Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Update

After a thrilling qualifying session yesterday it should be a cracker of a race today. Check out James Punt’s Saudi Arabian GP Raceday update below:

It was all going so well. Verstappen was putting in an incredible final qualifying run and heading for a comfortable pole position. But on the last corner, a small lock up meant he went in too deep and clipped the wall on the exit. Even though it was the slowest part of the track, Verstappen’s suspension was broken and the lap over.

Worse could still be to come. It is bad enough having to start third, behind both Mercedes, but there is a chance that his gearbox will have been damaged, require a replacement and a 5-place grid penalty. With two and half hours to go before the start of the race, there is no official word yet, but the rumour mill is that it is OK, and Verstappen will start third.

Red Bull Pace

Mercedes were surprised by Red Bull’s pace on Saturday. Hamilton had been quickest in both free practice sessions on Friday, not by a lot but ahead. Verstappen was then fastest in FP3 and again in qualifying. Toto Wolff said that Verstappen would have been 0.5 ahead had he not hit the wall. That may be a bit OTT, but certainly 0.3 was very likely. It left Mercedes scratching their heads but perhaps Red Bull were always going to be competitive here and it was just that the track wasn’t there for them on Friday.

The brand-new tarmac was evolving lap by lap and that can change the way the cars behave on the circuit. A really good set up on Friday, may not be so good after another FP session an F2 race. The track may have come to Red Bull and away from Mercedes.

Friday’s long run times made for desperate reading for Red Bull. They were not even second fastest, that was Ferrari. The times were a bit skewed by Leclerc’s late crash and red flag, but Mercedes looked to be over 0.5 ahead. So, to find themselves 0.5 behind in qualifying, will have confused Mercedes.

Will Mercedes still hold a long run pace advantage, or has that evaporated with an evolving track surface? We won’t know until the race unfolds but I think we must take Friday’s times with a pinch of salt.

Even if Red Bull have closed or surpassed Mercedes long run pace, Verstappen still has the problem of being in third place, with both Mercedes in front of him.

First Corner Requires Care

The circuit features a very short run into the first corner, a sharp left into a sharp right and very narrow. There is some bail out room but the race starts in the F2 have seen first corner crashes in all three. This afternoon’s race saw a red flag within a few seconds following a stalled car being hit on the grid. The F2 cars are noticeably smaller and trying to get two F1 cars round the first two corners will need both drivers to be careful.

If it was just Hamilton and Verstappen, Max could get his elbows out and Hamilton would have to yield, but we now have Bottas between the two. The Finn’s job will be to stay ahead of Verstappen through the first corners and to then stay ahead for as long as possible but doing so as slowly as possible. That is the perfect scenario for Mercedes. Verstappen can’t be as muscular against Bottas as he can with Hamilton. It does look like a good first corner to defend from pole position.

If Verstappen has to run behind the two Mercs, there looks to be few overtaking opportunities. Running a better strategy, making a better pitstop or just getting lucky with the inevitable safety car or cars, may offer the best chance of making up places, but only if the Red Bull is the faster car on long run pace, and we cannot be sure of that.

One Stop Race

Strategy wise, this looks like a one stop race. The tyres have been holding up well and everyone in the top 10 will start on the medium compound, with the exception of Lando Norris who opted for the soft tyres in Q2. That is not ideal for him as he will have to pit first and surrender track position. However, if we get a safety car around the 10 lap mark, Norris could ditch the softs and go on to the hards and probably be able to make them last until the end. Those on the mediums would be in two minds as to what to do, so things could turn out OK for Norris in the end.

For the rest of the top 10, there is no strategy advantage or disadvantage as they all start on the same tyre. Some drivers may be tempted to try and spin out a long first run but you have to think that strategies will be very fluid today with a safety car or three to put into the mix.

