2022 Stayers’ Hurdle: The Stats That Matter – DS
2022 Stayers’ Hurdle: The Stats That Matter
We found two of the first three home in the 2021 renewal, will the stats matter in the 2022 Stayers’ Hurdle? This looks a really open contest with ante-post market leaders fluffing their lines in their prep runs and some old favourites roaring back into the picture. Who do the stats say will win? Find out below.
Age
Again, we’ll start with the old reliable, age. The Stayers’ Hurdle has usually been won by relatively young horses. Yes, Big Buck’s and Solwhit both scored at the age of nine in successive seasons but the overwhelming majority of winners in recent years have been aged between 6yo and 8yo. Interestingly, only one horse older than 9yo has won since 1972, Crimson Embers in 1986. So, which of the remaining entries get ruled out here?
It breaks my heart, but 10yo Paisley Park is a first hurdle casualty. It’s bad news for JP McManus too as last year’s runner up Sire Du Berlais is also discounted, as is 5/1 shot Champ. Melon is another old favourite that is counted out at this stage. Others to fall by the wayside include the 2020 winner Lisnagar Oscar, Darver Star and Koshari. A pretty dramatic start, but the stats take no prisoners.
Cut: Sire Du Berlais; Paisley Park; Champ; Melon; Koshari; Garo De Juilley; Darver Star; Cilaos Emery; Thomas Darby; Lisnagar Oscar; Indefatigable.
Winning Hurdle Form
Since 2002, all but two of the winners of this race had four previous hurdle wins under their belt. The two horses that defied that stat were 50/1 shock winner Lisnagar Oscar and Cole Harden in 2015. Neither horse has won a race since their day in the sun. Using this stat, we can separate more wheat from the chaff.
Long shots Home By The Lee, Gentlemansgame and Alaphillippe have only won one hurdle race apiece so they fall victim to this statistic. At slightly shorter odds, the Willie Mullins trained pair Burning Victory and Asterion Forlonge don’t tick this box either. Another six fall by the wayside at this stage, next we’ll use winning form to narrow the field further.
Cut: Home By The Lee; Gentlemansgame; Alaphilippe; Grand Roi; Burning Victory; Asterion Forlonge.
Recent Winning Form
We are getting down to serious business now with just nine horses still standing. This final stat is a pretty definitive one. Since 2000, only three of the 20 winners have managed to score in the Stayers’ Hurdle without having had a win during that season. Perennial statbuster Lisnagar Oscar is one, Penhill is another and before those two, Iris’s Gift was the last horse to beat those odds in 2004.
If this stat proves to be right, it means that last year’s winner Flooring Porter is out of the reckoning. It is also bad news for 5/1 shot Thyme Hill and also for the Tom Symonds’ trained Song For Someone. Third Wind also fails to make the final cut, leaving us with five potential winners.
Cut: Flooring Porter; Thyme Hill; Song For Someone; Third Wind.
2022 Stayers’ Hurdle: The Final Five
With a host of big guns knocked out, could there be a boilover in the 2022 Stayers’ Hurdle? I’m not so sure. I think Klassical Dream can be forgiven his dismal effort at Gowran last time and he knows what it takes to win at this festival. Proper spring ground will suit him better than the conditions at Gowran and he looks the most likely winner of those remaining.
Royal Kahala is a 14/1 shot and she won that Gowran race in which Klassical Dream flopped. Peter Fahey’s daughter of Flemensfirth ran poorly at this track when well beaten in the Mares’ Grade 2 last season and if you look at her overall form, she shouldn’t be good enough to win this. Her price is probably a bit of an overreaction to her last outing but she is admittedly unexposed at 24f and if she improves again she could go well.
Sporting John is 12/1 after he won a Pertemps Qualifier last time out. The 7yo has long been thought of as a potential winner of this race and after losing his way over fences, he has rediscovered his mojo over the smaller obstacles. He has come home in front in two of his three starts this season and if JP is a stats man, he should be letting him take his chance in this.
Commander A Dark Horse
Molly Ollys Wishes is a grand mare but she has swerved both her previous entries at Cheltenham on account of the ground (good and soft). That suggests to me that the Skeltons don’t think this track will suit her and if she does run at the festival, the Mares’ Hurdle is a more likely target. That leaves us with 66/1 shot Commander Of Fleet.
He has been shocking on his last couple of starts since a superb win at Navan. He is an all or nothing type character and recent runs have seen him produce the latter. I was sure connections would go down the Pertemps route but they seem to be persisting with him in Graded company. This fella has zero chance on his last two runs but in his defence, the ground was far too soft. His best efforts have come on a sounder surface and he has back class in the book.
In 2019 he won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown (22f gd/yld) before he found only Minella Indo too good by just 2L in the Albert Bartlett. A long spell on the sidelines followed but he demonstrated that he still has plenty of ability at Navan. On a line through the Jam Man this 8yo son of Fame And Glory hasn’t much to find with Sporting John and he could surprise with a big run at huge odds if he gets his ground and he is in the mood.
