Doncaster and Kelso Saturday Tips and Preview – DS
Doncaster and Kelso Saturday Racing Tips
The flat is back this weekend and the big race of the weekend is the Lincoln Handicap. Dave Stevos has already posted a selection for that race as part of a Spring Double, check out who he fancies by clicking here. The Brocklesby is another race worth watching and we also have some decent jumping action from up North too. Check out our Kempton, Doncaster and Kelso Saturday tips below.
1.15 Doncaster – Brocklesby Stakes (Class 4)
Chipotle won this race last season for Eve Johnson-Houghton and Charlie Bishop. The same connections are back to try and win it for the second year in succession. They are pinning their hopes on Blatant, a February colt by Brazen Beau. He is a first foal and his dam was unraced so he is hard to weigh up. Most of his dam’s relations were best as older horses and there is a scarcity of 2yo winners on his page. So, even though he is worthy of respect, I’m going to look elsewhere.
Well Bred Fav
Richard Hannon has the favourite, Persian Force, a full brother to 2yo winner Gubbass. He holds obvious claims on paper and there is a lot to like about his pedigree. However, I am going to take a chance on a filly at huge odds. She only has an ok page but she ticks a lot of boxes in terms of trainer course form and trainer/jockey strike rate.
Primrose Ridge is trained in Newmarket by Darryl Holland and Jason Watson takes the ride. This daughter of Aclaim is out of a mare whose dam was a 2yo winner. Holland is 1/2 at Doncaster with 2yos and Jason Watson has a tremendous record when riding for him. He has had ten rides for Holland, winning on five and finishing top 4 in another three. On his 2yos he is 2/6 with 2 top 4s. Without seeing these horses work, it is hard to know what to expect so keep stakes low. At odds of 40/1, Primrose Ridge is a speculative e/w selection.
Doncaster and Kelso Saturday Tips: Primrose Ridge e/w @ 40/1 (4 Places)
1.35 Kelso – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Sandy Thomson fired in a winner on Friday with Goodtimes Badtimes at Musselburgh. That horse is also entered in this but he is surely an unlikely participant after yesterday’s exertions. Thomson also runs a horse called Bak Rocky and he is the mount of no.1 stable jockey Ryan Mania. This son of Shirocco has been bitterly disappointing on his first two handicap starts. He showed that he had ability on his last start in Novice company behind Feivel at Hexham (20f hvy) when beat just 0.5L.
However, he was beat out of sight on his handicap debut at Carlisle in March before posting another poor effort last time at Newcastle. Thomson now applies the tongue tie, last worn when this horse was in the process of running a nice race on his final Irish run in Listowel. Cheekpieces are also applied for the first time. I am hoping that this combination of equipment sparks this horse back to life.
His dam was a pretty useful racemare and her peak performance came on good ground at 21f. Bak Rocky admittedly had those conditions last time at Newcastle and flopped. However, it is still early days for this 6yo and the handicapper has given him a chance by dropping him to 104. Sandy Thomson has a fine strike rate at Kelso and hopefully Bak Rocky can improve it at odds of 20/1.
Doncaster and Kelso Saturday Tips: Bak Rocky e/w @ 20/1 (4 Places b365)
1.50 Doncaster – Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed)
This 6f Listed sprint has only attracted a field of seven. Five of them lack a recent run so for those horses, fitness must be taken on trust. The three horses that are at the head of the market will all be returning from breaks. However, all three have run well when fresh in the past so you would expect them to be ready to rock and roll. Garrus is top rated (110) and Diligent Harry is next best (109). Ayr Gold Cup hero Bielsa is rated 105 so he has a bit to find at the figures.
The ground is currently described as good to soft at Donny and that is a worry for Garrus. The son of Acclamation likes quick conditions so he’ll be hoping it dries out. The exact same sentiment applies to Diligent Harry. Bielsa, on the other hand, doesn’t mind a bit of dig so he could possibly represent the best value of the more fancied horses.
