Monday Afternoon PDC World Championship Tips – JP
Monday Afternoon PDC World Championship Tips
After a two day break, the darts is back! James punt was in great form before the break and he is hoping to continue in the same vein. Check out his Monday Afternoon PDC World Championship Tips below.
Ross Smith vs. Dirk van Duijvenbode
There are tricky matches and really tricky matches, and this is the latter. Their H2H record is 2-2, two matches were on the development tour in 2013 but they met twice in 2020 and it was one win each, both ending 6-4.
Ross Smith is making his first appearance in the third round of the World Championship. He has won seven of his last ten matches and is one of the players in good form for the last couple of months.
Dirk van Duijvenbode reached the quarter finals here last year. He has won six of his last ten matches and like Smith came into the tournament in good form. He is the most prolific 180 hitter, but Smith is in the same postcode, ranked sixth for 180s per leg. Their scoring is very similar but where Smith does trump Duijvenbode is his checkout % of 41.5% compared to 36.7% for Dirk. Across the season Smith has the 8th best checkout rate and perhaps that will be the deciding factor.
Dirk Has Experience Edge
Duijvenbode is a bit more experienced in terms of big TV matches but in terms of form and ability, this is a coin toss. Duijvenbode is best priced 1.91 and Smith 1.95.
The Aubergenius was not impressive when beating Boris Koltsov 3-2 in his opening match. He averaged just 88.7 and he was a bag of nerves. That win should have settled his nerves and we have seen him start poorly in a major before but go on to reach the final. Smith has two wins under his belt and he is well settled into the tournament. It is Duijvenbode who needs to improve and perhaps Smith should be the favourite here.
With both players big 180 hitters there is the temptation to get involved in the total 180s market but with the line at 15.5, the bookies seem to have that about right as well.
Smith might edge this, but the longer format gives Dirk time to play himself in. I can’t see either player winning the match easily.
Monday Afternoon PDC World Championship Tips: 1 point over 5.5 sets @ 1.62 with Boylesports
Michael Smith vs. William O’Connor
Smith did a number on Ron Meulenkamp in his opener, winning 3-0 and averaging 106 (the highest of the tournament so far) helped by a 75% checkout rate. We all know that the checkouts are where Smith can have big problems so we shall have to watch how he goes in that department. The last time Smith beat Meulenkamp in the World Championship, he went on to reach the final, losing to MVG. After that he lost his opening match for the last two years, so he will be relieved to have got through.
William O’Connor has won six of his last ten matches. He is throwing well and looks in good form. He came through a good match with Danny Lauby which went to a decider and then had a 3-0 win against Glen Durrant. The Irishman didn’t have to play well to win that, but he was 69% on his doubles which is a good sign. The Magpie has only played one third round match here and lost that 1-4 to Ryan Searle in 2018.
Smith The Better Player
Smith is the better player, but he doesn’t always make the most of his ability. Trying to get the TV Major monkey off his back has proven to be beyond him but that pressure is less in the earlier rounds. O’Connor is more the journeyman, a decent player and not to be taken lightly. However, he’ll not be many people’s idea of a potential tournament winner.
The killer stat is their H2H record which sees a 7-1 lead for Smith and O’Connor’s last and only win was back in 2010. They have met twice this year and Smith won both 6-3.
O’Connor is playing well enough to cause Smith some problems, but Bully is better in most departments and with such a good H2H record he will be the more confident player. Smith is the 1.29 favourite, and he has won five of his six third round matches here, three of them 4-2.
Monday Afternoon PDC World Championship Tips: 1 point Michael Smith to win 4-2 @ 5.00 with Skybet
Florian Hempel vs. Raymond Smith
Hempel has beaten the in form Schindler and the fifth seed, Dimitri van den Bergh and dropped just the one set across the two matches. Van den Bergh averaged 101 in defeat, so it wasn’t like Hempel caught him on a bad day. The German largely matched him for scoring but blew him away on the doubles, checking out at 75%
Raymond Smith, the third Smith of the night, has also only dropped one set but he has had an easier draw. He is averaging 94 for the tournament, which is a good standard, but he might find himself outscored by Hempel. Smith has been rock solid on his doubles however, so he looks like he can play to a good level and take his chances when they present themselves. Hitting 57% of his doubles across both his matches so far means he must be in contention.
This will be the biggest match of these two players lives. Nerves are bound to play a big part. The winner is guaranteed £35000 and a realistic chance of a quarter final spot if they can beat the winner of Lennon vs. King. I have not seen enough of Smith to know how he plays under the pressure of a really big match and with Hempel’s career being so short, he is a bit of an unknown quantity at this stage of a major.
Hempel Confident
Hempel does have a bit arrogance about him, very confident and could there be a bit of a parallel with him and Gerwyn Price. Both have been professionals in other sports before turning to darts. Both are cocky and have inbuilt competitive natures.
Smith has only played eight matches on TV and he has won half of them and has usually been very strong on the doubles. He has looked very composed and focused so far and if he can keep his form at the same level, he will win legs and sets.
The market has Hempel as the 1.44 favourite and Smith at 2.88. I would make Hempel the favourite but maybe not so short. He has lost five of his last ten matches after all and playing at this level will be new to him.
The only bet I like here is for over 5.5 sets. I don’t expect either player crumble and Smith looks more than capable of holding his own.
