Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tips – DS
Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Preview and Tips
Thank God for a bit of flat racing! Aintree wasn’t a complete disaster and we had some nice places. I was extremely frustrated that Domaine De L’Isle unseated in such a soft manner. He was running a massive race and if Harry Bannister had maintained the partnership I am fully convinced he would have flown home after the last. Hopefully he gets another crack at it next year. Now the focus switches back to the level for some high class fare at HQ. Check out Dave Stevos’ Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday preview and tips below.
1.15 – Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 4)
We did alright in the first 2yo race of the year with Primrose Ridge. Let’s hope we can go one better this afternoon. The ground is currently good at Newmarket with 2.6mm of rain forecast. It should be a beautiful, safe racing surface and at 50/1, maybe Lucy Lightfoot can surprise with a big run for last year’s winning trainer Stuart Williams. Desert Dreamer was sent off at 25/1 so the fact this filly is such a big price doesn’t concern me.
She is most definitely bred to be a 2yo winner. By Fast Company, two of her half siblings won as 2yos and another one went very close in a Juvenile race in France. Her dam, Redoubtable, finished 2nd on two of her first three starts as a 2yo. Her dam, Rebelline won first time out at Navan and she has produced plenty of Juvenile scorers.
This filly was a February foal so she should have a decent physical advantage over those foaled at later dates. Marco Ghiani takes the ride and he is 5/37 with a further 9 top four finishes on 2yos for Stuart Williams. As is always the case in these races, there is no form to go on so unless one has inside info, it is a bit of a guessing game. However, there is enough to like about Lucy Lightfoot’s profile to warrant a small e/w bet at 50/1.
Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Lucy Lightfoot e/w @ 50/1
1.50 – Weatherbys Handicap (Class 2)
At odds of 18/1, Ostilio is the pick in this 6f handicap. Now trained by Phil McEntee, this gelding is looking extremely well handicapped. His last win came in claimer for Archie Watson back in January and McEntee coughed up £16k for him. In three runs for his new stable, he hasn’t been off a yard. Twice he was slowly away and he was far too keen on the other run.
Every cloud has a silver lining though and he is now down to a mark of 87. This 7yo was a Listed winner in October 2020 when he was rated 108. Ok, he’s not as good now but last season he showed he was still capable of producing solid form off marks in the 90s. He has never won over 6f but the run that makes me fancy him here came over 5.5f at York last season.
That day he was in off 96 and he ran a blinder behind Copper Knight. He was only beat 3.75L for the win and with a clearer run he’d have finished far closer. He was only beat 4.75L in a Listed heat at Redcar subsequently (5f), staying on well. The booking of De Sousa catches the eye. He rode when this lad won the Britannia in 2018 and he is 7/59 with 26 top 4s for McEntee. That’s a frame hitting strike rate of over 50%, hopefully he can improve it on Ostilio at odds of 18/1.
Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Ostilio e/w @ 18/1 NAP (5 places W hill)
2.25 – Free Handicap (Listed)
Just the five will go to post in this Listed Handicap. It doesn’t make much appeal as a betting heat. They are all coming back from breaks, though New Science did have an outing in Meydan in February so he could possibly be sharper. He’ll enjoy the ground whereas Tacarib Bay is unraced on faster than soft. Ribhi won 2/3 starts last season and he already has black type in the book.
Power Of Beauty has been placed at Listed level and he has been gelded since flopping at Haydock. Hugo Palmer’s only runner in the last fortnight won so he does make a little bit of appeal at double figure odds. However, with only two places available (and possibly win only if there is a non-runner) this is a race I’m happy to watch. No bet.
Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: No Bet
3.00 – Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3)
Only seven will line up in the stalls for this 9f G3. The bookies reckon it is a two horse race. If the top two run to form, then it probably is. However, both Master Of The Seas and Magellan are returning from over 6 months off, as is third favourite Bell Rock. This will be Master Of The Seas’ first run beyond a mile too and for a keen going sort like him, this extra furlong may not be ideal. With a rating of 117 he should win but there are enough question marks to take him on.
Megallan will get the trip but he’ll have bigger targets on the agenda than this race. The 6yo Bell Rock is a former C&D winner and I’d imagine Balding has earmarked this race for him. However, Balding’s do tend to improve for their first run back and that is slightly off-putting. Of those at double figure prices, the rag Chichester could run into the frame.
Race Fitness
Keith Dalgleish did us a favour with Volatile Analyst a couple of weeks ago. Just like this horse he was up against a few rivals having their first runs back whereas he had race fitness on his side. So does this son of Dansili and he ran a huge race on his return when beat a neck in a 10f Listed contest at Kempton.
He will like the ground, his stamina is assured and he had excuses when he ran poorly in a handicap here in September. He had Father Of Jazz a neck behind last time at Kempton and they meet on the same terms here. If this race was over 10f on the all-weather, I’d fancy Varian’s horse to reverse that form. Over a furlong shorter on good ground, the Dalgleish horse is readily preferred. At odds of 22/1, Chichester is the each way selection but keep stakes to a minimum. If the top two are at their best, he’ll be playing for third.
Newmarket Craven Meeting Tuesday Tip: Chichester e/w @ 22/1
3.35 – Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3)
The 3yo fillies will put their 1000 Guineas credentials to the test in this 7f G3. The one I like at a nice each way price is Romantic Time. Trained by William Stone, I tipped this filly up on her final run of last season in the 7f Rockfel over today’s C&D. Unfortunately, she was far too keen early and that ended any hopes she had of staying the 7f distance. However, I don’t think she can be written off as a non-stayer on the back of that run and she is definitely worth another crack at the distance.
There is plenty of stamina on the dam side of her pedigree. Her dam is a half to Top Tug, a winner at 14f and her grand-dam was a 7f Listed winner. Her sire, Time Test, was best at 10-12f and he too is related to a heap of 8f+ winners. The ways he finished off her race when landing a G3 over 6f at Salisbury last season also suggests that this distance should not be beyond her.
That was the only time Hollie Doyle rode this filly and she is back on board today. With a rating of 96, Romantic Time clearly must improve plenty to win this. However, if Doyle can get her settled early I believe she is capable of outrunning her rating and finishing strongly.
The fav Cachet has only won a maiden, Romantic Time had the measure of Perfect News at Salisbury and the likes of Rishes Baar and Ribbon Rose are unproven at this level. As a former G3 winner I think Romantic Time is well overpriced and at 16/1, hopefully she can give William Stone something to shout about.
