Tuesday Night PDC World Championship Tips – JP
Tuesday Night PDC World Championship Tips
It was a difficult afternoon for us at the Ally Pally. However, we go again! We are back in action this evening, check out James Punt’s Tuesday Night PDC World Championship tips below.
Rob Cross vs. Daryl Gurney
Rob Cross has arrested his decline by winning the European Championship and PC 26. He had been heading in the right direction for a while but just wasn’t quite getting everything right on the night. He has improved his averages, become more consistent but he is still not back to his best. There are still lapses and when his doubles stop flowing, he tends to lose. He has won six of his last ten matches, which is decent but not up there with the likes of Price, Clayton, MVG or Wright.
Daryl Gurney is on the same path as Cross, just a bit further back down the track. We are seeing bigger averages more often. His checkout rate has been over 40% in seven of his last ten matches and he has won seven of his last ten. He needs to play more often to get the shine on his game, but he is heading in the right direction.
Cross Dominates H2H
Their H2H record shows a healthy 12-6 lead for Cross, with one Premier League draw. Gurney has not beaten Cross since 2019 and Cross has won both their matches in 2021, 6-1 and 6-5. In terms of their stats, Cross has a slightly higher average, but not significantly. Gurney is better on the 180s by a reasonable margin, and Cross is better on the checkouts, 41% to 38%.
Rob Cross is some peoples’ fancy to win the title and he is a former champion and a four time major champion, but Gurney is a two time major winner and he is quite used to these big matches. The stat that separates them is win rate. Cross has won 68% of his matches in 2021, Gurney 59%. Gurney is improving that rate, but it is significant and the reason why Cross is the 1.57 favourite and Gurney 2.50. Cross has won both of his third round matches at Ally Pally, Gurney has played seven and won two.
It is hard to argue with the odds given their H2H record and third round form here, but as two darts players, there is not a huge gulf between them and we should get a reasonably close game.
Tuesday Night PDC World Championship Tips: 1 point over 5.5 sets @ 1.75 with SportingIndex
Peter Wright vs. Damon Heta
The H2H record is 3-1 to Wright and in their most recent meeting it was Wright who prevailed 10-8 in the Players Championship finals third round. Wright has won nine of his last ten matches, which is excellent, but he just hasn’t impressed me to that degree. His run to the Grand Slam final saw four poor performances, but he still won two of those matches. In the Players Championship finals he was decent, occasionally good but nothing outstanding. However, he is a very experienced player who can get himself out of trouble given half a chance.
Damon Heta is heading in the right direction. He has committed to living in the UK and with the Covid situation has not been able to travel home for a long time. He is a bit fatigued, could do with a break, but this is the World Championship so he will be up for this. His performances against the elite players is where he needs to improve. In televised tournaments his H2H record with Wright is played three, lost three. He has played in eleven TV matches in 2021 and lost six and only once did he win back to back matches. His scoring in 2021 TV matches is 91.7, notably below his seasonal average of 96.
Wright is the 1.36 favourite and rightly so. Heta’s A game can bother anyone but we rarely see it on TV and while I am not totally sold on Wrights form, he is hard to oppose. I suspect Heta will win legs and sets but come up short again. He has won six of his nine third round matches here, half of them 4-2.
Tuesday Night PDC World Championship tips: 1 point Peter Wright to win 4-2 @ 5.00 Skybet
Michael van Gerwen vs. Chris Dobey
The most interesting thing about this match is whether MVG passes his Covid test. Sitting beside Vincent van der Voort for Christmas dinner has put him in the firing line for this highly infectious Omicron variant. He and the tournament organisers will have everything crossed that he passes. Punters who have backed other players, not so much.
The big stat here is their H2H record. It is a whopping 9-0 to Van Gerwen. In major championships they have met just once and that ended 4-0 to MVG at the 2019 World Grand Prix. They have met twice in 2021 and MVG won 6-3 and 6-5. Four of their nine matches have gone to a deciding leg.
Dobey A Heavy Scorer
In terms of ability and scoring, Dobey is right up there with the best and since the start of October, MVG tops the averages with 100.5, but Dobey is third on 99.7. MVG just shades it on checkout % but only by a small amount and he hits more 180s per leg, 31.3% compared to 22.5%. If Dobey plays to his recent standard, he should be able to give Michael a match, but can he do it mentally?
Dobey has played four third round matches here, winning two. He generally scores well at Ally Pally but just comes up against someone who plays better. He lost 1-4 to Daryl Gurney last year, despite averaging 99.3. Dobey has lost six of his last ten matches and his form took a dip after winning his second players championship title of the year at the start of November. Dobey does not win as many matches as he should and playing well is no guarantee that he will win any match, never mind MVG.
Van Gerwen has won eight of his last ten matches, is scoring better than anyone, but a bit like Dobey, he no longer wins as many matches as he should.
It would not be a complete shock if Dobey won given his ability, but it would be a surprise. MVG is the 1.22 favourite, and he has won ten consecutive third round matches here. Of those ten wins, four were 4-0, four 4-1 and two 4-2. Three of the last four were 4-0 but two of those were to Ricky Evans and Dobey is a level above Evans. I’ll take Dobey to get something out of the match, but will it be one or two sets?
