2022 Epsom Derby Day Preview and Tips – DS
2022 Epsom Derby Day Preview
Oaks day was a disaster from start to finish. Kessaar Power broke well but that was as good as it got. Corazon Espinado was a non-runner so at least we didn’t lose any money on him. Arctician didn’t stay the trip and Moon De Vega was put in a great position by Rossa Ryan but wasn’t good enough. Hopefully things go better tomorrow, 2022 Epsom Derby Day tips are below, including a runner by runner guide for the big one.
2.00 – Cazoo Handicap (Class 2)
A tricky start to Derby Day with this 10f handicap for the 3yos. Ian Williams has a good record with his runners at Epsom and with Richard Kingscote booked, Oneforthegutter is of interest on handicap debut. By Muhaarar, this fella scored on his debut at Haydock last year at 25/1 (6f gd). He proved that win was no fluke with two superb efforts in Listed and G3 company subsequently. On his final 2yo run he was sent off at just 9/1 in the Royal Lodge but he didn’t produce his best.
Oneforthegutter made his seasonal return at Sandown two weeks ago. In that Listed contest he was always nearer last than first but he kept on nicely for 4th and the handicapper dropped him to 100. That Sandown run suggested a step up in trip might suit and his dam won over 9f too. The booking of Kingscote is eye-catching. He was a close 4th on his only ride on this horse and he has an outstanding record for Ian Williams (46 wins/99 top 4s from 247 rides). At odds of 22/1, Oneforthegutter is the e/w selection.
2022 Epsom Derby Day Tips: Oneforthegutter e/w @ 22/1 NB (4 places)
2.35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3)
A field of 10 fillies will go to post for this 8.5f Group 3. The fav is Bashkirova for red hot Haggis and Tom Marquand. By Pivotal, this 4yo filly ran well over 8f at Goodwood last time when beat 0.5L in a Listed contest. However, that’s twice she has come up short in pattern company since winning her handicap last season and she is upped in Grade again here. Potapova represents the same owners and Ryan Moore rides for Michael Stoute. Her best run behind Saffron Beach gives her sound claims and she ran a blinder on her return at Kempton.
Of those at big odds, Rolling The Dice has one piece of form that gives her a place chance. Trained in Newmarket by Hilal Kobeissi, this daughter of Mehmas ran no sort of race on her return at York. She had wind surgery in the off-season and it can take a run for the horse to realise they can breathe again. She also fell out of the stalls and lost lots of ground at the start so Ben Curtis likely just minded her.
Her final run of 2021 saw her pitch up in the G2 May Hill at Doncaster. She was an 80/1 shot but she belied those odds with a huge run in 3rd. She was 5.5L behind the winner Inspiral and just 1.75L behind Prosperous Voyage, two top class performers. If she could reproduce that level of form, she could sneak into the money at odds of 66/1.
2022 Epsom Derby Day Tips: Rolling The Dice e/w @ 66/1 (4 places betfair)
3.10 – Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
Just the six will fight it out for £100k in prize money in this 8.5f Group 3. Modern News is the market leader for Buick and Appleby. He has progressed through the handicap ranks and he hacked up in a Listed heat at Windsor last time out. The son of Shamardal doesn’t know how to run a bad race and he is the one to beat, once the rain stays away.
Mutasaabeq could be the one to benefit if it does turn soft. He won a conditions race at Thirsk on soft on his reappearance and he followed that with a fine effort behind Lights On at Sandown (8f gd). Escobar ran okay in this last season and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he ran another good race. However, with just the six runners I’m happy to give this race a miss. No bet.
2022 Epsom Derby Day Tips: No Bet
3.45 – Epsom Dash Handicap (Class 2)
What a spectacle this is. The Epsom Dash is run over 5 furlongs and the 2012 winner, Stone Of Folca, set the world record for the fastest ever 5f when scoring for Luke Morris and John Best (53.69 secs). It is all about speed and with a maximum field of 20, a bit of luck will be required also. Mokaatil has won his last three over this C&D. The first of those came off 86 and he then won this last season off 82. He is in off 87 today but with Harry Davies’ 5lb allowance, he is effectively off the same mark. He has obvious claims but the bookies haven’t missed him this time.
