Saturday Newmarket and Thirsk Preview and Tips – DS
Saturday Newmarket and Thirsk Tips and Preview
What a weekend of racing we have ahead of us. We have already had a look at the 1000 and 2000 Guineas ante-post. While my selection for the 1000 doesn’t run, we have a 66/1 poke in the 2000. There is plenty of other quality fare on the menu too, inlcuing the Thirsk Hunt Cup. Check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday Newmarket and Thirsk tips and preview below.
1.50 Newmarket – Betfair Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
With the drying ground in his favour, Apollo One is surely overpriced at 28/1. This is a horse long time followers should be familiar with. We have backed him on more than one occasion, including when he was beat a short head off 100 in a 6f Newmarket handicap last season. That was admittedly on the July course and he is yet to run on the Rowley but hopefully he’ll be equally as effective on it.
The booking of James Doyle catches the eye. He was on board for that narrow defeat last season and he’ll be keen to make amends. This horse ran poorly in a couple of all-weather outings earlier this year after he was gelded. However, the handicapper dropped him back to 100 so the runs weren’t in vain. There isn’t a whole lot of pace in this so hopefully Doyle can get a quick start from stall 13 and get an easy lead. If he does, Apollo One should go close at odds of 28/1.
Saturday Newmarket and Thirsk Tips: Apollo One e/w @ 28/1 (6 places Hills) nb
2.05 Thirsk – Thirsk Hunt Cup (Class 2)
A field of 15 will line up in the stalls for this valuable 8f handicap. At the top of the market On A Session holds obvious claims. This consistent son of Noble Mission ran a cracker at Lingfield last time, going down by less than 1L off 89. Last season at Galway he was only 0.5L behind Current Option off 90, the same mark off which he races today. He was only beat 2L off 92 in this race last season and he has the assistance of Graham Lee in the saddle. He should be bang there at the finish.
At double figure odds, maybe last season’s 5th Jean Baptiste can go well. Now trained by Roger Fell, this horse was just behind On A Session and Astro King in this race last year for George Boughey. He was racing off a mark of 83 and he is in off 81 today. The son of Invincible Spirit has run well fresh in the past and Fell is well able to ready one for a valuable handicap. Fell has had five winners in the last week, hopefully Jean Baptiste gives him another one here. At odds of 16/1, he is the e/w selection.
Saturday Newmarket and Thirsk Tips: Jean Baptiste e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
2.25 Newmarket – Suffolk Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
If he is ready to go after his Winter break, Cap Francais looks a big price at 20s. This horse is starting to look nicely handicapped off a mark of 93. He is now below his last winning mark for the first time since that 2020 Haydock victory (8f gd). That victory came on his first start of the season and he was 2nd in a 10f Listed heat at Epsom on his first start of the 2019 season.
On his return to action in 2021 he ran a lovely race in Meydan. Ok, he finished in 10th but he was only 2.25L behind the winner racing off a mark of 100. After his spell in Meydan he was picked up at the sales by his current trainer for 88k. On his first start for Williams he was far from disgraced on ground that was too soft for him at Newbury (10f sft).
You can put a line through his last two runs on the all-weather. I’d imagine they were designed to get his handicap mark down before he returned to the turf. On his last start in Meydan he was beat just 3L into 4th off 100 (9f gd). If he can repeat that form off 7lbs lower, he surely has e/w claims at odds of 22/1.
Saturday Newmarket and Thirsk Tips: Cap Francais e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
2.40 Goodwood – Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
It is so annoying when these Listed fillies’ races only have seven runners. The first three home will get black type but the bookies only pay out on two places. So anyway, Primo Bacio should win this if anywhere near her best. Last season we backed this filly when she hacked up in a Listed heat at York. She was a very unlucky 5th in the Falmouth behind some top class operators but after that, her form tailed off. In France she ran alright when beat 2L by Mother Earth but she ran no race either at York or Newmarket on her last two starts of the campaign.
She now drops back into Listed company for the first time since her last win. The two 3yos get a stone from her but that generation’s advantage is bigger in the second half of the season. Almohandesah has less to prove than Zanbaq at this level so if I was backing anything, it would probably be him. However, I am happy to just watch this race. I hope Primo Bacio can rediscover her form because she has the turn of foot required to be competitive at a much higher level than this.
