2022 Monaco GP Preview and Betting Tips – JP
2022 Monaco GP Preview
Last weekend’s Spanish GP was held at the ultimate ‘car’ circuit. This weekend we have the 2022 Monaco GP, and one of the strongest ‘driver’ tracks.
The Monaco circuit is a throwback to a different era and its golden age was last century. With the modern cars now so big, this narrow, sinuous layout just isn’t suitable for Formula 1 racing. The reality is that the ‘race’ is just cars circulating and trying not to crash or break down. Overtaking is all but impossible and even the DRS zone is very weak here. Perhaps we should have a new slogan for this race, Ils ne passeront pas.
It remains a great test of driver skill as mistakes are very harshly punished. The track is lined by unforgiving barriers and there is very little margin for error. The drivers enjoy the challenge, but for the TV audience, it is a poor spectacle. The unforgiving nature of the track can produce drama, but not in a racing sense.
Qualifying Key
The real action takes place in qualifying. The driver on pole position has a very good chance of winning the race. 70% of the last 20 races have been won from pole position and none from outside the top 3. Last year Charles Leclerc was the fastest qualifier but failed to take the start after his car was found to be terminally damaged after he crashed in qualifying. That left Verstappen to become the defacto pole sitter and he won the race. Something similar happened in 2001 when Coulthard was not able to start from pole and Schumacher won from an inherited pole.
Looking at a driver’s record here is important as having a proven track record is a big plus. However, of this current crop, there is nobody that jumps out as having an outstanding record. There are no Senna’s, Schumacher’s, Prost’s or Hill’s. They won 20 Monaco races between them, but on this year’s grid we have Hamilton as the winning most driver with three, Vettel and Alonso with two each, with Verstappen and Ricciardo one each.
No Dominant Driver
In the modern turbo-hybrid era, Hamilton has won two, but he was bested by Nico Rosberg who won three as his teammate. Hamilton fans can rightly point out that Mercedes have built long wheelbase cars which are far from ideal on this track, but Rosberg was driving the same machine.
Vettel has been runner up five times to go with his two wins, and of the younger drivers, Gasly has done well, always in the top 7 in modest machinery. Norris got a podium on his second visit last year. Carlos Sainz has his usual record of steady consistency, always in the top 10, unlike his teammate.
Charles Leclerc is yet to score a point and has a bit of a habit of stuffing it in the wall. He set the fastest qualifying lap last year but crashed on his second run, ruining Sainz’ chances of stealing it from him as the yellow flags meant anyone on their final run had to abort.
Max Verstappen also has a crashing habit here, failing to set a time in qualifying twice, but he has improved with experience, and it is a track that you must show respect to. It remains to be seen if Leclerc can reign in his aggressive style in qualifying, but still be able to take the all-important pole position.
Turbo-Hybrid Era
It may be more useful to look at drivers’ qualifying performances since the start of the turbo-hybrid era.
Hamilton has had two pole positions but again, never dominated his teammates. Ricciardo also has two poles, Leclerc one. Sainz has been steady and always top 8, and Vettel only once outside the front two rows. Gasly has always made Q3 and twice been on the third row.
So far in 2022, Charles Leclerc is comfortably the fastest qualifier with four poles and two second places. Verstappen has one pole and three second places, Sainz a second and three thirds, with Perez getting one pole and one third.
Barcelona Form Guide
Traditionally, looking at who was quick in the slow, fiddly third sector in Barcelona has been a good guide as to who will have a car well suited to the demands of Monaco. It is a track with 19 corners and only the long tunnel can be called fast, and it really isn’t even a corner, the rest are slow, many painfully so. Good traction is much more important than power on what is the slowest and shortest lap in F1.
Last weekend we had the two Mercedes being fastest in Barcelona’s third sector during the race. However, the two Ferraris never got to do their thing as Sainz’ car was damaged, and Leclerc retired before running on lower fuel/fresh tyres.