Early Pace
Quite often this race can set up for a closer. There is a huge amount of potential early pace this year. Justanotherbottle, King of Stars, Fine Wine, Mid Winster and Live In The Dream all like to get on with things so I am going to take a punt on Mulzim for Mike Murphy and Shane Kelly. This horse has won 8 races, with seven of those coming on the all-weather at Southwell. He has yet to score on turf but he has run some huge races in defeat on grass.
He needs a bit of juice in the ground and on good ground last year he was narrowly beaten in a big handicap at York off 94. He was only 0.5L behind the winner Copper Knight and he had Mid Winster (1L) and Sunday Sovereign (3L) behind. Those two rivals re-oppose here and Mulzim is now 15lbs better off with Mid Winster (22/1 today) and 5lbs better off with Sunday Sovereign (14/1 today). Mike Murphy’s charge did run poorly on his return at Ascot but he likely needed it and the ground was too quick. Conditions should be perfect today and if he gets the gaps, Mulzim can outrun his odds of 50/1.
2022 Epsom Derby Day Tips: Mulzim e/w @ 50/1 (6 places) NAP
4.30 – 2022 Epsom Derby – Runner by Runner Guide (Group 1)
Changingoftheguard
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Odds: 8/1
Son of Galileo whose 2yo form was nothing to write home about. However, has won both starts this season in impressive fashion. Won a Dundalk maiden by 6L on his return (90 rated horse 9.5L back in 3rd). Last time out he won the Chester Vase by 6.5L (10.5f sft). Not much stamina on dam side of pedigree and would probably want the rain to come. Given connections he is entitled to respect but odds look a bit on the short side. Drawn wide in stall 16 too.
Stevos’ Star Rating: **
Desert Crown
Trainer: Michael Stoute
Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Odds: 9/4 Fav
Extremely promising son of Nathaniel is 2/2 so far. Landed a soft ground maiden at Nottingham last October (8.5f sft). Sole start this season saw him slam a solid field by 3.25L (Royal Patronage 2nd) in the Dante at York (10f gd). Not a huge amount of stamina on the dam side of his pedigree but Nathaniel a strong stamina influence. Drawn in stall 12 and won’t mind what the weather does. Obvious claims.
Stevos’ Star Rating: *****
El Habeeb
Trainer: Stan Moore
Jockey: John Egan
Odds: 250/1
Once raced rank outsider who was beaten 8L into 5th in a Listed heat on debut at Newmarket (10f gd/fm). Sire of little account but is at least a half-brother to the useful Gold Wand. Would be a monumental shock if he won.
Stevos’ Star Rating: *
Glory Daze
Trainer: Andy Oliver
Jockey: Ronnie Whelan
Odds: 150/1
Big priced Irish raider from shrewd yard. One good maiden run last season when 3rd at Navan (8f sft). Reappeared with dominant 10f Curragh maiden win (gd/yld) beating Cougar by 3.25L. Earned his place in the race with a fine effort when 5.5L 2nd to Stone Age at Leopardstown (10f gd). Definitely not bred for this trip (by Cotai Glory) but stayed on well last time and if he can get to within 5.5L of Stone Age again he could sneak into the first 6 or 7.
Stevos’ Star Rating: **
Grand Alliance
Trainer: Danny Tudhope
Jockey: Charlie Fellowes
Odds: 100/1
Son of Churchill who is drawn in the car park in stall 17. Novice winner at Chelmsford in February and then followed up off 81 in a Doncaster handicap (10f gd). Ran a cracker in Listed trial for this race over C&D, finishing just 0.5L behind Nahanni (25s for this). On that evidence he looks overpriced but unlikely to be good enough to win, especially from that draw. A top 10 finish would be a good result.
