2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Preview and Tips – JP
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Preview
Last time at the Australian GP James Punt had a field day. He fired in a number of winners, including Charles Leclerc to take the victory. He is back in action this weekend and hopefully he’ll be sending the bookies to run for cover again. Check out James’ 2022 Emilia-Romagna GP preview and tips below.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP
Formula 1 returns to Europe for round four of the 2022 season. It is one of two home races for the two Italian teams, Ferrari and Alpha Tauri. Some might say that Haas could be added to those two as they have an office at Maranello. Alpha Tauri is the true home team as their HQ is only 15km from the track.
The season so far is very much going Ferrari’s way. They are 39 points ahead of Mercedes who are second in terms of points scored, not on performance. Red Bull are a further 10 points adrift of Mercedes, but clearly Ferrari’s nearest rival in terms of performance.
Red Bull have a car that is fast, not so good in slower corners and very unreliable. Max Verstappen has had two DNF’s, Perez one. That is a 50% retirement rate for the team and suggests that the Constructors title race is half won already.
Ferrari have a car that has a much bigger sweet spot, slightly slower at the end of long straights, but quicker out of corners. It likes tracks that have a lot of corners and short straights, but it goes well on most tracks.
Clearly the traits of both cars mean that looking at a track’s characteristics will give us a clue as to who will perform better.
Old School Imola
This weekend sees Imola as the host circuit. An old school, fast track with 13 proper corners. The first sector is a long curved ‘straight’ with a couple of chicanes. That should be Red Bull friendly, but things go Ferrari’s way for the rest of the lap. Shorter straights and more, slower corners. That sort of lay out will reward Ferrari’s better traction and acceleration. The track looks to give Ferrari the advantage.
Ferrari also have a reliability advantage. Red Bull will be looking for fixes, Ferrari will be looking to improve performance. Red Bull’s Helmut Marko says their problems with getting fuel from the tank to the power unit will be fixed in time for the weekend. He is adamant that there is nothing wrong with the power unit. It was a burst fuel line which caused Verstappen’s latest retirement, so a different fuel issue than caused the double retirement in Bahrain. There still must be some concern that reliability will still be an issue.
Rain A Possibility
The weather in Europe in spring can also play its part. The forecast for the weekend has mostly cloudy conditions, reasonably warm for Saturday and Sunday, but showers are around on Friday and Sunday. That doesn’t mean a proper wet race, but we may get a bit of rain to mix things up.
Friday looks pretty horrible on the latest forecasts. Wet, windy and cold. Saturday is forecast to be dry and warm, but still windy. Sunday is harder to call. One forecast says a 60% chance of light showers, another, dry, sunny but again, both have the wind blowing hard.
This is also one of the races to feature the Sprint Race Qualifying. This means the teams have just the one-hour practice session on Friday morning to hone their set up, but the regular qualifying format is used to set the grid for Saturdays sprint race. After Fridays qualifying session, the cars are in Parc Ferme conditions and that means the set ups are locked in for the rest of the weekend.
Weather Worries
The threat of rain will give the teams a bit of a headache. They will be looking at the forecast for Sunday and will have to make a decision as to how to set the car up for Fridays qualifying. If they think we will have a wet race they might look to put more downforce on the car, but the current forecasts are unclear for Sunday. If it remained dry, that would leave them with a car that would be slow in the first sector and vulnerable to being passed.
The fact that there is only a one hour free practice session on Friday means that teams are less likely to bring major upgrades this weekend. They like to run back-to-back tests to compare the new parts to the old ones. There won’t be enough time to do that properly.
No Major Upgrades For Ferrari
Teams who are not competing for the Championships, and that is most of them, may decide that it is worth the risk, but Ferrari have said that they won’t be bringing a major upgrade for this reason. The next race is a fly away one on the new Miami circuit, and my guess is that the big teams will be looking at Barcelona in a month’s time to introduce a major upgrade.
