Saturday Newcastle and Newmarket Tips – DS
Saturday Newcastle and Newmarket Tips
With the Irish Derby at the Curragh and the Northumberland Plate in England, it is a huge day on Saturday. We are going to cover all the live ITV races in this piece. We’ll also have a separate preview for the Curragh. Check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday Newcastle and Newmarket tips below.
1.50 Newcastle – Pertemps Network Handicap (Class 2)
A dozen will fight it out for the £15k prize in this 6f handicap sprint. It is absolutely wide open and you could make a case for plenty. In the hope that the return to Gosforth Park sparks a revival, I am taking a chance on Kind Review. Formerly trained by Tracy Waggott, he is now in the care of Tim Easterby.
To be fair to Waggott, she did an excellent job with this son of Kodiac. He won eight races for her, the last one coming on his final start for the yard at Southwell in December. On his first two runs for Easterby, he wasn’t beaten far over 6f and then 7f at Southwell off 89. After a two month break he returned with a poor run at Doncaster, beat a distance again off 89.
He has been freshened up again and after three runs, Tom Eaves is back in the plate for the first time since he won at Southwell. On his last run at Newcastle over this trip he was beaten 0.5L off a mark of 82. He is still 5lbs higher today but he has won off 87 in the past and he is only 3lbs higher than he was for his last win. His C&D form figures read 419253202, at odds of 20/1 hopefully he can nick some place money tomorrow.
Saturday Newcastle and Newmarket Tips: Kind Review e/w @ 20/1 (4 Places)
2.05 Newmarket – Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
A tricky Listed contest for the juvenile fillies and another 12 runner field. We backed Your Spirit first time up at Beverley in the Hilary Needler and he ran a massive race in 3rd. The two horses that beat him had way more experience so he did well to get to within 3L of them. On that occasion he was held up in mid division but next time at York, he tried to make all. It was a brave effort but in the end Mersea was too strong and seasoned for him and he edged him out close to home.
On run style and pedigree, the step up to 6f should suit Your Spirit. I don’t think he is the type to make all and my hope is that Minnetonka and Miska go from the front and give him a pace to aim at. David O’Meara also runs Family Ties, the mount of stable jockey Danny Tudhope. He is retained by Clipper Logistics so he didn’t necessarily choose his mount over Your Spirit. Jack Mitchell is an able deputy and he was placed on the only other 2yo he has ridden for this yard. Hopefully, he can do the same again on this lad at odds of 25/1.
Saturday Newcastle and Newmarket Tips: Your Spirit e/w @ 25/1 (4 places coral)
2.25 Newcastle – Chipcase Stakes (Group 3)
I fancied Mondammej to run a massive race at Royal Ascot but he wouldn’t go into the stalls. This won’t be quite as electric an atmosphere so hopefully he’ll be on better behaviour. If he does go into the stalls, he has a huge place chance today. Anthony Brittain’s charge likes it at this venue. He won his novice here and in six subsequent starts he has never been beaten more than 2.5L. The stiff 6f suits his come from behind style and with Glen Shiel and Ebro River in the race, it should set up for him.
Last time out this horse ran a cracker at Haydock. He was only 2L behind Twilight Calls, runner up in the King’s Stand since. Previously, he stayed on really well over 5f in a G2 at Newmarket. Stepping back up in trip to 6f should suit him well and this is a lot easier than the Temple Stakes. If he refuses to load, we won’t lose any money. If he does go in, he is more than capable of running on late for place money at odds of 28/1.
Saturday Newcastle and Newmarket Tips: Mondammej e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
2.55 Newcastle – Northumberland Vase (Class 2)
At odds of 20/1, Haveyoumissedme looks in interesting contender for Iain Jardine and Midge Mullen. This 4yo son of Helmet has been running really well this season. He has improved with each start and he was only beat 1.75L off 84 in a valuable Haydock handicap (16f gd) last time out. Previously, he ran a blinder in the Chester Plate (18f gd) when staying on pleasingly for 5th off 85, beat just 3L for the win.
This horse has yet to win at further than 12f but he definitely stays this distance. His last visit to Newcastle resulted in a 1.25L victory over 12f off 74. His last win came on soft over 12f off 77 and he is in off 84 today. I think his last couple of runs more than proved he is capable off that rating and his trainer fired in a welcome winner during the week. I think 20/1 looks too big about Haveyoumissedme and he looks a solid e/w bet.
Saturday Newcastle and Newmarket Tips: Haveyoumissedme e/w @ 20/1 (5 places) NAP
3.15 Newmarket – Criterion Stakes (Group 3)
Just seven runners and not a race of interest from a betting perspective. No bet.
Saturday Newcastle and Newmarket Tips: No Bet
3.30 Newcastle – Northumberland Plate (Class 2)
I am sticking to my guns with Island Brave in the Pitmen’s Derby. We backed this horse last time out at Ascot but judging by how he was ridden by Silvestre De Sousa, he wasn’t there to win. This horse is best when either forcing the pace or when ridden cold and De Sousa did neither of those things. Instead, he had Island Brave prominent on the inside and he got outpaced in the closing stages.
It was still a fairly decent run, even if he only finished 10th. He was only 5L behind the winner Get Shirty and only 3L behind Okita Soushi in 3rd. Heather Main has booked Benoit De La Sayette for the ride and he takes off a very useful 5lbs. That means Island Brave is effectively running off 93, 4lbs lower than when beat just 2.25L into 4th in this race last season and 5lbs lower than he was for his last win at Haydock.
His handicap mark isn’t the only cause for optimism. He also has a fine record over this C&D. In 2018 he was 5th in this race off 100 and he won a conditions race in December 2020 too. He had Rainbow Dreamer 1L back in 3rd off level weights that day and he’s 5lbs better off with him today. After watching him at Ascot, this looks like it has been his main target and at odds of 20/1, he is worth backing e/w.
