Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Update

Now, it’s time for James Punt’s Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Update:

This may be a World Championship decider and all that, but the shine has been taken off the race with the news that Nikita Mazepin has failed a Covid test and will not take part. Still, that’s one less backmarker for the leaders to overtake. But who will be overtaking those backmarkers first?

Yesterday’s qualifying was a surprise for just about everybody. The super-hot favourite for pole was Lewis Hamilton but he was comprehensively beaten into second place by Max Verstappen. It was an excellent lap from the Dutchman but was it him, or was it the car?

Had Hamilton got pole, today’s race would have been much more predictable, but now we have to try and work out who has the quicker car and who has the better strategy.

Strategy wise, it has to be advantage Hamilton. In Q2, Verstappen locked his tyres when running the preferred medium compound and as he had no more new ones left, he was forced to run the soft tyre and the sub-optimal strategy.

Medium Compound

Hamilton (along with Bottas and Tsunoda) will start on the medium compound tyre. That is a more durable compound but a little slower for the opening laps, while the other seven drivers in the top ten start of the soft compound. The soft tyre will be quicker off the line, will heat up more quickly and will be faster until the point that degradation erodes its performance. If that loss of performance comes relatively quickly then a two stop race strategy may be required and even if the soft tyres last until lap 15 – 20, it will still be a long run on the hard compound, to reach the end of the race on one stop.

Hamilton has more options. He can run a longer first stint, gaining track position when the soft tyre runners have to pit before him. So long as the mediums have good speed in them, he should be able to open up a gap and make the overcut work. His run to the finish would be shorter and that means less tyre management and he would be able to push hard at the end of the race.

Early Risk For Hamilton

The risk for Hamilton is that he loses ground in the opening laps. It is not a given that he will be only be chasing Verstappen. It is possible that the soft shod Norris and/or Perez could use the advantage of the soft tyre to pass Hamilton. He doesn’t want to be running in dirty air and having to making overtaking moves. Such is the pace advantage Hamilton has over the cars behind him on the grid, that he shouldn’t be held up for long, he dispatched Ocon quickly last week when the Frenchman was running between him and Verstappen. However, Perez would be driving a very wide Red Bull and not giving anything away.

If things don’t go well for Hamilton at the start, he has the option to throw in a curve ball and pit first. He could then pull off an undercut. That will be his plan B but he does at least a have strategic flexibility that Verstappen doesn’t.

Abu Dhabi GP Raceday: Who has the fastest car?

At the heart of the puzzle is the question of who has the fastest car. In free practice it was the Mercedes and Red Bull looked on the back foot. They had to strip downforce off the car to improve straight line speed and the track modifications appeared to be favouring Mercedes. But come Q3 and it was Verstappen who ended up 0.38 seconds faster, a very healthy gap. If it was the car, then Verstappen should be able to control the race from the front, plan B or not.

However, if it was the driver that made the difference then Verstappen has to drive 58 qualifying laps, starting on the soft tyres and make a one stop race work. That isn’t feasible.

Of course, if we get an early safety car, then plan C comes into play and everyone can run a two-stop strategy. This track is less likely to produce a safety car than last weekend’s venue which was guaranteed to produce red flags, never mind safety cars, but it is entirely possible.

It is a tough puzzle, but I would have to make Hamilton the marginal favourite given his more flexible strategy, but that advantage can be wiped out by a safety car. The bookmakers have Hamilton as the 2.10 favourite and Verstappen 2.25. I can’t argue with those odds and the championship battle will be a fascinating watch, but not a great betting event.

Pole Position A Plus For Verstappen

The pole position driver has won this race for the last six years which is a positive for Verstappen but will the track modifications change that? Another pro Max angle is that his long run times on Friday were better, but by how much is the question? It is always a bit of a guess and while everyone agrees that the Red Bull was quicker some say only by 0.01, others by a few tenth’s.

If picking the race winner is too tricky, is there any value elsewhere?

I was close to going for a double points finish for Alpine in the earlier preview but decided to wait and see. They have qualified ninth and eleventh. Alonso was one of the drivers compromised by the traffic jam at the end of Q2, but the car has shown good pace. Ocon was second fastest in FP2, the one practice session held in the same conditions as today’s race. Alonso is a good starter and makes plenty of overtaking moves. From eleventh, the second pole position, he has a free choice on tyre selection and can pick whichever strategy the team think is best.

Keeping Ocon in the top might be the riskier part of the bet but there isn’t anyone who looks massively faster behind him on the grid. Gasly in twelfth is way down on his usual grid position but he hasn’t really been on it this weekend and the Alpha Tuari’s race pace is usually shy of its qualifying pace. Alpine have had six double points finishes from the last twelve races and there is enough value in the odds today.

Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alpine to have a double points finish @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes, Skybet

We are already on Sainz for a top 6 finish and he is well placed in fifth place. Leclerc podium hopes look slim now after qualifying seventh, and Alonso will need some luck to make the top 6.

This season has shown remarkable reliability of the cars. We didn’t get a race in Belgium, but from the other 20, fifteen have seen less than three DNF’s. This track has seen races with high attrition but also low attrition races (average 2.57 in the turbo hybrid era). With Mazepins withdrawal and no replacement allowed, we only have 19 starters but over 16.5 classified finishers should be an odds on shot and would have paid out in three of the last four seasons here.

Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 2 points over 16.5 classified finishers @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes

That’s it for 2021. I hope you have enjoyed the previews and I’ll be back for the new era next year, God willing.

-JamesPunt