Qualifying pace in sector three is a better guide and it was the two Ferraris who were first and second. Leclerc was 0.08 faster than Verstappen in third place (Perez fifth). Bottas was fourth fastest. 0.11 off Leclerc and the Mercedes seventh and ninth, with Norris splitting Russell and Hamilton respectively (+0.36 and +0.49). Kevin Magnussen was sixth.
It looks very much like advantage Ferrari for this weekend, but as ever, Verstappen is right on them. His problem is that his superior race pace is a much less potent weapon on this layout.
2022 Monaco GP: Advantage Ferrari
So long as Ferrari can have a clean race, and that is not a given, it looks good for Ferrari to make inroads into Red Bulls lead. The concern is that Leclerc’s Monaco weakness trips him up again. He is a native Monégasque and really wants to win his home race. In the past he has pushed too hard and paid the price. This year, he has the best car for qualifying, and is more mature. It is a track where you need to hustle the car the get the best lap and he hasn’t got a big enough margin over Verstappen to have a leisurely lap and keep it clean.
Carlos Sainz could be in a good position should Leclerc cock things up again. However, he is lacking in confidence and is still finding the car tricky to drive. This is not a track where you want to be lacking confidence.
If the two Ferrari drivers fail to capitalise then Verstappen looks well poised to take advantage. He seems to have put his Monaco crashing days behind him and his Red Bull isn’t far off Ferrari over a lap.
Leclerc A Logical Choice
Logic says that Charles Leclerc will get his first home race win. The biggest threat may be himself. He has to find a balance between being fast, but careful. Sainz, in the same car, has a chance but he is not inspiring much confidence so far in 2022.
Dark horses are rare here. Bad weather could mix things up, but otherwise this looks to be between the two Ferrari’s and Verstappen.
Rain Possible
The early forecast is not ruling out rain. Friday’s free practice sessions are at risk, with a 50% chances of morning showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Saturday is much the same with a 40% chance of showers in both the morning and afternoon. Sunday will see temperatures drop 4 or 5 degrees to 22 degrees and more importantly a wet morning.
The race starts at 3pm local time and the threat of rain has dropped to 55%. It is one of those hateful forecasts which only tells us that there is a chance that a shower may affect the track at any time over the weekend, but do not expect a proper full on, wet weekend.
2022 Monaco GP: Team by Team Preview
Taking a quick run through the teams, we can speculate on the likely pecking order on this idiosyncratic track.
Red Bull
Verstappen has qualified 3rd and 2nd here in the last two races having previously failed to set a time in 2018 and 2016. His average qualifying performance in 2022 is 2.33, but he has been out qualified by Leclerc 5-1. Sergio Perez’ average qualifying performance is 4.00, he has had one pole but that is his sole front row. The car’s competitive strength is its top speed and that is not going to be so potent here.
Ferrari
Charles Leclerc is the fastest qualifier in 2022 with four poles and never off the front row. Carlos Sainz has only made the front row once. Leclerc did qualify on pole here last year but on his final run, he crashed. That is his weakness here. He cannot afford to hit the barriers and it is not just here where he has parked his car in a wall. The Ferrari has great traction and that is very useful coming out of the multitude of slow corners here. Leclerc’s race to lose? I think so.
Mercedes
There is no doubt that Mercedes have made positive steps in the last two races. However, the narrative from some quarters after the Spanish race is overplaying it. Russell’s podium wasn’t his first in 2022 and all three of Mercedes’ podiums so far have coincided with one or more of the Ferrari and Red Bulls having retired. George Russell was still over 0.40 seconds off the pole time in Spain, Hamilton 0.76. In the relative pecking order, nothing changed, just that the gap shrunk a little.
Some observers have been banging on about Mercedes being good in slow corners, in which case they may be in better shape than at many tracks. Their race pace in Barcelona’s third sector was good, but not so much in qualifying, and qualifying is more important here than anywhere. Monaco has not been one of Mercedes’ traditional fortresses in the turbo-hybrid era and perhaps their revival may have to wait for another couple of weeks.
Toto Wolff says that his expectations for Monaco are lower than for any other circuit and that would seem to be a realistic comment.
