2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Update – JP
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying Update
After a thrilling qualifying sprint race on Saturday, Max Verstappen took pole. Will he make the advantage count or will the Tifosi inspire Leclerc and Ferrari to victory. James Punt has a 2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday update, check out who he is backing below.
Wet Weather On The Cards
The first thing to deal with is the weather forecast. The track was damp for this morning’s F3 race, but quickly dried and it was fine for dry tyres. The F2 race that followed was held in dry conditions, but the clouds were building. Rain arrived not long after the end of the F2 race and the Porsche race was started on a wet track, and with a very blustery wind.
The F1 race starts at 3pm local time and the forecast is for a showery afternoon. Rain is forecast to wet the track around an hour and a half before the start, but it should clear after about 30 minutes into the race, and we will have a dry spell, before the chance of another sprinkle late in the race. Those are challenging conditions.
Yellow Flags Likely
What seems much more likely is a race affected by yellow flags and at least one safety car. This track doesn’t take prisoners and there is just not enough room off the track to safely recover cars. It makes for a disjointed race, introduces more random factors, and that is before we factor in rain. It is likely that luck will play a part today. Safety cars tend to be lucky for some, unlucky for others and there is no way to predict them.
However, having a quick car is still your best chance of winning the race, and that means the winner should be a Red Bull or Ferrari. They are a step clear of the best of the rest, McLaren this weekend, and it would take something very strange to see one of the four drivers starting on the front two rows not winning. We might get another ‘outsider’ on the podium thanks to the possibility of a mixed up race.
Norris May Take Chance
Norris can take his chances these kind of races and his McLaren looked good in the wet on Friday. He will need some attrition in front of him, or just a lucky break, but the conditions do open things up for him. He was robbed by the late rain in Russia last year, maybe karma will be his friend today.
Yesterday’s Sprint Race was won by Max Verstappen, easily in the end, after he lost out to Leclerc at the start. The Ferrari took the lead and opened up a gap, before his tyres started to grain and Verstappen reeled him and passed him.
The nature of the track is helping Red Bull. I expected it to be Ferrari friendly, for the first sector to be Red Bull friendly, but the rest of the lap to be better for Ferrari. It turns out that the first sector is the critical one. Overtaking is hard here, but the long drag down to the first chicane gives the best place to pass, especially when DRS is involved. Once Verstappen got within DRS range, Leclerc was a goner. The Ferrari is quicker out of corners, but the Red Bulls top speed is greater and by the end of that long straight, the Ferrari was defenceless.
Graining Problems
Ferrari are hopeful that they can still race to win, if they can avoid the graining problems that affected them in yesterday’s sprint race. That race was only 21 laps long and required no mandatory pit stops. Most drivers choose the soft compound tyre, and it just didn’t quite work for Ferrari. Today, they have a 63 lap race and everyone must make a mandatory stop to change to a different compound of tyre to that on which they start. That may well just be wet weather tyres to the slicks, it might be wet, dry, wet, it is very unpredictable.
The pit lane at Imola is very long and as a result, a pit stop takes around 30 seconds. That in turn makes a one stop race the best strategy. That in turn makes the soft tyre superfluous, maybe. The simple strategy is to start on the mediums and stop for a change to the hard for the reminder of the race. If we get, and it is likely, a lot of running under the safety car, the mediums could last long enough to make a switch to the soft tyres the way to go for the final stint. A wet start and all that is out the window, and that looks to be the case.
Fluid Strategies Likely
There are strategy options, but things are likely to be very fluid and the strategists will have to be thinking on their feet this afternoon and hoping for some old-fashioned good luck.
The Red Bull and Ferrari appear to have similar pace and if Ferrari do not suffer with the same graining problem, then we have a race, but Red Bull do seem to have less tyre degradation which gives them better strategy options, and that speed advantage at the crucial point at the end of the straight.
