2022 Champion Chase: The Stats That Matter – DS
2022 Champion Chase: The Stats That Matter
We have already whittled down the fields of the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle using statistics. Now, it is time for the 2022 Champion Chase. Wednesday’s feature is one of the most spectacular races of the week and there are some seriously talented horses lining up in it this year. Are the stats in Shishkin’s favour? Will there be anything at a price that makes the final cut? We found the winner in 2021, let’s hope we can repeat the trick.
Age
At the time of writing, eighteen horses remained in the running for the Champion Chase. As usual, we will first use age to narrow the field. Only one 5yo and three 6yos have ever won the Champion Chase and Master Minded was responsible for half of those wins. There has been a couple of 10yo winners in the past decade and good old Moscow Flyer won as an 11yo in 2005 but the vast majority of winners have been aged between 7yo and 9yo. This stat enables us to eliminate seven horses, including the 11yo Politologue, 10yos First Flow and Chacun Pour Soi and the 6yos Hitman and Allmankind.
Cut: Hitman; Allmankind; Politologue; Sceau Royal; Hardline; First Flow; Chacun Pour Soi.
Course Form
Hurdlers can get away without having a previous run at Cheltenham but over the bigger obstacles, it is vital. The last horse to defy this stat was Master Minded in 2008 and Newmill also managed it in 2006 but more often than not, previous course experience is a huge plus. It is even better if a horse has run well at the track in the past so only horses that have won or placed at Cheltenham make it through to the next stage. This means we lose Irish trained outsiders Battleoverdoyen and Dunvegan. Captain Guinness also gets the chop, as does Funambule Sivola. The highest profile victim at this point is Energumene. He has zero course experience so the 3/1 shot is counted out.
Cut: Battleoverdoyen; Dunvegan; Captain Guinness; Funambule Sivola; Energumene.
Recent Winning Form
We are now left with six remaining contenders and the final stat we’ll use to cut the field is recent winning form. As Politologue and Put The Kettle on showed in the last two renewals, it is more than possible to bounce back from an unplaced prep run for the Champion Chase. However, it is a big plus if a horse has won at least once during the season before the big race and 18 of the last 20 winners fulfilled this requirement. That’s bad news for Put The Kettle on as she has been well beaten on both her runs this term.
Cut: Put The Kettle On.
2022 Champion Chase: The Final Five
And then there were five. Shishkin has cleared every obstacle so far and if he does the same in March, he should win. Energumene gave him a good race at Sandown but his lack of course form means that Nicky Henderson’s stable star is in pole position to add another Grade 1 at Cheltenham to his already glittering CV.
Nube Negra and Greaneteen also make it to the final stage. Greaneteen blotted his copybook at Leopardstown last time out and he was beat 10L by Shishkin at Kempton previously. The form of his G1 win at Sandown took a knock at the weekend and with Paul Nicholls’ horses struggling for form, he could struggle to hit the frame.
Nube Negra makes more appeal, despite his poor effort behind Greaneteen at Sandown. Last year’s runner up has been campaigned with this repeat bid in mind and his absence of 102 days is a positive given his superb record when fresh (Form figures after an absence of 100+ days: 18111). He’ll be trained to the minute by the Skeltons to peak for this race and he could be the one to chase Shishkin home.
Envoi The Enigma
The other two remaining horses are Editeur De Gite and 2020 Ballymore winner Envoi Allen. The latter horse has become a bit of an enigma. He was a winning machine up until last year’s festival but then he moved yards and fell in the 20f G1 Novice Chase. He was then pulled up at Punchestown before landing a bloodless victory in a G2 on his return at Down Royal. A disappointing run in the John Durkan followed before he got back to winning ways over 17f in a bad G1 at Leopardstown in December. I’m not sure he’ll even run in this race (entered in Ryanair too) so he is discounted.
Editeur Interesting
At huge odds, perhaps Editeur De Gite can go well. His bloods were wrong last weekend so he missed the Game Spirit. Gary Moore says he’ll be ready for the Champion Chase though, a race he won a few years back with Sire De Grugy. Editeur Du Gite has a very different profile compared to his remaining rivals. He has no G1 pedigree over hurdles or fences and just a year ago he was rated only 125. However, something clicked with him when he won at Newbury in March and since then, he has won all of his completed starts.
He did unseat on soft ground at Ascot when he was beaten but on decent ground, he has won his last four in a row. His last two wins came at Cheltenham off marks of 140 and 147. He beat Stolen Silver a neck in November but he was even better when winning by 4L a month later. Chances are that he will get good ground at the Festival and if he does, he could sneak into third. Shishkin is by far the most likely winner though and hopefully, he shows his best.
