Curragh Derby Meeting Sunday Tips – DS
Curragh Derby Meeting Sunday Tips
The less said about Saturday, the better. We move on swiftly and hopefully we can get back amongst the winners today. The rain finally arrived last night and it will be yielding at best today. Check out Dave Stevos’ Curragh Derby Meeting Sunday tips below.
1.40 – Irish EBF Maiden (2yo)
What a maiden this looks. There are some very nice pedigrees on show here but it will come down to who copes best in the easy conditions. The initial fav has been pulled so for the most part, all we have to go on is pedigree and trainer form. One that looks like it might handle the ground on breeding is the Mick Halford trained outsider, Imadpour.
This colt is by Le Havre and out of an Azamour dam. There have been three Le Havre/Azamour crosses to make the track so far and two of those like a bit of an ease in the ground. His dam liked nice ground but she is related to a soft ground winner and Le Havre has a decent 28% strike rate for winners to runners on soft. All the O’Brien horses are obvious dangers, as is the Tommy Stack colt. I wouldn’t be discounting Jessie’s horse either but at 40s, Imadpour is a speculative selection.
Curragh Derby Meeting Sunday Tips: Imadpour e/w @ 40/1
2.10 – Airlie Stud Stakes (Group 2)
The rain has to be a worry for Statuette. She ran out a ready winner on her debut here on good ground. The runner up (beat 3L) ran a lovely race next time out when 7th of 21 in the Queen Mary at the Royal Meeting. It is solid form, but will she be as good on easy ground? She is by Justify, who has yet to have a runner on soft. He is a son of Scat Daddy and his progeny are better on quick ground. However, her Pivotal dam, Immortal Verse, liked cut in the ground and connections will be hoping she has passed that on to her daughter.
Zarinsk is next best in the betting for in form Keane and Lyons. This daughter of Kodiac beat Olivia Maralda on her debut, but only by a neck. That win came on good to yielding but this filly’s pedigree suggests that she’ll be even better on fast ground. Kodiac’s winners to runners percentage on soft is 18% in comparison to 29% on good and 31% on good to firm. Like the fav, her dam won on soft so they’ll be hoping she follows in her mother’s hoofsteps.
Matilda Overpriced
Matilda Picotte looks a huge price at 18/1. On form, that looks way too big. This daughter of Sioux Nation made a huge impression over C&D on debut, scorching home on the yielding ground to beat Comhra by 2L. She looked like she had the race in the bag in a Naas G3 last time, only giving way in the last 50 yards. She raced far to freely in that contest and that probably cost her the win.
The winner of that race, Meditate, won extremely impressively at Royal Ascot. If Matilda Picotte had settled better at Naas, she’d either have beaten her or else got closer than the 1.5L she was behind the winner. Unlike the two at the head of the market she is proven on easy ground and Kieran Cotter’s speedy filly has a big chance.
Papilio Form Boosted
The form of Papilio’s debut win at this track was boosted by the runner up in the Railway Stakes here on Saturday. Jamie Spencer takes the ride on Fozzy Stack’s daughter of Starspangledbanner and she looked a very straightforward type when winning over C&D. She was held up just off the pace, she travelled into it well and she was pulling clear of Apache Outlaw at the finish.
No doubt this filly is going to get further in time but for now, a fast run 6f is ideal. With the trailblazer Matilda Picotte likely to go forward with Zarinsk, stamina could come into play and that will suit Papilio (as well as Comhra). The Bolger horse can’t be discounted, especially if it turns heavy, but after watching Apache Outlaw run so well in that Group 2 on Saturday, Papilio is the e/w pick at odds of 10/1.
Curragh Derby Meeting Sunday Tips: Papilio e/w @ 10/1
2.40 – 6f Handicap (0-95)
Nordic Passage’s connections will be thrilled with the overnight downpour. This fella is of big interest on his last start over C&D. That day it was yielding ground, just like it is today, and he ran a huge race to go down by a head to Stag Night off 82. He didn’t run to anywhere near that level at Naas the last twice but the return to this track is a massive positive. As an added bonus, his mark has dropped 3lbs back to 83.
This horse has a serious record at the Curragh on yielding. His form figures read 1012 and the two wins came off 85 over 6f and 91 over 5f. He wouldn’t want it any softer than yielding though so it is worth keeping a close eye on the weather. However, he is just too well handicapped to ignore at a track he loves and at odds of 40/1, Nordic Passage is worth backing for small stakes e/w.
Curragh Derby Meeting Sunday Tips: Nordic Passage e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
3.10 – Rockingham Handicap (0-105)
Another horse whose connections will be delighted with the deluge is Shelly Banks. By Fast Company, this fast filly landed a 5f contest at Tipperary on soft on her penultimate start. She is a speedy sort and she has run some nice races over C&D in the past. Eamon O’Connell is her trainer and she won a Premier Handicap (5f yld) for him at this track last season off just 74. She did it well too, by 3L, and she has likely been trained with this race in mind.
She beat Blind Beggar by 1.25L at Tipp off 81 and she is now 5lbs higher. Blind Beggar re-opposes today and even though she is 3lbs better off at the weights, I think Shelly Banks can uphold the form. She had a fair bit in hand in Tipp and was value for more than the final winning margin. The good to yielding ground wasn’t soft enough for Shelly Banks last time out (6f) and today’s 5f trip will suit her better. Her C&D form figures on soft/yielding read 212. With such a big pot on offer today, surely Seamie will be doing his best. At odds of 33/1, she is the each way selection.
Curragh Derby Meeting Sunday Tips: Shelly Banks e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) NAP
3.45 – Pretty Polly Stakes (Group 1)
The UK raiders look to hold a strong hand in this G1 for the fillies. However, the one I am backing now she is back on easier ground is Tranquil Lady. Joseph O’Brien’s horses are flying and this filly can be forgiven her poor run behind Tuesday at Epsom last time. The trip/ground were against her and she should be a lot more at home over 10f on yielding ground at the Curragh.
Her prep run for the Oaks saw her hack up over 10f in a G3 at Naas (yld/sft). She had 4L to spare over Lily Pond and she got to within 2.5L of Rosscarbery on her next outing in Cork. So, on that form line, Tranquil Lady should have the measure of the Twomey horse. She also ran well on her only previous visit to this track (2nd ahead of G1 placed Sunset Shiraz). Dylan Browne McMonagle reclaims the ride after being jocked off at Epsom so he’ll feel like he has a point to prove. The two Haggas horses are feared most but at 14/1, Tranquil Lady is the each way selection.
Curragh Derby Meeting Sunday Tips: Tranquil Lady e/w @ 14/1
4.20 – Ragusa Handicap (0-100)
Another horse who is going to appreciate the underfoot conditions is Golden Twilight. By Dawn Approach, this lad is at his best with an ease in the ground. He is still relatively unexposed on soft ground after just two starts on it. He won his maiden over 10f on yielding ground at this track. Halford’s charge also ran a cracker in Cork on yielding to soft on his turf handicap debut/seasonal return off 84.
In that race he was only beaten 2.25L for the win and I expected a big run from him next time in a valuable handicap at this track. However, he didn’t seem to enjoy the better ground and he trailed in well beaten. The step up to 12f is going to suit (2x winner at the distance at Dundalk) and he is now 2lbs lower (and fitter) than when beaten at Cork. He is 1/1 at the Curragh on yielding ground and the tongue tie is back on. At odds of 16/1, Golden Twilight is the each way selection.