The poor weather forecast for FP1 makes putting on upgrades nearly pointless. Running in the wet, in windy conditions. I am not sure if the teams will be able to gather much worthwhile data in those conditions. It is a real headache for the engineers. They will have the FP2 session on Saturday to use as a data gathering session, so it will not be a total waste of time.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP: Past Form
The track has played host to one Italian GP way back in 1980, and it was used for the San Marino GP from 1981 to 2006. In the modern Turbo-Hybrid era we have had just the two races here in 2020 and 2021.
Two races are not enough to draw many firm conclusions, but Hamilton has win and a second place, Verstappen a win and a DNF, Leclerc a fourth and fifth place. McLaren has had two double points finishes, Ricciardo has a third and sixth place, Norris eighth and third. It is Alpha Tauri’s home race and they have had a 4th place in 2020 with Kvyat and a seventh for Gasly last year. They have qualified well in both years, fifth for Gasly last year and fourth in 2020.
The Attrition rate has been quite high with five DNF’s in 2020 and three last year, all crashes. The pole position driver is yet to finish first and the safety car has made an appearance in both races. There has been a ‘outsider’ on the podium in both races, Norris for McLaren last year and Ricciardo for Renault in 2020. The races have been exciting and dramatic at times.
2022 Form
Ferrari have established themselves as the car to beat and that should remain the case this weekend. Charles Leclerc has finished in the top 5 here in both races and he starts as the 2.25 favourite. He has been on pole position twice and always started on the front row in 2022. Leclerc has also set all three fastest laps so far.
Carlos Sainz had problems not of his own making in qualifying in Australia, but it was his error that led to him spinning out on the opening lap. He needs to regroup and get back on the podium. There are already calls for him to accept number 2 status so, ideally, he needs to win to keep his title aspirations alive.
Sainz will have been distracted by his contract negotiations but happily for him, Ferrari have done the right thing and given him a full two-year extension. Sainz can now just get his head down and try and win the race.
Red Bull In Bother
Red Bull are in trouble. Their car is fast and can win races, but reliability has been very poor, and the car needs the right sort of track to be fully competitive. One bit of good news is that Perez is pulling his weight, looks more comfortable with this year’s car and his qualifying performances are much improved. He out qualified Verstappen here last year and that was a rare event.
Talking of weight, Red Bull are said to be 12kg over the minimum weight and 10 kg heavier than the Ferrari. That is giving up 0.3 per lap to their rival. The team are confident that they know what line of development they need to take, concede that their efforts to win last year’s title compromised this year’s car and that they are playing catch up. They will have some small ‘evolutionary’ upgrades, but nothing major due to the sprint race format.
It looks like these evolutionary upgrades are weight saving changes. It will be a lengthy process to drop 10 kgs but they hope to do it by the time we get to Spain in three races time.
Mercedes 3rd Row Merchants
Mercedes is sitting in an unlikely second place in the constructor’s championship but that doesn’t reflect the cars performance so far. They are third row merchants who have got lucky. If Red Bull continue to suffer DNF’s then Mercedes can continue to get lucky, but they will have one eye on the teams behind them as much as the two in front.
The Merc is another car with a weight problem, said to be 8kg over the minimum. They are not throwing new parts at the car as they need to fully understand what is wrong with it before applying any fixes. As a result, the midfield teams are likely to overtake Mercedes in the pecking order. Alpine and McLaren are entering the fray to be best of the rest.
McLaren are making progress, but it will be interesting to see how they get on this weekend. So far, they have been much more competitive on fast tracks with few slow corners. The changes to the track in Melbourne helped them but this track may be a little less favourable. Points are still possible, and the team are planning a few small upgrades, but Norris says he is a little unsure of how they will go this weekend, but maybe not as well as at the last two tracks.
Alpine Bringing Upgrade
Alpine are one team that say they are bringing a substantial aero upgrade this weekend. So far, their season can be called promising at times, but they need better reliability, and a trouble-free weekend will give us a clearer picture of where they stand. At best, they could pick up a podium, more likely a top 6 or 7 finish.
The upgrade is said to be a new floor and its benefits are expected to be significant. Team boss Otmar Szafnauer says that he expects this track to suit their car, so we need to be onside with Alpine this weekend.