Volatile Could Strike
Mondammej and Volatile Analyst will have race sharpness on their side. The former is better suited by good to firm on turf but Keith Dalgleish’s charge will relish the conditions. His 5yo son of Distorted Humour signed off his all weather winter campaign with a 7f win at Wolverhampton off 101. However, the run that makes him of interest here was his 5L 5th behind King’s Lynn in a Listed contest over C&D in November (6f sft).
That was an excellent effort and he had Bielsa 10 lengths behind him in 12th. Volatile Analyst couldn’t land a blow on his return from a 64 day break two weeks ago at Wolves. However, he ought to come on plenty for that and I would imagine it was a prep run for his return to the grass. This looks an ideal race for him and he is 2/4 on ground with soft in the description. At odds of 16/1, he can run a big race.
Doncaster and Kelso Saturday Tips: Volatile Analyst e/w @ 16/1 NAP (3 places Betfred)
2.05 Kempton – Magnolia Stakes (Listed)
Fancy Man is the 7/4 favourite for Hannon and Hansen and he is the one to beat. Rated 109, he ran a cracker behind the talented Alenquer in a G3 at Lingfield last time. He previously landed a Listed contest with consummate ease at the same track (10f). A repeat of either of those runs would probably suffice in this easier race.
One that could go well at a decent price is Al Zaraqaan for Archie Watson and Luke Morris. This son of Golden Horn has finished behind the fav the last twice. A front runner, he is in first time blinkers today and hopefully they help him to race more evenly. He faded badly late on in those two Lingfield heats but he has won over 11f at Kempton so he definitely stays the distance.
What makes him of interest is his course record. He is 2/2 at Kempton (both at 11f) and the second of those was a career best. Al Zaraqaan bolted up last March by 3L in a handicap off 95 for William Haggas and he had Soto Sizzler 8L behind when conceding 4lbs to him. He is 3lbs better off with Fancy Man than when he was when 2.75L behind him in the Winter Derby Trial and at odds of 14/1, he is worth chancing each way.
Kempton Saturday Tips: Al Zaraqaan e/w @ 14/1
2.25 Doncaster – Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2)
This year’s Spring Mile, the consolation for the Lincoln, has attracted a paltry field of just nine runners. Since the turn of the century there has never been less than sixteen runners in this race. Hopefully it isn’t a sign of things to come throughout the season. The most interesting one at shorter odds is Mostawaa. We were on him last year when he ran a cracker off 89 at York. He also ran a blinder in this race last season off 88.
The son of Poet’s Voice was only 0.75L behind the winner and he is back for a repeat bid off a 5lbs lower rating. Silvestre De Sousa is back on board for the first time since York too. However, if there is soft in the description (as there is right now) it would be off putting as Mostawaa is best on a firm surface. One horse that won’t mind a little bit of cut in the ground is Arthur’s Realm.
Slow Starter
This horse has only won one of his eleven career starts. He has his quirks but he has plenty of ability and it looks as though his bad habit of falling out of the stalls is a thing of the past. He hasn’t had any issues at the start for his last three runs so hopefully he doesn’t act the maggot today. If the son of Camelot does get away on level terms, he is capable of running big off 81.
He ran really well off 81 when beat 1.5L in a handicap at Newbury last season (10f gd/sft). His final start of the campaign wasn’t bad either (6th off 82 at Nottingham 8f sft). The winner of that race, Rogue Bear, was scoring off 79 and he followed up next time off 85. He has been backed into 16s for today’s feature so connections must think he is a nice horse.
Arthur’s Realm has had a prep run at Newcastle ahead of this return to the turf. The ground looks ideal for him and it is interesting that Dunlop has booked Rossa Ryan for the very first time for this horse. This track should suit and if he manages to put it all together, he could run a big race at odds of 14/1.
