2022 Miami GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Miami GP Raceday Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2022 Miami GP Raceday update. He has had time to weigh up the track, hopefully he can find us a few winning wagers. You can check out James Punt’s ante-post preview by clicking here.
2022 Miami GP Raceday Preview
After the qualifying dust has settled the talking point is the dust, and the marbles, and the quality of the track surface.
It is all well and good having a fake Marina and fake beach complete with fake Mermaids, but the sport needs a track that is fit for purpose. It is not all about the show.
The designers of the track were very proud of themselves for including ‘mistake generators’ into the design. What they didn’t take into account was that those mistake generators would be multiplied by a factor of ten by dust and dirt, and then the rubber discarded by the car’s tyres lying just off the racing line.
Marble Issues
There is nothing new about rubber ‘marbles’. They have been a feature for donkey’s years and they can be problematic, causing cars to lose grip. But when you have off camber corners with marbles, the back end off the car is going to swing round and the car is out of the race. Not only out of the race, but it then brings out the safety car, or a red flag. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but not if it happens multiple times.
The drivers are going to have to make the decision as to whether they just stick rigidly to the racing line to avoid any chance of spinning out, or do they take the chance and run off line, pick up the dirt on their tyres and risk spinning out at the next corner. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for good racing.
Effectively, we have a single file racetrack. That means the pole position driver has a nice advantage. Of course, the likely safety cars or red flags can throw a spanner in the works, even for a driver controlling the race.
It is Charles Leclerc who will start form pole position and he will be the driver least bothered by the one line track.
Leclerc starts form the more rubbered inside of the track, but he has Verstappen behind him, with a decent run into the first corner, and if he is brave, Max can risk running offline to try and pinch the lead, or crash.
First Lap Fraught With Risk
The first lap is going to be a big risk and reward exercise for the drivers. Traditionally one of the best places to make up places, the first lap here will be extra risky. Drivers can’t help themselves, if a gap opens up, they go for it, but this time, it might be a trap door.
There will be some conservative drivers who know that staying on the track may be the best reward on the opening lap and hope to settle into a rhythm and see how the race plays out. Others might just have a go and see what happens. I guess it could be exciting and it will be interesting, but will it make for great racing?
After speculating about the potential for a messy start, trying to guess how the race may pan out is equally as difficult. With no past form to go on it isn’t easy. With no proper long runs carried out so far, thanks to the numerous red flags in practice, nobody knows just how well the tyres will last.
Softs For Leclerc?
Leclerc was focused on the soft tyre while Red Bull did more running on the medium and hard, obviously with one eye on the race. Ferrari may have decided that its best to get pole and then see how the race pans out, because it is unlikely to go to any plan.
A two stop race is the ‘likely’ strategy but my guess is that opportunism, or luck, will be the drivers’ biggest friend. Being at the front or close to it is the place to be even in fluid situations and it is up to the pit wall to make the best call. I would tend towards Red Bull to make the better operational decisions.
Ferrari are concerned by the straight line pace of the Red Bull. They have their low drag rear wing, but the Red Bulls were still significantly faster and with three long straights here, that is a good advantage to have.
Fast Start Valuable
Ferrari start with track advantage and on a track where there is just one racing line, a good start could be very valuable. It means the Red Bulls would have to take the gamble of going into the twilight zone that is the marbles. At least overtaking on the straight is not as risky, so long as the tyres then have enough grip back by the time the next corner arrives.
In summary, this looks like a very good race to either sit back and see how it goes and keep your money in your pocket, or just have a punt and hope to get lucky.
2022 Miami GP Raceday: Race Winner
Charles Leclerc starts as the 1.88 favourite, Verstappen 2.88, with Sainz 13.00 and Perez 17.00.
My gut instinct is that given the state of the track, pole position is where you want to be, if it stays too slippy offline. Verstappen is not out of it if he can use the straight line pace of the Red Bull to good effect. I can’t say that Leclerc is value however. The race at this venue is an unknown. Leclerc has not always been inch perfect on street circuits and if he has to press on? Mistakes are possible. Ferrari leave a bit to be desired operationally, whilst Red Bull are the more battle hardened team.
2022 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win @ 2.88 with Betfred, Hills, SportingIndex (3.15 Betfair Exchange)
2022 Miami GP Raceday Side Markets
Time to throw a few darts and hope to hit the target with one.
The Alpha Tauris got both cars into Q3 for the first time in 2022. Tsunoda is looking better this year and Gasly is an experienced opportunist. Like the Red Bulls, they have shown good straight line speed here and if they can stay out of trouble and get a bit lucky they might make that speed pay.
2022 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to be the winning driver without the Big Six (Fer, RB, Merc) @ 7.00 with Ladbrokes
Alonso was very quick in FP2 and 3, 5th and 4th, and the Alpine is another car that showed good straight line pace. Tyre wear may be a worry, but if we get a stop/start race that may not be the handicap it usually would be. He is a good starter and a wise old head is useful in unpredictable races.
