Saturday Newbury and Newmarket Preview – DS
Saturday Newbury and Newmarket Tips
It was a tough afternoon for us at York as we had our first blank of the meeting. Miss American Pie wasn’t up to the task in the opener. Arion was ridden exactly as I hoped, she just didn’t get home. Summa Peto ran well to a point but his lack of a recent run probably told. Let’s hope for a better afternoon on Lockinge Day. Dave Stevos’ Saturday Newbury and Newmarket tips are below.
1.35 Newbury – Carnarvon Stakes (Listed)
A Listed 6f sprint for the 3yos starts off proceedings on Lockinge Day at Newbury. Clive Cox has been amongst the winners in the last two weeks and Mohi looks an interesting contender for him here. By Acclamation, this fella has won two of his seven starts. He remains a maiden on turf, with both wins coming in 6f handicaps at Wolves off 80 and 85.
Three of his turf runs have come on ground with a bit of dig in it. His first two starts saw him beaten in strong 5f races behind G1 winner Angel Bleu and G2 winner Go Bears Go. On his final turf run of the season he ran a blinder in a Listed heat at Doncaster (6f sft), beat just 1L behind the 109 rated Flaming Rib.
On that form alone he should arguably be rated higher than 97. There should be some juice in the ground, which is a plus, and he will strip much fitter for his seasonal comeback over 5f at Nottingham. Stepping back up to 6f will suit him too. Liam Keniry rides and he is 4/10 for this owner with another three top 4s. With William Hill paying 4 places, Mohi is the e/w selection at odds of 18/1.
Saturday Newbury and Newmarket Tip: Mohi e/w @ 18/1 (4 places W Hill) NAP
1.50 Newmarket – Fairway Stakes (Listed)
If previous pattern races are anything to go by this season, Ottoman Fleet should win this. Charlie Appleby’s horses have been sweeping all before them and this horse shaped well on his debut at Newbury a month ago (11f gd). However, the winner was well beat in a Listed contest at Chester next time and no winners have come out of that race.
Zain Sarinda probably has the best form on paper. He ran a superb race at Epsom (10f gd) behind Nahanni last time out and a repeat of that may be enough. 13/2 looks a decent price about the son of Churchill. At bigger odds, Savvy Victory might surprise with a big run. He is rated 91 so he has a bit to find with a couple of these. He ran some blinders in defeat without winning as a 2yo but he got off the mark in good style on soft at Pontefract on his return.
12f on soft at Chester proved too much for him in a G3 last time out. The return to this shorter trip looks a great move and he will be fine on this better ground. Sean Woods has his horses in excellent form and this horse is bred to be a pattern level performer. 25/1 looks like an overreaction to his Chester run to me and at those odds, a small e/w interest is advised.
Saturday Newbury and Newmarket Tip: Savvy Victory e/w @ 25/1 (3 places Coral)
2.10 Newbury – Aston Park Stakes (Group 3)
Not a race I have a strong opinion on. Scope is a horse I like and I am still a bit sick over the ride he was given (by Rob Hornby) in the Leger last year. He proved he was a G1 horse in Longchamp subsequently, I’d just worry about the trip and ground for him on his return. I am happy to just watch him on this occasion, no bet.
Saturday Newbury and Newmarket Tip: No Bet
2.25 Newmarket – 3yo Handicap (Class 2)
I probably need to get my head examined tipping this filly again but if Romantic Time can rediscover the form she showed in her last turf start over 6f, she could outrun her huge odds here. Three runs since that excellent G3 victory at Salisbury haven’t gone to plan but two of them were over 7f and last time at Chelmsford she had zero luck in running.
She was far too free on her return to action in a G3 behind subsequent Guineas winner Cachet at Newmarket and she wasn’t disgraced in the circumstances. Is she well handicapped off 94? The horse she beat by 1L at Salisbury is rated 103 now. The 8th (2.5L behind) won a handicap off 93 next time out. A few of the other horses have let the form down but I think a mark of 94 could be workable for this filly and at 28/1, I am going to follow her over the cliff one last time.
Saturday Newbury and Newmarket Tip: Romantic Time e/w @ 28/1 (4 Places W Hill)
2.45 Newbury – London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2)
A trip of 10f awaits a field of 13 in what is always a competitive handicap. Off a mark of 89, I like the chances of La Pulga. Roger Charlton has an excellent record in this race. He has won three of the last six renewals and this horse has one piece of form that makes him look very nicely handicapped. That run came on his second handicap start at Doncaster (8f gd/sft) when he was just denied by Desert Angel off a mark of 88.
Desert Angel won that race off 79 and he has since won handicaps off 83 and 90. La Pulga disappointed next time out at York but he may have just been over the top. His seasonal reappearance at Sandown (8f gd) had all the hallmarks of a prep run and hopefully it was designed to get him ready for this race.
Will he stay 10f? If you looked solely at his pedigree, you’d have to say no. However, his run style suggests it is well worth a shot. The Charltons have their horses in good nick and Richard Kingscote is 3/12 with two places when riding for the yard. If La Pulga gets the trip he could go very close at odds of 18/1.
Saturday Newbury and Newmarket Tip: La Pulga e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NB
3.00 Newmarket – LLP Handicap (Class 2)
Michael Bell’s horses are flying at the minute and off a mark of 86, Natural Path could continue his good form in this 7f handicap. By Toronado, this 5yo is a bit of a globetrotter. He started out his career in France where he won his first three starts. Those wins came over 7f (2) and 8f on ground ranging from good to soft. He was sold after an underwhelming 3yo campaign and he moved to Bell’s.
His first start for the yard came at Doncaster (7f gd) where he was beat 2.5L off 79. He dropped to 6f for his next three starts and returned form figures of 211. The last of those wins came off 84 at Yarmouth. Bell then headed to Bahrain for the Winter where he improved with all four runs. His last start over there saw him run his best race when beat a length over 7f on good.
Natural Path returns to UK action off 86, just 2lbs higher than his last winning mark. David Egan is 1/10 with six Top 4s for Bell this season (70% frame hitting strike rate). At odds of 16/1, hopefully he can improve on that excellent record on Natural Path.
Saturday Newbury and Newmarket Tip: Natural Path e/w @ 16/1
3.20 Newbury – Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)
Last up is the feature, the G1 Lockinge Stakes. We have an odds on fav here in the shape of Baaeed. This son of Sea The Stars is a huge talent. He is 6/6 so far, including two Group 1s. He lowered the colours of Palace Pier by a neck on his final 3yo outing and on his previous start he proved too good for Palace Pier. The margin of his victories shrunk dramatically since he stepped up to the top table though and if he is going to be beaten, first time up might be the most likely time it happens.
No Excuses
Mother Earth and Alcohol Free have both already finished well behind Baaeed with no apparent excuses. The one I am going to back e/w against the fav is Chindit. He ran some great races last season in top class company. He was a solid 5th in the Guineas and at Royal Ascot, beat around 5L on both occasions. In Deauville he got to within 3L of Palace Pier and he finished off last season with a couple of sound G2 efforts at Goodwood and Newmarket.
The son of Wootton Bassett has clearly trained on if his seasonal reappearance was anything to go by. Yes, it was only a Listed heat but he did it impressively, beating three rivals by 2.75L. The third home Boosala went agonisingly close at Chester off 104 on his next start so it is decent form. The more the ground dries out, the more it should suit him and while Baeed should win if he is fully fit, Chindit could be the one to pick up the pieces if he needs the run.