Even those outside the top 10 are unlikely to go for an alternative strategy. The soft tyres are too hard to manage and the hard tyre slow to warm up so not a good starting tyre. Aston Martin may start on the hards and go for a long stint. They are miles off the pace and have nothing to lose but it doesn’t look like a track that is going to offer up a big strategic opportunity.

Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Preview: Race Winner

We have no past form go guide us as to how the race will pan out. It is a street style circuit and that usually rewards track position to a great degree. Overtaking is likely to be hard and passing in the pits may be the best opportunity. We are not sure if Red Bull will have the faster car over a race distance but at the very least, they look to be very competitive.

Mercedes has the advantage of starting from the front row and Hamilton has his faithful wingman alongside him. This could be the deciding factor. If Mercedes can pull off a good start and keep Max behind Bottas, they hold the aces. If Max can get ahead of Bottas, then its game on. Bottas will be starting on the dusty side of the track which does offer Max a chance to nip ahead but he would have to be brave and hope that Bottas doesn’t take one for the team and be prepared to make contact.

The race may well depend on the first corner and Bottas maybe hasn’t been the most impressive in his role as wingman at times. Mercedes, and Hamilton, have been giving Bottas lots of big love this weekend and his ass must be a very smoky place.

Track Position Pivotal

The big question has to be, do you rate the chances of the guy on pole with his teammate hopefully riding shot gun for him, or for the guy in third having the faster car? Normally, faster car guy wins, but on a tight street circuit the faster car is less important and track position more important.

The bookmakers make Hamilton the very hot favourite at 1.44 and Verstappen a best priced 4.00. Quite the difference.

Verstappen has started form third seven times in 2021. He won two, failed to finish two, was second twice and tenth once. That tenth was due to crash damage to his car in Hungary. The first DNF was when his tyre blew in Baku while he was comfortably leading the race and the second the crash with Hamilton at Monza.

Past form suggests that Verstappen is far from out of the race, but this track is the big unknown. From Hamilton’s point of view, not including Belgium, only eight of this year’s races (19) have been won from pole position.

There has to be some value in Verstappen’s odds.

Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win @ 4.00 with SpreadEx, Skybet

Other bets

I suspect that this race is not going to be straight forward. It could be of course, but I get the feeling that chaos is not far away. We have had a few races which were mad or very close to it. Azerbaijan, Hungary and Russia spring to mind. Those were won by Perez, Ocon and Hamilton but also saw podiums for Vettel and Gasly in Baku, Vettel again in Hungary, and Sainz got a third in Russia.

It is worth picking an outsider just in case we do see something strange. I would rule out Vettel this time round as the Aston Martin is a basket case this weekend. Norris is on a sub-prime tyre strategy which counts against him a little, Leclerc perhaps over performed in his Ferrari yesterday and his street circuit racing has seen quite a few crashes in the past.

Pierre Gasly’s sixth yesterday in qualifying was his worst placing in any session this weekend. The Alpha Tauri has shown great pace all weekend and even Tsunoda was fourth in FP3. The car has the pace to take advantage of a lucky break, but the teams two drivers do tend to fall back from their starting positions on Sundays. However, Gasly kept or improved on his starting position at the two previous street circuits this season. He is an experienced driver and knows how to take his chances.

Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish on the podium @ 7.00 generally available

Antonio Giovinazzi qualified in a commendable tenth place yesterday. He has been quick all weekend and has taken advantage of Sainz’ demise and the fact that the Aston Martins haven’t turned up. He scored a point in Monaco and finished eleventh in Baku despite having to start at the back of the grid that day. Giovinazzi has shown some decent form between the concrete barriers already this year. We have backed him a few times to finish in the points and he has finished eleventh of course, but I’ll go again and hope he gets a clean start.

Saudi Arabian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Antonio Giovinazzi to finish in the points @ 3.25 with Skybet, BET365

Ladbrokes are offering 2.00 for the safety car to be used at least twice which makes some appeal, but I think we have leant towards a strange race already with the recommended bets.

-JamesPunt