Stevos’ Star Rating: **
Hoo Ya Mal
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: David Probert
Odds: 200/1
A son of Territories who represents the same connections as 2020 runner up Khalifa Sat (50/1). Yet to finish out of the first three in five starts but just one maiden win at York last season (7f gd). Shaped nicely in two runs this term, behind Native Trail at Newmarket (G3, 8f gd) and then beat 7L by Nations Pride in a Listed contest at the same track (10f gd). Could possibly close the gap to that rival over this extra 2f and has a nice draw in stall 3. One that could outrun his odds.
Stevos’ Star Rating: ***
Masekela
Trainer: Andrew Balding
Jockey: Jason Watson
Odds: 66/1
My ante-post selection for the 2000 Guineas but didn’t run. Finished 3.75L behind Eydon on his comeback at Newmarket (9f gd). Half-brother to an 11f winner and dam won over 12f so hopes he will stay this distance. Has some rock solid 2yo form in the book and his trainer has had horses run well in this at huge odds before. However, he obviously missed a week or two with his Guineas setback and that is not ideal. Nice draw in stall 8 but looks up against it.
Stevos’ Star Rating: **
Nahanni
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: Adam Kirby
Odds: 25/1
One of three for red hot Charlie Appleby. Apparent third string on jockey bookings but Kirby landed this race on an outsider for this yard last season. Scored in a Listed contest over C&D last time displaying a gutsy attitude. Now won his last three and has a great draw in stall 6. By Frankel, his dam is a half to Leger winner Mastery so will stay all day. The faster they go early, the better his chance will be and he is no forlorn hope.
Stevos’ Star Rating: ****
Nations Pride
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Odds: 7/1
Supplemented for the 2022 Epsom Derby after a wide margin Listed win at Newmarket. On a five timer after two all-weather wins and a good ground win at Meydan. William Buick’s choice and by a top class sire in Teofilo. Dam was a Listed winner and her dam was a G1 winner over 10f in France. Nicely drawn in stall 5 and should have no problems getting the trip. However, not sure about the quality of his form and his Meydan win has not worked out. Not much value at 7/1 but wouldn’t be surprised if he ran big.
Stevos’ Star Rating: ***
Piz Badile
Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Odds: 10/1
Thrice raced son of Ulysses who has won two of his three starts. Landed a Killarney maiden on debut before going close behind Duke De Sessa in a Leopardstown G3. Scored in a similar race on his seasonal comeback at the Curragh 10f gd, beating Buckaroo by a head. That horse won a Listed race next time but flopped in the Irish Guineas. Gavin Ryan jocked off in favour of Frankie. Grand-dam a half to Oaks winner Light Shift so bred for the job. Decent draw in stall 7 and interesting upped in trip.
Stevos’ Star Rating: ***
Royal Patronage
Trainer: Charlie and Mark Johnston
Jockey: Jason Hart
Odds: 33/1
By Wootton Bassett, we backed this fella for the 2000 Guineas. He failed to fire in that race but wasn’t disgraced behind Coroebus. Much better last time when finding just Desert Crown too good at York when upped to 10f (gd). A course winner on good to soft as a 2yo but best on rattling quick ground. Drawn to attack in stall 1 so it will be interesting to see if Hart goes from the front or whether he rides him to get the trip. Should stay on pedigree and a repeat of his last run would give him place claims. I just have a nagging doubt about the trip and I’m not sure he’ll stay. If he does, he could finish in the first 6.
Stevos’ Star Rating: **
Sonny Liston
Trainer: Charlie Hills
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Odds: 50/1
This son of Lawman has won one of his three starts, a 7f maiden at Sandown last July. Charlie Hills stepped him up in class on his return to action in April and he wasn’t disgraced behind Eydon at Newmarket (9f gd). He was keen and trapped wide at Chester last time so he did well in the circumstances to get to within 2.5L of Star Of India. The winner enjoyed a dream trip on the inner so on another day, Sonny Liston may have got even closer. He is 50s whereas the O’Brien horse is only 16s and that looks a wrong price. Bred for this trip and a lively outsider.
