Warwick and Newbury Saturday Racing Tips – DS
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips
Things improved for us on Sunday at Leopardstown. Banntown Girl did well to keep on for 3rd, advised 14/1. Master McShee (11/1) lost no caste in defeat when chasing home Galopin Des Champs. Gallant John Joe (10/1) was squeezed for room at the worst possible moment but he fought back well for a place. Colonel Mustard (20/1) ran a massive race on ground plenty soft for him and he too was placed. In From The Cold travelled too wide but heis not one to write off yet. We are back in the UK this weekend, Warwick and Newbury Saturday tips are below.
1.15 Newbury – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Bravemansgame is a 7/2 shot for the Brown Advisory at the Festival and he has his final tune-up for that race here. Paul Nicholls’ son of Brave Mansonnien has taken to chasing like a duck to water. He won a weak Grade 1 hurdle at this track in 2020 but his chase form has gone to another level. He is 3/3 over the bigger obstacles and his G1 win at Kempton last time was extremely impressive. The 7yo slammed the highly regarded Ahoy Senor by 7.5L and if he repeats that today, he wins.
He does have to give over a stone to his rivals but he should be capable of doing just that. Grumpy Charley and Pat’s Fancy are both around 5/1 and while they are likeable types, they are not in the same league as the favourite. The one that might represent a bit of e/w value at double figure odds is the Ben Case trained Fern Hill.
This 7yo son of Dylan Thomas has finished 2nd on both starts this year. On his return he was narrowly defeated by a neck at Uttoxeter off 137. Then, off 136 last time out he was 3.75L behind Grumpey Charley at this track over 22.5f. He is now 6lbs better off with that rival and that swing in the weights could be enough to help him turn the form around. I think the extra furlong here should suit him too and at odds of 12/1, Fern Hill can hopefully nick second.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: Fern Hill e/w @ 12/1
1.35 Warwick – Mares’ Hurdle (Listed)
Just four runners in this Listed heat. Indefatigable is a mare I have huge time for and she is classy on her day. She isn’t afraid to scrap if required and she hacked up in this race in 2020. Already a Grade 2 winner, she has to give weight to her rivals but she should be up to the task.
Marie’s Rock is the most likely danger on the figures. She is rated 7lbs lower than the fav but she gets 6lbs off her so on paper, she should be bang there. However, she pulled up last time and consistency isn’t her strong suit. The other two have heaps to find so this is a race I am more than happy to give a wide berth to. Indefatigable should win but at 4/5 she’s not a bet for me.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
1.50 Newbury – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The one I like at a half decent price in this handicap chase is Sussex Ranger for the Moores. This 8yo son of Hat Trick likes it at Newbury. He was a novice handicap chase winner here last season off 126 (23.5f gd), winning by 11L. He was handed a big rise in the weights for that win and he has struggled off his revised rating. However, he ran a nice enough race on soft ground at Ascot last time when 4th and he reverts to hurdles off a mark of just 121.
He has won three of his ten starts over timber. It’s been a while since his last victory which came off 130 at Fontwell back in 2019. That was on soft ground over 17f but over today’s type of trip he is more effective on nicer ground. Three of his four NH wins have come on ground with good in the description and this will be the first time he gets his preferred conditions this term.
Gary Moore has his horses in fine fettle, sending out four winners in the past fortnight. He even managed to get Goshen to win again, a feat that would boost anyone’s confidence. His son Jamie rides and he has been on board for all of this fella’s previous victories. Sussex Ranger is well handicapped, proven at the track and he’ll enjoy the ground. At odds of 14/1, he is the each way selection.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: Sussex Ranger e/w @ 14/1 NB
2.05 Warwick – Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Only the four will line up behind the tape for this Grade 2 but it is an intriguing little race. I was very impressed with Edwardstone last time out at Kempton. He beat a decent yardstick in Do Your Job by 10L and it was probably on a par with the form of his 16L G1 win on his previous start at Sandown. He was a talented hurdler but chasing has been the making of him. A 3/1 shot for the Arkle in March, it’ll be interesting to see how he handles what will probably be his toughest chasing assignment to date.
Third Time Lucki is rated 4lbs inferior to the market leader. He is only 13/2 for the Arkle and he too has been transformed by the switch to chasing. He has won three from four so far and he destroyed Do Your Job by 30L last time. For Pleasure was upsides at the final obstacle when falling but it always looked like the Skelton horse had his measure. At Sandown this son of Arcadio was 16L behind Edwardstone but he tried to make it that day and with For Pleasure in the field again, he won’t have to do that this time.
Brave Adds Further Intrigue
Brave Seasca is rated 145, 8lbs inferior to Third Time Lucki. He gets 5lbs from him (and Edwardstone) and he is a very progressive sort. Last time at this track he landed his third consecutive handicap, beating Sky Pirate by 7L off 137. He has won on good to soft but he does seem to be more effective on proper soft ground. He too is entered in the Arkle (16/1) but Venetia Williams’ nominated the Grand Annual as his most likely target after his last win so will he want to win this and ruin his mark? If he does win, he won’t be running in many more handicaps.
