Haydock and Ascot Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Haydock and Ascot Saturday Preview
After a fairly dry January we finally struck gold with a couple of nice winners last weekend. I feared the worst after Sussex Ranger ran an absolute stinker, despite halving in price. Eldorado Allen made amends for us though, winning easily enough advised e/w at 12/1. Hitman wasn’t himself and he is better than he showed in that race. Lieutenant Rocco also ran disappointingly and he looks a shadow of the horse he was last season. Our 20/1 e/w NAP Glory And Fortune ensured we finished on a high, landing the Betfair Hurdle by a narrow margin. We are back in action tomorrow and hopefully our run continues. Check out our Haydock and Ascot Saturday preview below.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Does He Know heads the market here for Bailey and Bass. He is the 11/4 favourite and on his form, he deserves to be. He has already beaten Threeunderthrufive this season at Chepstow. Then he finished only 4L behind him last time out at Cheltenham. Sandwiched between those runs was a 12L win in a Novice Chase at Cheltenham. However, all three of those wins came on good ground and his record on soft is not quite as impressive. On the forecast ground, he is worth taking on.
The two I like in this are Doyen Breed and Fern Hill. Sandy Thomson’s Doyen Breed landed place money for us last time when chasing home Threeunderthrufive at Warwick (24f sft). On that form he has nothing to find with the Bailey horse and he is a solid, hardy chaser who nearly always gives his running. He won’t mind this ground and in receipt of weight from the fav, I think he’ll go close.
I put Fern Hill up last weekend but he was a non-runner in the race won by Bravemansgame. A rating of 136 does leave him with a fair bit to find but he is a progressive sort and I am of the opinion that this trip could elicit a bit more improvement. The top three in the betting would all probably prefer good ground so I am going to chance a reverse forecast on Doyen Breed and Fern Hill.
Haydock and Ascot Saturday Tip: Doyen Breed/Fern Hill reverse forecast
2.05 Haydock – Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2)
A couple of potential Stayers’ Hurdle contenders will be staking their claims in this 24.5f G2. The ground is heavy at Haydock so this is going to be a war of attrition. Molly Ollys Wishes is the market leader and she landed a mares’ G2 last time out at Ascot, beating off Irish raider My Sister Sarah. She gets a 7lb sex allowance and that will come in very handy on this extremely taxing ground. Dan Skelton’s mare is a former heavy ground winner over 21f and if her stamina holds out, she could be tough to beat.
On paper, with a rating of 155 Thomas Darby should beat the fav. However, Beneficial’s progeny often prefer a sounder surface and while Olly Murphy’s charge has won on heavy ground, his best form by a distance has come on nicer ground. Top Ville Ben and Emitom filled the first two places on heavy at Lingfield last time out. They have both reverted to hurdles from chasing and they should both run well again. Wholestone will love the conditions but he hasn’t been seen for a year and a half. You’d imagine he’ll improve for the run. I don’t fancy anything strongly enough here to warrant a bet so I’ll sit it out. No bet.
Haydock and Ascot Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.25 Ascot – Swinley Handicap Chase (Listed)
Ten are due to go to post for this 24f Listed handicap chase and Fiddlerontheroof is the favourite. Colin Tizzard’s son of Stowaway has run big on both his starts this season. He landed a Listed chase at Carlisle on his return (20f sft) and then he found just Cloudy Glen too good last time out at Newbury (26f gd/sft). Tizzard’s inmate hasn’t been sighted since that Newbury run in November. While he goes well fresh, I doubt connections will want him to have another hard race today considering that Cheltenham is only a matter of weeks away. At the prices, I’d rather look elsewhere.
At odds of 11/1 perhaps Larry could go well for in form Gary Moore. This horse likes it at Ascot. He ran a nice race to finish 3rd over an inadequate trip last time (21f sft). Back in October he landed the valuable London Gold Cup Handicap, winning it easily by 6.5L off a mark of 132. In between those two Ascot runs he tackled a 29f trip at Sandown and his stamina ran out.
The handicapper has given him a real chance, dropping him from 138 back down to 135. Niall Houlihan is a very talented pilot and his 3lb claim means that Larry is effectively running off the same mark he won of back in October. He is unlikely to be heading to Cheltenham so hopefully he will be trying for his life today. At odds of 11/1, Larry is the e/w pick.
Haydock and Ascot Saturday Tip: Larry e/w @ 11/1
2.40 Haydock – Grand National Trial (Grade 3)
28f on heavy ground at Haydock is going to be an extreme test of stamina. Last year’s winner Lord Du Mesnil is back to try to defend his crown. He won it off 149 with Paul O’Brien claiming 3lbs so he is effectively 4lb higher today off 150. His only decent run since came at Wetherby in December when he was beat just 1.75L in the Rowland Meyrick (24f sft). He ran below average when last seen at this track last month (25.5f sft) but I’d expect to see better from him today. He loves this track, he is a dual C&D winner and he has strong place claims.
