Saturday Sandown and Haydock Tips – DS
Saturday Sandown and Haydock Tips
We have had worse days than last Sunday, though it could have been better. Imadpour travelled like the best horse in the race, he just didn’t get home. He is one to watch. Papilio ran no race and it was a Seamie special on Shelley Banks. Thankfully, Nordic Passage ran on very well for 2nd at 40s and he might have won if the gap came earlier. Tranquil Lady went way too fast too early and faded. We at least finished with a place with Golden Twilight (NB) who drifted to 20s. Check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday Sandown and Haydock tips below.
1.50 Sandown – Coral Charge (Group 3)
An interesting start to the day at Sandown with this G3 Sprint. A few of the also rans from the King’s Stand pitch up here but the market leaders are Mitbaahy and Raasel for Varian and Appleby. Mitbaahy gets a weight for age allowance and he looks a rapid improver. His three runs this year have been excellent, culminating in a 1.5L win in the Scurry over today’s C&D last time out (gd). This will be his first go against the older sprinters and it’ll be fascinating to see how he gets on. The fast ground should be fine for him today.
Raasel also produced a clear career best on his last outing. He has won two of his last three and at Haydock he lowered the colours of G1 winner Dragon Symbol in a Listed contest. Rattling quick ground is an unknown for this 4yo son of Showcasing but he has won plenty on good so he should be fine on it. Like Mitbaahy, he’ll be held up for a late run so they’ll be hoping the race is run at a good pace. Unfortunately for those two, that looks unlikely.
Method Could Make It
The majority of the runners in this race are usually held up. One horse who has won when prominent and who tried to make all last time is Method. Trained by Martyn and Freddie Meade, this son of Mehmas had an excellent 2yo campaign. Last season never really took off for him but he showed obvious signs of promise on his comeback run at Salisbury (6f gd/fm).
He tried to make all that day under Rob Hornby and he showed plenty of speed before giving way in the final furlong. Still, he was only beat 2.75L in 4th and he ought to strip much fitter now. He was only 1.75L behind 113 rated Ayr Gold Cup winner Nahaarr off levels so it was a good effort. Tom Marquand takes over now and he is 7/49 with 23 top 4s when riding for Meade. If Marquand can nick a soft lead, Method could put it up to these and at 10/1, he is the e/w pick.
Saturday Sandown and Haydock Tips: Method e/w @ 10/1
2.05 Haydock – bet365 Handicap (Class 2)
Speycaster is the one I like in this 14f handicap. Rossa Ryan rides this son of Highland Reel for Ralph Beckett and he looks well handicapped off 81. This 3yo made a low key debut when running down the field at Sandown (8f sft). He left that well behind on better ground next time out at Bath when staying on well to finish 3rd, 1.25L behind the now 86 rated Sheer Rocks.
It was 3rd time lucky for Beckett’s charge at Chelmsford (8f) where he beat Deauville Legend by 0.5L. He was subsequently beaten a head off 95 in the King George V at Royal Ascot. On his seasonal return at Nottingham Speycaster stepped up to 10f (gd/sft) and he ran a cracker off 82 behind Al Qareem, staying on well for 3rd, beat 4L. The winner was racing off 81 and has since won off 89 and is now rated 96.
You have to forgive Speycaster a poor run last time at York (12f) but he has been gelded since. Maybe his mind wasn’t fully on the job at York because he has shown more than enough ability to be competitive off today’s rating. His half brother Atzeco has won in stakes company at 14f/15f so this trip today should suit and at odds of 16/1, Speycaster is worth backing each way.
Saturday Sandown and Haydock Tips: Speycaster e/w @ 16/1 (4 Places B365)
2.25 Sandown – Coral Challenge Handicap (Class 2)
The one that stands out as being extremely well treated here is Trais Fluors. Mick Channon’s horses are in good form and this horse’s mark has slipped to 85 after four runs this season. By Dansili, this 8yo isn’t getting any younger but he has shown this season already that he still retains plenty of ability. Just two runs ago he was beat less then 2L at Redcar off 87 and just over a year ago, he landed a decent C&D handicap off 92 for Silvestre De Sousa.
Connections had a crack at this race subsequently but he had to race off 97. He was only beat 6L so he wasn’t disgraced and I would imagine Channon has had a repeat bid in mind for some time. On this occasion, Trais Fluors will be in off 85, 7lbs lower for his win here last season. Good to firm ground is perfect and he shaped nicely enough last week at Windsor (beat 3L off 87). The assessor has given Trais Fluors a big chance, let’s hope he takes it at 14/1.
Saturday Sandown and Haydock Tips: Trais Fluors e/w @ 14/1 (4 places W Hill) nb
2.40 Haydock – Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
With Invite a non-runner only 7 will go to post in this G2. Nell Quickly looks a bit overpriced in comparison to Sea La Rosa on their meeting last time but with just two places available, I’ll sit this race out. No Bet.