Doncaster and Kelso Saturday Tips: Arthur’s Realm e/w @ 14/1
2.40 Kempton – Queen’s Prize Handicap (Class 2)
Not a very easy race to weigh up. Justus might represent a bit of e/w value for Williams and Morris. This son of Galileo struggled behind Moliwood on his second start back after a break. Formerly trained in France, where he was a 15.5f winner on soft, he has 7.75L to find with the Botti horse on that run back in January. However, there is every chance that Justus may have needed it and he produced a much improved display over today’s C&D last time out off a reduced mark of 80.
Richard Kingscote held him up in midfield in that race and he was pretty keen. He still managed to see out his race well though and he finished just 1L behind the winner. This is admittedly a better contest than last time but I would fancy him to get a lot closer to Moliwood than he managed in January. He is 5lbs better off with that rival (and 4lbs better off with Imperium for 1.5L) and now that he is race fit, hopefully he can make that swing in the weights count. At odds of 11/1, Justus is the each way selection in a very tricky race.
Kempton Saturday Tips: Justus e/w @ 11/1 (4 Places Hills)
3.15 Kelso – Mares’ Novice Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Back down in trip and back on nice ground, Martha Willow looks overpriced in this race. Trained by Jedd O’Keefe, this daughter of Martaline is at her best on good ground. Both of her bumper wins came on nice ground at Sedgefield and Ludlow and she was simply outclassed in her final start in that sphere in a Listed contest at Cheltenham in November.
Martha Willow left that run well behind when switched to novice hurdles. She ran a grand race on her hurdling debut at Catterick on ground plenty soft for her. Her next run at Newcastle was better (16f gd/sft). She was beat just 2.5L into 3rd by Lady Adare (now rated 130) and Bella Bluesky was only a neck in front of her in 2nd (off levels). Rae Des Champs was another 0.5L back in 4th, also off level weights.
Those two re-oppose here and Martha Willow is 1lb better off with Bella Bluesky and 4lbs better off with Rae Des Champs. She did flop on her handicap debut last time at Sedgefield but 20f on soft was never going to suit this mare. Back on nice ground and dropped back to 16f, a much better run should be on the cards and her trainer is in great form. When you consider that Bella Bluesky and Rae Des Champs are 12/1 and 13/2 respectively, Martha Willow is surely worth backing e/w at odds of 25/1.
Doncaster and Kelso Saturday Tips: Martha Willow e/w @ 25/1 NB
3.35 Doncaster – Lincoln Handicap (Class 2)
I have already advised Hortzadar at 40s for the ‘Spring Double’ and there has been a few quid floating around for him already. Everything looks set for him to produce a big run, once O’Meara has him fit enough. After looking at the prices this evening, I also cannot resist having a small punt on Scottish Summit. We backed this fella at Wolves last time out in the trial for this race and unlike last season, he was given a pretty tame ride. Being trapped wide with no cover is not what this horse wants and he unsurprisingly finished a well beaten 7th.
We also backed him for the Lincoln last year, mostly because he ran such an eye-catching race in that same Wolves heat. Maybe he left his race behind him last year and Harker decided to give him a quiet prep run this time around. He was beat 9L into 10th behind Haqeeqy last season off 96 and he is 4lbs lower this time. I think he ran better than his finishing position suggests last season, he just paid the price for being too close to a strong early pace.
Patient Tactics
I am hoping PJ McDonald rides him cold this time, like how he was ridden when just failing to reel in Royal Fleet over today’s C&D off 94 in September. He only finished 0.5L behind that horse and he has since gone on to place in two G2s and win a G3 in Dubai. Raadobarg was a length behind Scottish Summit in 3rd and he is 7/1 for the Irish Lincolnshire.
On his other C&D run last season he again ran a blinder when 3rd, beat 1L by Stunning Beauty and Beat Le Bon. That effort also came off 94 so if he could repeat the level of form he showed in either of those C&D runs off his current rating of 92, he can surely challenge for place money. Winning may well be beyond him at this point but he produced the best form he has ever shown last season as an 8yo so hopefully, he can hit those heights again. If McDonald can get him settled early and they can find the gaps, Scottish Summit can outrun his huge odds of 80/1.