McLaren
Ricciardo is something of a track specialist, but his confidence is at the back of the grid. His highest qualifying position in 2022 is sixth and his sector three performance in Barcelona was 0.53 off Leclerc in qualifying, and he was slowest of all in the race. Team boss, Zak Brown has now openly said that Ricciardo has not met expectations, and the pressure is on.
Lando Norris is recovering from tonsilitis and was ill whilst driving in Spain. He still caned Ricciardo. It is hard to fancy either driver this weekend.
Alfa Romeo
Bottas continues to impress in a car with some good qualities but poor reliability. He has qualified 8th or better in five of the previous six races and he was the fourth quickest driver through sector 3 in Barcelona qualifying. He looks well placed for another strong weekend, reliability permitting. Bottas never got pole here in his time at Mercedes and his race results were nothing to write home about. Any rain may improve his chances.
The team believe their strength lies in slow speed corners. ‘Our car is really good in slow speed corners’ said Bottas after the Spanish GP. He knows this is a very good chance to maximise his points scoring potential. That does not mean he is in the mix for a meritorious win, but he is a realistic contender for best of the rest this weekend.
Alpine
The car didn’t look great in sector three in Spain with Ocon 0.56 slower than Leclerc and Alonso further back still. Alpine are the most difficult team to call with their pace being all over the place, but there seems little reason to think that they will be doing much more than picking up some minor points.
Alpha Tauri
Much like Alpine, Alpha Tauri are just feeding off scraps, lacking the pace to be competitive. Gasly has a good record here and points are within his grasp, but they are hard to fancy for more than minor points.
Haas
Their bright start to the season is petering out and despite getting both cars into Q3 in Spain, they failed to score any points. Magnussen is the shining star, and he was sixth in sector 3 in qualifying in Spain and he might get a point if he can reach Q3 for the fifth time in 2002.
Aston Martin
They generated a lot of headlines in Spain but not much speed. Their latest upgrade is remarkably like the Red Bull but while it remains painfully slow, I dare say the story will remain on the back burner. Vettel has always gone as well as he can here, but there is little he can do with a poor car.
Williams
Favourites to fill the back row of the grid and there is no straw to grasp here.
Summary
Monaco is all about qualifying, track position and keeping it out of the barriers. The usual provisos about reliability apply, which does flag up some worries for both Ferrari and Red Bull. The attrition rate in Monaco can be high, very high, and that can allow the lesser teams pick up points, but the last three races here have only seen a solitary DNF in each.
On current form, Ferrari are the team to beat here. Max Verstappen will keep them honest and if Charles Leclerc is to land a historic home win, he will have to put in a faultless lap in qualifying, and that has not always been his best strength. He has the tools at his disposal and his qualifying performances in 2022 have been very strong.
If he can achieve pole position, the job is more than half done. His teammate, Carlos Sainz, has the same tools, but not the same confidence. His odds of 17.00 are eye catching and too big, and if Leclerc does stumble, he may take advantage, but with precision driving required, it seems Sainz is more likely to stumble.
2022 Monaco GP Ante Post Selections
2 points Charles Leclerc to be fastest qualifier at the 2022 Monaco GP @ 2.00 with SpreadEx, Betfair
2 points Charles Leclerc to win the 2022 Monaco GP @ 2.10 with SpreadEx, Betfred
While we have not seen a real surprise winner here for some time, there have been three modest surprises on the podium more recently. Last year Lando Norris qualified fifth and finished third, thanks, it must be said, to the non-starting Leclerc and retirement for Bottas who started second. In 2017 Ricciardo rose from 5th on the grid to finish third and in 2017 Sergio Perez finished on the podium having qualified 7th. Hardly shock results but they do offer up some hope to someone with car capable of qualifying on the third row.
Outside of the big two teams, we have had eight different drivers making the third row at some stage so far this season. Hamilton four times, Russell three times, Norris and Bottas twice, and once each for Alonso, Ricciardo, Ocon and Magnussen. Filtering that list through the third sector at Barcelona and Bottas and Magnussen stand out. Bottas was the fourth quickest in qualifying terms and with the required slice of luck he might join the roll of honour in terms of modest surprises.
