2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips – DS
2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Preview
The festival credentials of a host of horses will be put to the test on Saturday. There is a star studded cast for the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival. We’ll have no less than four Grade 1s, a Grade 2 and two top class handicaps to get stuck into. Hopefully, we can manage to unearth a winner or two. Check out Dave Stevos 2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday tips below.
1.05 – Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Four of the top eight in the betting for the Albert Bartlett will fight it out in this competitive heat. Gordon Elliott trains two of them, the 2/1 favourite Hollow Games and 6/1 shot Minella Crooner. The former won his first four starts under rules, two bumpers, a maiden hurdle and a G3. Elliott stepped up to G1 company at Naas (20f sft) last time out and Hollow Games only finished 3rd, 4.5L behind the winner Ginto and a neck behind the runner up Grand Jury.
On that form Hollow Games is surely too short. He didn’t really have any excuses at Naas and at the odds, Grand Jury surely represents better value at 11/2. Minella Crooner is dipping his toe into Graded company for the first time and he is in at the deep end. He was impressive when winning his maiden last time by 11L (24f sft), his third win from four starts under rules. Jack Kennedy rides and it’ll be interesting to see how he gets on.
Keep Dreaming
Eric Bloodaxe and Freedom To Dream met in a G2 at Limerick at Christmas. The Joseph O’Brien trained winner had 7L to spare over Peter Fahey’s charge but the ground was bottomless. Eric Bloodaxe seemed to relish the conditions but Freedom To Dream didn’t enjoy it as much. I think back on this better ground that Freedom To Dream could get a lot closer to that rival.
The 7yo son of Secret Singer has run well at the track before. He chased home Appreciate it in a 20f Leopardstown bumper in 2019. He got injured in that race and he was given the following season off. On his return at Punchestown in November he landed a maiden hurdle (21.5f gd/yld), beating Sam’s Choice by 0.5L. That form isn’t overly strong but he showed he could be competitive in Grade 2 company last time on ground he disliked and with conditions more in his favour on Saturday, hopefully Kevin Sexton can steer him into the money. At 33/1, Freedom To Dream is the e/w pick.
2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Freedom To Dream e/w @ 33/1
1.35 – Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
Nine 4yos are due to go to post for this Grade 1 and the bookies make it a two horse race. They are struggling to split Fil Dor and Vauban, both of whom can be backed at around 6/4. Fil Dor is the horse with form in the book and he has already won two Graded races.
Vauban, on the other hand, was a Listed winner on the level in France. He shaped with promise behind Pied Piper on his hurdling and stable debut at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. The winner of that race franked the form at Cheltenham, hacking up in a G2 by 9L.
That win came on proper good ground though and it remains to be seen whether Pied Piper ran to the same level on the heavy when beating Vauban. If he did, Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci’s charge is going to be hard to beat here, especially if the first time tongue tie elicits more improvement. I’m happy enough to watch those two and hopefully find a bit of each way value elsewhere.
Icare Form Not Strong
Icare Allen is 2/2, winning a 12f bumper in France and then landing the odds in good style in a maiden here over Xmas. However, that was not a very strong maiden and he’ll need to take a massive step forward to get anywhere near the top two on that piece of form. The Tide Turns also won his maiden at the first time of asking at Punchestown. He had 2.75L to spare over HMS Seahorse, a horse that finished 15L behind Vauban previously.
Ben Siegel represents the Noel Meade yard. He made a taking debut over hurdles in November, beating Prairie Dancer easily at Punchestown (16f gd/yld). Meade and his owners won’t be too happy with the watering that is going on at Leopardstown. It’s already yielding there, more rain is forecast yet they continue to water the track. Ben Siegel wants good ground and he could go the Jeff Kidder route if he finishes down the field today.
Vadaly Gets The Vote
One that could be interesting is Vadaly for Mullins and Blackmore. This once raced daughter of Vadamos will race in the familiar Honeysuckle silks and she won her sole start in France. James Reveley was on board and she probably won with a bit more in hand than it looked. She shuffled over the second last hurdle but Reveley always looked confident in the home straight. Once he gave her a tap she quickened clear in the last 50 yards.