Saturday Sandown and Haydock Tips: No Bet
3.00 Sandown – Coral Distaff (Listed)
We have backed Arion twice already this season to no avail. I am convinced she is up to earning black type and no doubt she’ll go and get it today now I am abandoning her. However, at odds of 40/1 I am going to take a chance on the outsider of the field, Loch Lundie. Trained by Kevin Philippart De Foy, this very nicely bred daughter of Shamardal got off the mark in fine style last time out in a Thirsk novice (8f gd). It was something of a surprise given her first two runs but there was no fluke about the manner of victory.
The 3.5L third came out of that race and beat an 87 rated hotpot on her next outing, so there is substance to the form. That suggests that a rating of 81 underestimates this filly, and that is often the case with Ahmad Al Shaikh’s horses. Hoo Ya Mal and Khalifa Sat both placed in the Derby for him at monstrous odds and I am hoping for more of the same with this filly.
She is bred to be useful. Her sire is top drawer and she is out of a half-sister to G1 winner Lyric Of Light. The trip and ground should suit her well and while a few of these have achieved more, this filly had plenty left in the tank when winning at Thirsk and there could still be a sizable chunk of improvement to come. Heredia is going to be hard to beat but Oscula is yet to win at 8f, Fast Attack may need softer ground and at odds of 33/1, hopefully Loch Lundie can sneak into the frame.
Saturday Sandown and Haydock Tips: Loch Lundie e/w @ 33/1 (4 places W Hill)
3.15 Haydock – Old Newton Cup (Class 2)
My e/w NAP of the day goes in this £150k handicap. Jennie Candlish is a trainer better known for her exploits over the jumps but I think she has a right chance of landing this lucrative pot with It’s Good To Laugh. This dual purpose performer has already earned black type over timber. He is arguably even better on the flat and it looks to me as though he has been primed for this contest.
Freshened up after a couple of runs over hurdles in March, he made his return in the Chester Cup off 94. A slow start cost him any chance but he still ran on well at the finish to nab 7th, beat 7L. Dropped back to 16f at the same track next time, he ran another lovely race despite meeting interference. He still finished ahead of Spirit Mixer, subsequently a close second to Trueshan in the Pitmen’s Derby.
Last time over 13f at York, Graham Lee found as much trouble as humanly possible, despite seeming to have a dream run up the inner. It’s Good To Laugh stayed on very takingly once in daylight and after that run, the handicapper only gave him 1lb back. Candlish has enlisted crack 5lb claimer Harry Davies for the ride so her charge will be effectively off 87, 3lbs lower than for his last win. He was beat a nose over 12f on his only flat run at this track, was placed in a Listed Hurdle on his only jumps run here and at odds of 16/1, he is well worth backing each way.
Saturday Sandown and Haydock Tips: It’s Good To Laugh e/w @ 16/1 NAP (5 places)
3.35 Sandown – Coral Eclipse (Group 1)
In my stats based preview earlier this week it boiled down to four candidates. Vadeni, Native Trail, Alenquer and Lord North were the last horse’s standing. Bay Bridge was discounted because he has never won a G2 or G1. Mishriff was discounted because he has failed to win this season. I had Alenquer winning, Lord North 2nd with Vadeni and Native Trail 3 and 4 in that order. At the time Lord North was 28/1 for 3 places so I hope some of you took a chance ante-post.
The two 3yos are very talented animals and in receipt of weight, it would be no surprise to see them finish 1-2. However, Vadeni has never encountered ground as quick as it will be this Saturday at Sandown and this will be Native Trail’s first try at beyond a mile. Vadeni has won on good so he should be fine but you can never be certain until they go and do it.
Stamina Doubts?
Native Trail’s pedigree does offer hope on the dam side that he’ll stay. However, Oasis Dream has a strike rate of over 40% winners to runners at 5f to 9f, and that drops to 24% from 10f-11f. In saying that, it did look like he might benefit from further when winning the Irish Guineas so I can see why Appleby is giving it a shot. It is just a very tough race to be trying it for the first time.
Bay Bridge came unstuck at Ascot but he was beaten by a solid horse. He ticks the course form book having dotted up in a G3 here in May. Mostahdaf didn’t do that form any harm in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot, finishing an excellent 2nd to Broome. Dubai Future also franked the form by hacking up in the Wolferton by 3L. He is no forlorn hope at 4/1.
Top Table Form
Alenquer is another with rock solid form at the top table. He has won two of his last three, including when taking the scalps of High Definition, State Of Rest, Lord North and Broome at the Curragh last time out (10.5f gd). He was humbled by Mishriff at York last season but I think he is a much stronger horse this year. Rattling quick ground is a worry but his form does not equate with him being a 9/1 poke. Definitely overpriced.
Mishriff is a serious operator on his day but has his day passed? He has now won just one of his last four starts and he could only finish 3rd of 4 in this race last season. Lord North is a year older but he is still a top class horse. You can forget his last run at Ascot due to Dettori’s blunder and he only has 1.75L to find with Alenquer from their meeting at the Curragh. He landed a G1 two runs ago at Meydan and even though the 28s is gone, 25s is still alright. The faster the ground, the better and with James Doyle in the plate, Lord North is the e/w selection.