However, off a much lighter weight I think Mint Condition could be the one to be on. The Champion jockey takes the ride on Jenny Candlish’s son of Black Sam Bellamy and he will absolutely relish this ground. His two best runs this season came at Haydock, both on heavy. In early December he was beat a neck by Kiltealy Briggs in a novice (21.5f hvy) and then he landed a novice handicap chase (22f hvy) off 136 four weeks later. This horse has a record of 122144 on heavy so the ground isn’t a worry, the only question is whether he’ll get this trip.
I wouldn’t judge him too harshly on his first try at 3 miles last time at Warwick. It was a hot little race and he should be better suited by today’s test. His dam stayed 3 miles and Black Sam Bellamy has produced plenty of strong stayers down through the years. He shaped as though he’d stay further when winning over 22f here two runs back and at odds of 11/1, Mint Condition is the e/w selection.
Haydock and Ascot Saturday Tip: Mint Condition e/w @ 11/1 nb (4 Places)
3.00 Ascot – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The biggest field of the day (14) will fight it out in this class 2 handicap hurdle. I was considering putting up Small Bad Bob but all his best form is on sharp, left handed tracks. The one I’ve landed on instead is the Sheila Lewis trained Straw Fan Jack. This likeable grey went agonisingly close on his seasonal comeback at Cheltenham (16.5f gd) of 132. He wasn’t as good the next twice but perhaps those two runs came too soon after his fine run on his reappearance.
The upside to those two runs is that he is now 1lb lower than when beat a head at Cheltenham. He’s had a nice little break to freshen him up and Sean Houlihan is back in the saddle. Soft ground suits this son of Geordieland well and he was beaten by a head in a Novice over today’s C&D by Fifty Ball in October 2020.
He was beat a length in the Betfair hurdle last season off 131 and Straw Fan Jack was giving him 11lbs so even on that form, this horse looks potentially well treated. I’d imagine connections will be eyeing up a crack at the County in March but he’d need to win this to get a run there. All things considered, 20/1 looks a big price about this fella and at those odds, he is definitely an each way bet.
Haydock and Ascot Saturday Tip: Straw Fan Jack e/w @ 20/1 NAP
3.20 Wincanton – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2)
A four runner race and one I have no interest in from a betting perspective. Goshen is odds on but even though he won easy last time, can he be trusted? Adagio is a much more solid proposition and I think he is the most likely winner. Faivoir and Llandinabo Lad look to be punching above their weight. With just four runners and no each way betting, this is a race to just watch. No bet.
Haydock and Ascot Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.38 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1)
Dashel Drasher is one of my favourite horses in training. This is his home ground and he is going to be the one they have to beat. Jeremy Scott’s gutsy front runner always gives his running and whatever beats him today will know they have been in a race. Fakir D’oudairies is a talented horse and he landed a weak G1 at Aintree last season. This term he has come up short in both his G1 starts, his sole win coming in an average G2 at Clonmel (20f sft). He is the top rated in the race but this is no penalty kick and he could be worth taking on.
Saint Calvados was last sighted finishing a decent 3rd in the King George. He is a very talented and frustrating horse who should have won more than he has during his career. He got to within a neck of Min over 20.5f at Cheltenham in 2020, his last run at this sort of distance. If he repeats that, he’ll win. However, his best form has come when he has been fresh and I’m not sure a 55 day break is long enough since his last run.
Fanion Has It To Prove
Venetia Williams is having an excellent season and she relies on Fanion D’Estruval. He was 2nd in a C&D handicap last time out off 159. His best form has come in handicaps and he has come up short in all his previous tries in Graded company. He is only a 7yo so he could yet step up but he needs to prove he belongs at the top table and 5/1 looks skinny enough. Mister Fisher’s win at Kempton was boosted last weekend by Eldorado Allen. Consistency is not his strong suit though and he is no banker to back that run up.
Lostintranslation would probably prefer better ground. However, he is a previous C&D winner so he can’t be fully discounted. I am a big fan of Waiting Patiently but not even I could make a case for him on what he has shown since moving to Christian Williams. If the Welsh handler has sweetened him up and he is at his best, he could win this doing handstands. However, he has looked disinterested the last twice and his best days could be behind him.
Two For Gold beat Dashel Drasher by a short head last time at Lingfield. He was getting 6lbs from the runner up and off levels (and at Ascot) you’d fancy the Scott horse to turn that form around. I can’t bring myself to abandon Dashel Drasher. He was beat on his last C&D run but the ground was too quick. On soft/heavy/good to soft his form figures at Ascot read 1111 and hopefully he can add another 1 to that sequence today. At odds of 13/2, Dashel Drasher is the e/w pick.