Verstappen starts as the 2.00 favourite, Leclerc 2.70 and Perez 13.00 with Sainz at 15.00. It is hard to argue with those odds, but I do not fancy backing a driver who has failed to finish two of the three races so far at 2.00. He has the car most likely to have the best race pace, but if he has another fuel problem, that won’t count for much. Red Bull say the problems are fixed, but you are taking that on trust. Verstappen should win, but the odds are a little too short given the reliability issues, the rain and the nature of the track causing safety car deployments.
Look For Long Shots
In races like this, it is wise to keep your powder dry, or expect the unexpected and look at long shots. Roll the dice with some small stakes on bigger odds and hope that one lands.
McLaren have been all over the place this weekend as high as third in normal qualifying with Norris or sitting the garage with car problems. They did go well in the wet and Norris may get some more wet stuff this afternoon. You are just not quite sure with the McLaren at the moment, but conditions may give them the chance to get a surprise result.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Norris to finish on the podium @ 7.00 with Ladbrokes
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Norris to win the Emilia Romagna GP @ 51.00 with Unibet, Ladbrokes
One driver who would like rain is Vettel. He is a decent wet weather driver, and the lower speeds bring Aston Martin into the midfield. He was ninth in normal qualifying when it was dry, then wet, but down in 13th in the dry sprint race. I like to side with experienced drivers in races which could turn chaotic.
He knows that keeping the car on the track might be enough to land the team’s first points if we get a showery race and plenty of retirements. He has only had the one race this season but Stroll in the other Aston Martin has finished all three, and all within two or three places outside the points. Not miles away in other words.
The Aston Martin is a bad car, there is no getting round that, but every dog has its day and all that. They might just be dealt a hand that lucks them into the points. Starting 13th is the highest up the grid an Aston Martin has started this season and I’ll take the gamble, and it is a gamble, that Seb gets this terrible car into the top 10.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Sebastian Vettel to finish in the points @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes
We backed the Alpines for a top 6 finish ante post, but Ocon is nowhere this weekend. Alonso had been going really well right up to the sprint race. Fifth in ‘normal’ qualifying but the car looked a real handful in the sprint, and he could only finish ninth. A wet and crazy race gives him a chance of that top 6, but I didn’t like the way it handled yesterday.
Bottas has already has a top 6 this season and he has been going well here. He is a 2.20 shot to finish top six today which is tempting. He is a good wet weather racer and in good form. But, like Red Bull, the car has been very unreliable.
Haas are starting with two drivers in the top 10. The car didn’t go well on the medium tyres for Magnussen yesterday but the car does look to have decent pace and they have been reliable this weekend. I am not sure if Mick has the same wet weather skills as his father, but he drove well enough yesterday and if he can keep it on the road, points are a real possibility today. He is odds on with most firms, as is Magnussen. A double points finish? It will happen at some point but odds of just 2.38 are not enough given today’s conditions.
Russell Has Poor Imola Record
Mercedes briefly looked good in FP2, with Russell fastest, but he was using new softs, on low fuel and with DRS, otherwise the car has looked very poor. Russell has been faster than a disgruntled Hamilton in every session and is 1.60 to beat the multiple world champion. However, Russell has a poor record here, crashing out when warming his tyres behind the safety car in 2020 and crashing out when he attempted an overly ambitious passing move on Bottas. With difficult conditions today, in an ill handling car, will he make it three DNF’s at Imola?
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell not to be classified @ 3.75 with BET365
With just over an hour to go, the rain is falling at the track, and it will be a wet track to start with, much like last year. Conditions will be tricky, and these big, heavy cars don’t look easy to drive in the wet. We have seen a total of eight DNF’s from the two races here and it is not unreasonable to expect a few offs today. The gravel traps are good at stopping the cars, but they can be hard to get out of and the barriers are pretty close to the track as well.
2022 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point under 16.5 classified finishers @ 2.00 with Betvictor
The final bet is on Charles Leclerc to be leading at the end of the first lap, just as he did in yesterday’s sprint race. He could be better off the line like yesterday, or just get a good slip stream from Verstappen.