The 4th home in that race won on his next outing so there is at least some substance to the form. Obviously, it is hard to weigh up but the fact that she starts off for Mullins in a race like this suggests she must be showing him something at home. The top two are going to be hard to beat but there is place money up for grabs in 3rd and hopefully Vadaly can nick it at odds of 22/1.
2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Vadaly e/w @ 22/1
2.10 – Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
There’ll be festival clues aplenty in this Grade 1 chase for the Novices. The top four in the betting for the Irish Arkle are all single figures for the Cheltenham version in March. The Willie Mullins trained Blue Lord is the favourite for both races.
He is 13/8 for this heat so his ante-post Cheltenham backers will be watching on nervously. An ordinary hurdler, he has looked a different animal over fences. He is 2/2 so far and his 20L win at Naas last time was impressive visually. This is a markedly tougher task though and we’ll know how good he actually is after today.
Strong Case
Riviere D’etel is the second favourite at 11/4. You could make a strong case for her to be favourite as she has the best form in the race. Gordon Elliott’s daughter of Martaline has already won at G3 and G2 level and she ran a blinder in a C&D G1 on St Stephen’s Day. If I was having a bet, it would most likely be on her. She gets a very handy 9lbs from the jolly and that could make the difference.
Haut En Couleurs and Saint Sam are the other two that the bookies think have claims. Both trained by Mullins, they were winners on their last start in ordinary contests. Haut had the better form over hurdles and he probably has more scope for improvement than Saint Sam. However, they both have it to prove in their first G1 over fences. With just six runners, I am happy to leave this race alone. No bet.
2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.45 – Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)
When I started studying this race on Thursday I saw Enjoy D’Allen was in off 116 and he was 25/1. Unfortunately, I wasn’t the only one to spot such an erroneous price though and he has been hammered into 11/1. He is a quality chaser and this looks a good bit of placing by Ciaran Murphy. However, he is rated 116 over hurdles and 145 over fences for a reason.
He is simply much better over the bigger obstacles. No doubt he has the ability to win this but I think his main aim will be one of the big festival handicap chases, possibly the Ultima at Cheltenham. If he was still 25s, he’d be worth backing e/w but now, not so much.
Well Handicapped?
One that could be well handicapped of a mark of 142 here is Cobbler’s Way. This horse was hugely promising in the 2019/20 season. He ran poor old Latest Exhibition to within a length in a 22f Grade 1 here. He also won his maiden at Leopardstown so he clearly likes the track. The son of Oscar was sent off at just 14/1 in the 2020 Albert Bartlett but he went wrong and was pulled up.
His first run back came at the New Year’s Meeting at Punchestown on bad ground. He ran alright to a point in that race but he blew up after the second last and Blackmore let him come home in his own time. He should come on leaps and bounds for that run and he’ll be far more at home on the yielding surface at Leopardstown. Cobbler’s Way acts on this track, he is effectively racing off 137 with Mike O’Connor’s claim and if he repeats the form of his run at this meeting two years ago, he’ll go close at odds of 33/1.
2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Cobbler’s Way e/w @ 33/1 NB (7 Places)
3.15 – Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
Eight will go to post in the Irish Gold Cup but I don’t think it’s a great renewal. The fact that a horse that jumps as erratically as Asterion Forlonge is 9/2 just about sums it up. How anyone could back him at those odds is beyond me. The grey has obviously got an engine, he just rarely puts in a clear round of jumping. He gets away with it in lesser races but at the highest level, not so much.
Kemboy is the 3/1 favourite and he ran well last time out. He won this race last season and he doesn’t handle Cheltenham so you can be sure he’ll be trying for his life. Paul Townend will look to set the tempo out in front and when this horse gets into a rhythm around Leopardstown, he can be hard to peg back.
However, he won’t have it all his own way with Frodon in the field. He will be keen to be in the box seat too and Bryony Frost only knows one way to ride this front running son of Nickname. He didn’t get home in the King George last time out. Minella Indo tried to take him on early and they went a suicidal pace. The worry for Frodon’s supporters is that Kemboy might force him into a similar scenario and if that happens, it is hard to see either of them getting home.