Saturday Newmarket and Thirsk Tips: No Bet
3.00 Newmarket – Palace House Stakes (Group 3)
The one I like at a decent e/w price in this 5f G3 is Zarzyni for the Barron’s and Ben Curtis. This horse was formerly trained in Ireland by Mick Halford. He had some useful form on the Emerald Isle, including a superb effort in the G3 Round Tower Stakes as a 2yo. He finished just 2L behind Lope Y Fernandez and after an underwhelming 3yo campaign, he was picked up at the sales for £62k by current connections.
What a buy this fella has proved to be. He has had nine runs for his new trainers, returning form figures of 320122221. That last win came in a hot handicap at Musselburgh off 99 and he is now rated 104. That leaves him with a bit to find with the likes of Tis Marvellous, Hurricane Ivor and Came From The Dark but unlike those three rivals, he has a recent run under his belt. The Barrons haven’t had a huge amount of runners at Newmarket over the years (280 total) but 103 of them have hit the frame (25 winners). Trip track and ground should all be fine for this progressive sort and at odds of 14/1, Zarzyni is the e/w selection.
Saturday Newmarket and Thirsk Tips: Zarzyni e/w @ 14/1 (4 places) nap
3.40 Newmarket – 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)
The first classic of the season and in what could be a recurring theme, Charlie Appleby trains the red hot favourite (and the 2nd fav). Native Trail is still just about odds against but you would think he’ll be odds on by post time. This 122 rated son of Oasis Dream is a monster and he remains undefeated after five starts.
He was kept to 7f last season, which raised some doubts about his stamina. Those doubts were dispelled in style here a fortnight ago when he hacked up in the Craven. It is very hard to pick holes in this lad and it would be a major surprise were he to taste defeat.
Coroebus is a beautifully bred son of Dubawi and he was 2/3 at Newmarket last season, all over 8f. He is clearly an extremely talented horse but you’d have to think he’ll want further this year. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if he won and he should be finishing off stronger than most.
Ballydoyle Challenge
The Ballydoyle challenge is headed by Luxembourg and Point Lonsdale. Luxembourg is the mount of Ryan Moore, Frankie rides Point Lonsdale. The latter horse has already faced Native Trail at the Curragh and he went back to Tipperary with his tail between his legs. He had no excuses for that 3.5L defeat and he’ll need to have improved plenty over the winter to get near that rival.
Luxembourg has yet to taste defeat after three starts. The son of Camelot went from a maiden in Killarney to a G2 at the Curragh before winning the G1 Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. He’s progressive, he gets a mile and he is obviously entitled to maximum respect given who trains him. There is stamina on the dam side of his pedigree though and whatever he does here, he should be seen to best effect over further later this season.
Will Power Be Perfect?
Belgian superstar Christophe Soumillon is over to ride Perfect Power again for Richard Fahey. This son of Ardad won nicely enough over 7f at Newbury last time but this extra furlong raises further stamina doubts. He probably does get a mile but he’ll need to settle better in a race of this quality.
Eydon made a big impression when winning over 9f here on his return to action. He hacked up in that Listed contest but this is a very different kettle of fish. However, the horse he beat easily at Newbury (Masekela) got to within a short head of Native Trail in the Superlative last year and he also beat Bayside Boy so there is substance to the win. He is an interesting outsider.
Huge Odds
I have already put Berkshire Shadow up for this ante-post at 66s and he is 80s with one or two now. You can read why I think he is overpriced here. He has loads of speed, as he showed when winning the Coventry and if he gets the mile, hopefully he can run into the places. The other one that looks massively overpriced at 33s is Royal Patronage. This horse landed us a lovely touch at 25s at York last season and two runs later he beat Coroebus a neck over today’s C&D.
The reason this horse is such a big price is his poor run in the G1 Vertem Futurity. He trailed in 17L last behind Luxembourg but the soft ground was a valid excuse. His three runs on good or better have seen him win twice and finish 4L 2nd to Native Trail. How this fella is 33s and Coroebus is 11/2 is beyond me and at the prices, Royal Patronage has to be worth backing e/w.
