Saudi Arabian GP Qualifying Update

Now, it’s time for James Punt’s Saudi Arabian GP qualifying update. If you fancy checking out his pre-race preview click here.

After the three free practice sessions have finished, I’m still left wondering who is faster.

Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen are in a class apart and it would be surprising to see anyone else involved for pole position, unless we see something very strange, and we might.

Hamilton was faster in both FP1 and FP2 yesterday, but it was Verstappen in FP3. The soft tyre is the issue. Red Bull just couldn’t make it work yesterday but this afternoon, it was Mercedes having that problem. Hamilton set his best time on the hard tyre but was some 0.3 seconds slower on the supposedly faster soft tyre.

It is not a problem for them in Q2. Mercedes can qualifying on the hard or medium and start the race on that tyre, but in Q3, when the starting order for the grid is set, they will need to use the soft. Hamilton only has the one set of new hard tyres left so they are in a bit of a muddle.

Verstappen took some time to set his best time on the soft tyre, taking eight laps before he found their sweet spot. That would be no good in actual qualifying, but he was then able to stick on a new set and immediately improved on his time.

Bottas Off The Pace

Our ante post selection for pole position, Valtteri Bottas, was way off the pace this afternoon and was struggling, ending up only sixth fastest. The track, which I expected to be low grip, is in fact very grippy and his low grip expertise will not be to the fore after all.

The four Honda powered cars filled four of the top five places which suggests that the Honda power/high rake philosophy is working well here, which wasn’t on many people’s radar. The Mercedes customer teams have struggled and outside of Mercedes themselves, only Norris in tenth made the top 10.

With qualifying taking place under the floodlights the track temperature will drop, but last night it did not drop by much, only 2 or 3 degrees. A cooler track isn’t going to help Mercedes switch on the soft tyres, and they may have to settle for second place on the grid for Hamilton. That is not a great problem. Their race pace looks very good, and they should be able to make that advantage work over a race distance, but ideally, they would like to lead from the front and they need Bottas to join the party. Hamilton will not want to be surrounded by the Honda powered cars on this track.

Layout Concerns

The lay out of the track is a cause for concern. Many of the flat-out curves are blind and there have been a few near misses with cars doing 200mph have suddenly closed in on a car doing 50 and on the wrong part of the track. In qualifying, with 20 cars all trying to get quick laps in, the chances are that some people are going to get baulked, or worse.

We haven’t seen much in the way of accidents yet, but there is a feeling that we may well see a big shunt at some point. That means red flags and that can really throw a spanner in the works. I have a feeling that something is going to happen this weekend which will have a big influence on the championships, but maybe we will just have a very fast version of Monaco after all.

Saudi Arabian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to qualify on pole position @ 2.80 with SportingIndex

The match betting is predictably dull but there is a team match bet which looks to have a bit of value.

Alpine were very happy yesterday, finishing FP2 in fifth and sixth, but they were ninth and eleventh this afternoon. That was still better than the best McLaren, Norris in tenth. Alpine are on a bit of a roll at the minute while McLaren have been struggling. The French team are worth a small wager.

Saudi Arabian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Alpine to out qualify McLaren @ 2.25 with Betfred

-JamesPunt