Patience Key On Indo
Last time out at Kempton Minella Indo was given a shocker by Rachael Blackmore. Maybe she was riding to instructions by taking on Frodon for the lead but whether she was doing as she was told or whether she went on a solo run, the end result was a disaster. Minella Indo does like to be forward in his races but he is more than happy to sit in behind the leader and I’m not sure why they felt the need to be so aggressive at Kempton.
Maybe they felt that it would bring stamina into play on a flat track but the early fractions were mental and he eventually pulled up. Robbie Power will hopefully be patient and sit in behind Kemboy and Frodon early on. If he does that, the race could set up perfectly for last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner. Of those at the head of the market, Minella Indo just about makes the most appeal.
Fast Pace To Suit Delta
At bigger odds, Delta Work cannot be discounted. Yes, the 9yo son of Network probably hasn’t progressed as much as connections hoped but he likes it at Leopardstown and he is better than he showed here over the Xmas. He actually shaped pretty well on his return at Down Royal when finishing 5L behind Frodon and a length behind Minella Indo.
I think a very strongly run race will suit this horse and that is almost guaranteed. He finished 3rd in this race last season and if he is going to get back to winning ways, Leopardstown is most likely where it’ll happen for him. None of the top four in the betting look bulletproof so at odds of 12/1, a small e/w bet on Delta Work is recommended.
2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Delta Work e/w @ 12/1
3.50 – Handicap Chase (Grade B)
Few jockeys are riding better than Sam Ewing at the minute and at odds of 33/1, hopefully he can get a good tune out of Stansfield. Paul Traynor’s son of Thousand Words was running well for Ewing on his penultimate start at Naas but he just got a bit short of room at the third last and fell. That was his second fall in two runs so Traynor decided to give him a spin over hurdles last time out, presumably to get a clear round in and boost the horse’s confidence.
Stansfield’s only win came in a Novice Chase at Down Royal on heavy (16f). However, some of his best runs have some on yielding so conditions will be fine for him today. He is in off a mark of 119 today and it is hard to know whether he is well handicapped. The best race he has ever run in was at Gowran back in November off 120 and the fact he was sent off at just 9/1 suggests that connections feel he is capable off that rating.
Previously at Fairyhouse he ran well to finish 2nd in a Novice Chase behind Stand Off (16f yld). He had the 119 rated Cerberus and 122 rated Brawler well behind so on that form, he looks potentially well treated. When he was beat 33L at Navan behind Conflated the 20f trip was too far and I think today’s distance will be more up his street. He isn’t one for maximum stakes given his jumping issues but if he puts it all together, he could outrun his odds of 40/1.
2022 Leopardstown DRF Saturday Tips: Stansfield e/w @ 40/1
4.25 – Future Stars Bumper (Grade 2)
I rarely say this about a bumper but this could be the race of the day. Just seven will go to post and they all won last time out. The impeccably bred Facile Vega heads the market for the Mullins clan. He dotted up here on debut on St Stephen’s Day and the runner up has won since. By Walk in The Park and out of Quevega, it would be no surprise if he turned out to be a superstar but there isn’t much value in his price of 10/11, especially as she is up against some other horses with massive potential.
Itswhatunitesus is next best in the betting. He won a Navan bumper in decent style two months ago on yielding. That race has thrown up just one winner though and while it was a visually impressive performance, the form doesn’t look overly strong. The same sentiment applies to Sandor Clegane. Barry O’Neill is Paul Nolan’s bumper jockey so he had to get off The Big Doyen to ride him. The Nolan horse won a bumper by 15L at Punchestown on debut but again, the form looks ordinary.
Go Big
O’Neill’s loss may well be Derek O’Connor’s gain. He takes over on The Big Doyen and I think this horse is overpriced at 13/2. He is a big, scopey sort and he won his first two starts even though he was still learning on the job. On debut he got the better of Ballyglass despite showing plenty of greenness. O’Neill just had to push him out and he won cosily by 1.5L. The runner up hacked up in a Southwell bumper by 5L next time out.
Last time out at Punchestown he showed he had learned plenty from that experience. He absolutely destroyed the field and again, O’Neill just had to push him out. There is surely more to come from Peter Fahey’s charge and he is a hugely exciting prospect. I think he should be a lot shorter than his current odds and at 13/2, The Big Doyen is well worth a punt.