For Pleasure is a horse I really like. He only knows one way to go and that is fast and from the front. He was in the process of running his best ever race over fences when tipping up at the final fence last time. However, he probably still wouldn’t have beaten Third Time Lucki if he stood up and while I’d love to see him hang on for victory here, he’ll most likely set it up for the others. This is a surprisingly good race and while I won’t be having a bet, I’ll be watching very closely with a view to March. No bet.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.25 Newbury – Denman Chase (Grade 2)
Another small but stacked field in this 23.5f Grade 2 Chase. On paper, this looks a straight match between Clan Des Obeaux and Royale Pagaille. The former will be having just his second run of the season. He made his reappearance in the King George where he found just Tornado Flyer too good. Asterion Forlonge would have finished ahead of him too, if he didn’t fall. It was a decent run but it was probably a good 10/12lbs below what he is capable of producing at his best. It took him a couple of runs before he hit top form last season, will it be a similar story this year?
Royal Pagaille is rated 6lbs lower than Clan. He is a horse that has to have soft ground on what we have seen so far. It can’t be a coincidence that his two runs on ground with good in the description resulted in defeat by a combined distance of 71 lengths. He is 2/2 on soft and 2/4 on heavy in the UK so on the forecast ground, he could be set to struggle. Venetia Williams’ charge is 25s for the Gold Cup in March but that looks fanciful unless there is a monsoon before the race.
Best Of The Rest
Imperial Aura is a quality operator on his day. The problem is that those days are becoming as rare as hen’s teeth. He hasn’t completed a race, let alone won one, since November 2020 and form figures of UPFP do not inspire confidence. How could you back a horse with his profile at odds of just 7/1? If he rediscovers his mojo, then he would have a chance but at those odds he makes absolutely zero appeal.
De Rasher Counter is entitled to need this so perhaps Eldorado Allen can deliver the goods. He has been running with real credit this season. He landed the Haldon Gold Cup on his seasonal bow, beating the talented Hitman by 1L off levels. The 2021 Arkle runner up should be suited by the step up in distance and he’ll relish this nice ground. Given the question marks surrounding some of his rivals, Eldorado Allen is worth backing e/w.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: Eldorado Allen e/w @ 12/1
3.00 Newbury – Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2)
Just the four will go to post after Editeur Du Gite was pulled on Thursday. It is a tight contest but I think that Hitman can win. Paul Nicholls’ son of Falco drops in class after a super effort in the Tingle Creek at Sandown. A mistake at the 2nd last cost him a few lengths in that race and while he may not have beaten Greaneteen if he pinged it, he would definitely have got to within a length or two.
Greaneteen has since run poorly at Leopardstown but he hated the ground in Ireland. I think Hitman’s form is rock solid overall. He was only beat a length by Arkle runner up Eldorado Allen at Exeter in November, he was beat just 4L (over 20f) by Gold Cup bound Protektorat at Aintree and prior to that he finished just 2.5L behind Allmankind.
Sceau Royal has been made the favourite as he reverts from hurdling. The 10yo is an admirable sort but I think he’s vulnerable here. Funambule Sivola has some eye-catching pieces of form too, including a 3.25L 2nd to Shishkin. He could prove to be the biggest threat to Hitman but at 9/4, the Nicholls horse is preferred.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: Hitman win @ 9/4
3.15 Warwick – Warwick Castle Handicap Chase (Class 2)
When I first studied this race after decs on Thursday, Lieutenant Rocco was 25/1. He is thrown in off 140 on his novice form but we backed him last time at Lingfield (22f hvy) when it looked like conditions were perfect and he pulled up. This nicer ground should suit him a lot better and he will be fitter with that spin at Lingfield under his belt.
Tom Scudamore rides for Harriet Brown and she has had a few run well in the last couple of weeks. Scudamore has a winner and three places from just nine rides for Brown and Lieutenant Rocco now returns to the scene of his easy novice hurdle win in February 2020. That, like his other two wins, came on heavy ground.
However, he showed he could run to a high level on good to soft when chasing home Messire Des Obeaux and Protektorat in the Dipper at Wincanton in January 2021. He ran to at least 150 in that contest so off a mark of 140, he ought to be competitive today. Obviously, I’d have been happier if he was 25/1 but 12/1 is still alright and at those odds, he is worth backing e/w.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tips: Lieutenant Rocco e/w @ 12/1 (4 places)
3.35 Newbury – Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3)
Last, but not least, we have the Betfair Hurdle. It should be lovely, good to soft ground and with extra places on offer, I am taking a chance on Glory And Fortune e/w. Tom Lacey’s charge ran the race of his life last time out at Kempton. He kept on really well in the G1 Christmas Hurdle, finishing just 2L behind Epatante despite making a mistake at the second last. He had Soaring Glory a neck behind him that day and he is 4lbs better off with him here.
This fella’s handicap form on decent ground is good too. He racked up successive wins at Plumpton and Ffos Las (form franked) before running very well in a similar race to this at Cheltenham off 142 when again, a late mistake probably cost him a couple of places. Tom Lacey’s charge didn’t stay the 20f trip on his penultimate outing at Newbury but he showed last time that 16f is his optimum trip.
Tom Lacey’s horses are in good form at the minute and Stan Sheppard knows this lad inside out. He has had a nice little break after that Christmas run and the son of Fame And Glory usually goes well when he’s fresh. At the opposite end of the weights, Royame Uni is one to keep an eye on but at 20/1, Glory And Fortune is the e/w NAP of the day.
