousand partisan fans.

The tournament stats show Mensur averaging 99.6, checking out at an excellent 70% and hitting nine 180s at a rate of 0.41 per leg. Sherrock is averaging 95.2, checking out at 37% and has hit eight 180s at 0.42 per leg.

Sherrock is playing 10 points above her 12 month average but that average is arguably artificially low due to the level of opposition she was playing against. Clearly, she is capable of raising her game significantly in front of the crowds.

Mensur On Song

Mensur has played some great stuff so far, apart from the very poor match with De Sousa when both players where dreadful. His doubling has been impressive and that makes him very dangerous. However, hitting the outer ring while a couple of thousand punters are jeering you will not be easy.

Suljovic is the 1.40 favourite, Sherrock 3.20. If this was a floor event, I’d be all over Suljovic but with a crowd, things get a lot harder for him. The longer format should help him, but the key is to not let Sherrock get her nose in front, to keep the crowd subdued and the noise down. Sherrock wants a good start and to hit a few early 180s to get the crowd going.

The bookmakers reckon this should go to around 16 legs and if they are right then overs on the 180s at odds against makes some appeal. Both have been hitting them at a healthy rate and over 8.5 is not unrealistic. The threat is if Suljovic does what he did against Matt Campbell, play at his best and snuff Sherrock out. Then it could be a much shorter match.

Thursday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 1 point over 8.5 180s @ 2.20 with BET356, Ladbrokes

Michael van Gerwen vs. Gary Anderson

Anderson will get the pace of play he likes but he will also likely get beaten. Their H2H record is 44-17 to MVG with three draws. Their last ten matches saw MVG winning eight, Anderson one with one draw. This year they had one draw in the Premier League and two comfortable wins for MVG, 8-4 and 7-2. This has been far from a good year for MVG, yet Anderson was not able to beat him and lost heavily twice.

Now that Van Gerwen has returned to better form, this looks like a big ask for Anderson to win. MVG has won 14 of his last 15 matches, his tournament average is 105, checkout rate 47.5% and he is hitting 180s at 0.5 per leg.

Anderson has won six of his last ten matches, is averaging 93.3 in this event, checking out at 39% and hitting 180s at 0.25 per leg. On the positive side, he has improved in every match and played well against Barney, averaging 103.9 and hitting 55% on doubles. He needs that sort of performance and probably more if he is to compete with a rejuvenated Van Gerwen.

MVG is the 1.33 favourite, with Anderson 3.75. They met in this event at this stage last year and MVG won 10-2. Ominous. Anderson averaged 97 in that match and still got smashed up.

Thursday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 2 points MVG to win -3.5 legs @ 2.20 with Skybet

-JamesPunt