Much the same can be said for Alfa Romeo. Bottas has two top 8 finishes and an 11th, whilst Zhou a 10th and 11th and a DNF. The car is quick, but it lacked qualifying pace in Melbourne. More points seem likely, but reliability niggles are holding them back. Alfa Romeo plan to bring updates at most races this season, and this weekend they have a new floor to introduce.
Reliability Issues For Haas
Haas failed to score in Australia and reliability is a problem for them as well. A trouble-free weekend can see them back in the points. Their car is going to be investigated by the FIA after complaints from rivals that it is a copy of this year’s Ferrari. Sour grapes? Perhaps. It should be remembered that they gave up their 2021 season in order to put their resources, limited resources, all into this year’s car. Perhaps that is now paying dividends?
Alpha Tauri have had a car in the points in all three races so far. They have gone well here in the past, but like this season, only with one car. They use this track for pre-season shakedown tests and arguably know it better than the other teams, but not by a significant amount. Do not be surprised to see them well up the time sheets at times this weekend. If we were to get a damp FP1, they might go for a low fuel glory run to lift the team’s morale on home turf. Alpha Tauri are one of the teams committing to bringing upgrades this weekend. They have a new floor and front brake ducts.
Albon Audacious Down Under
Williams managed to score a point in Melbourne after an audacious strategy for Albon. He ran all but the last lap on the same set of hard tyres and Albon said the tyres just got better by the lap, better even than the softs in qualifying. They still needed three retirements to help them out and I don’t expect a repeat here, but we shall see if they try a repeat of the same strategy. They are making Aston Martin look poor.
Aston Martin remain the only team yet to score a point and it is hard to say anything positive about the team and this year’s car. Morale is low, the car is slow, very overweight, unreliable and handles poorly. Apart from that, its fine.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP: Ante Post Selections
It is time to have a little go in the FP1 market to get the weekend underway. Alpha Tauri have come close to getting a car into the top 3 in FP1 here in the last two years. Gasly has been fourth in both FP1 sessions and if we were to get a bit of rain, you never know.
He was fastest in the Bahrain FP1 session and the temptation to go for a (very) low fuel run will be hard to resist. With this session being the only one before the cars are put under parc ferme rules, most teams will be concentrating on finding a good race set up, especially with this effectively being a two-race weekend.
The latest weather forecast has upped the chances of rain in FP1 from light showers, to moderate rain, along with blustery winds and it will be cold. It will be horrible. Alpha Tauri have often gone well in the wet, but I suspect that the Ferrari will have the best car in slippy conditions. Carlos Sainz, with a brand new 2 year contract signed yesterday, is a great wet weather driver and in a car that suits the track and conditions, he must have a decent chance of making the home fans happy.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 0.5 point Pierre Gasly to be fastest in FP1 @ 26.00 generally available
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to be fastest in FP1 @ 8.00 with Ladbrokes
Charles Leclerc has been the best qualifier so far with two poles and a second place. The second place was in Saudi Arabia, a track which was better suited to Red Bull than Ferrari. On a circuit that looks better suited to Ferrari this weekend, Leclerc looked the most likely to be the fastest in the ‘regular’ qualifying on Friday afternoon. However, with the weather conditions still looking on the damp side, it could be that Carlos Sainz in the better value at 6.00.
The weather conditions are forecast to improve somewhat for the afternoons qualifying session, light rain and a little less windy. I was going to have a stronger bet on Leclerc but the forecast makes a more cautious approach seem wise.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.30 with Ladbrokes
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 0.5 point Carlos Sainz to be the fastest qualifier @ 6.00 with Ladbrokes
Alonso crashed in qualifying in Melbourne last time out and said that it cost him a shot at pole position. He had set a purple in sector 1, but the Alpine was conceding a lot of time to the Ferrari in sector three and he wouldn’t have made pole but could have been on the second row.
With a ‘significant’ aero upgrade for the floor and on a track expected to suit their car, Alpine could be the best of the rest this weekend. Ocon has form figures of 7/6/7 from the first three races and while they have been flattered by the poor reliability of the Red Bull and Sainz crashing out in Australia, they are in line to make the jump to be best of the rest and finish top six on merit.