Stevos’ Star Rating: ***
Star Of India
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Seamie Heffernan
Odds: 16/1
Enjoyed nice passage at Chester when winning his trial for this race. Won his maiden at Leopardstown last October and then could never land a blow over a mile at Newmarket on his return. By Galileo so should stay the trip but is an awful lot of speed on the dam side of his page. It is always folly to write off any horse from Ballydoyle but they look to hold more pressing claims with Stone Age.
Stevos’ Star Rating: **
Stone Age
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Odds: 5/1
The mount of stable jockey Ryan Moore, this son of Galileo hasn’t seen a rival in two starts this season. He ended his 2yo career as a maiden but he had form at the top table. The winter break served him well and he reappeared with a 9L maiden win at Navan (10f gd) and a G3 win at Leopardstown (10f gd). However, there are big question marks about the quality of the form. He could only beat what was in front of him though and he was visually very impressive. Bred to stay and drawn well in stall 4.
Stevos’ Star Rating: ***
Walk Of Stars
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: James Doyle
Odds: 16/1
The third Godolphin representative and the second string on jockey bookings. Won a soft ground maiden at Nottingham on his second start (8.5f). Beat stablemate Hafit on return at Newbury (since beaten in a Listed race). Found just United Nations too good last time out in a Listed contest at Lingfield. Dam hails from an excellent family (Nathaniel) and is by a top quality sire in Dubawi. I’m not sure about the quality of his form and he’ll need to improve plenty. Soft ground would enhance his prospects.
Stevos’ Star Rating: **
Westover
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Jockey: Rob Hornby
Odds: 25/1
By Frankel and has won two of his four starts. Maiden win at Sandown followed by decent effort in class 2 conditions race behind Zechariah. Returned to action with fine effort at Pontefract (8f sft Listed) and then landed a G3 at Sandown by a head from Cash. 107 rated Goldspur 1L back in 3rd so is substance to the form. Progressive and full brother to a 12f winner so step up in distance should pose no problems. Well drawn in stall 2 and Rob Hornby retains the ride. Won’t mind rain and another interesting dark horse. Respected.
Stevos’ Star Rating: ***
West Wind Blows
Trainer: Simon and Ed Crisford
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
Odds: 33/1
Our ante-post e/w pick at 40s. Worn a hood for both starts. Is 2/2, landing a Newcastle novice in December then returning with a 5L all the way win carrying a penalty in a 10f Nottingham novice. Ran strongly through the line and should relish the extra two furlongs today. By a top sire in Teofilo and out of a French Oaks winner so bred to be a Champion. Drawn in 11 which isn’t too bad but if it rained heavily, it would be a worry. Once it is good to soft or better, he could run a huge race.
Stevos’ Star Rating: ****
2022 Epsom Derby day: The Verdict
At monstrous odds, Hoo Ya Mal and Sonny Liston both deserve a mention. However, the three that make the final shortlist are the fav Desert Crown, Nahanni and West Wind Blows. Stone Age just missed out due to the strength of his form on paper. Of those three, Desert Crown has the best form in the book and given his versatility regarding ground, he looks the most solid option. That is reflected in his odds though.
Nahanni is proven on the track, which is a plus, and he is also proven on easy ground over 12f. There are far worse 28/1 shots than him you could back. I’ve already made the case for West Wind Blows in my ante-post preview but now that the weather forecast has changed, my confidence in him is not quite as high. At the odds, Nahanni represents solid e/w value but Desert Crown could be hard to beat.
2022 Epsom Derby day Prediction
- Desert Crown 9/4
- Nahanni @ 28/1 (back e/w 4 places)
- West Wind Blows @ 33/1 (already advised e/w @ 40s)
