2022 Austrian GP Preview

The British GP was a very entertaining one, but a very expensive one. There is always one race in a season which goes completely tits up, and Silverstone was one of those. Let’s hope the 2022 Austrian GP goes better.

2022 Austrian GP

This weekend’s race comes from the chocolate box setting of the Austrian mountains of Styria. A visual treat, but The Red Bull Ring is a great little racetrack. This a go-kart track compared to Silverstone but is fairly similar in its demands on the car. It is a fast, flowing track, features just seven corners worth the name, it is a short lap, a 71 lap race and features two long straights.

The lap is characterised by the long uphill climb into a tight right hander, the scene of many collisions, before heading downhill into another tight right hander and then a series of sweeping curves back down the hill to the long start – finish straight. Despite being a short lap, it is power sensitive and is a test for the power units, especially as the air is a bit thin at the elevation of around 700 metres. While this is no Mexico City in terms of elevation, it is the third highest track on the calendar. Thus, the Honda power units have had an advantage over the others in thin air in the past.

Unpredictable Weather

Being situated in the mountains, the climate can be a bit unpredictable. It can get very hot in the summer, but it can also be very wet. Any low cloud can restrict the ability of the medical helicopter to take off, which in turn means no racing until the cloud lifts.

The weather forecast for this weekend will keep everyone on their toes. It will be largely sunny and warm but the threat of showers, especially thunderstorms, are ever present. Mostly on Sunday with a 40% chance of showers and 25% of thunderstorms, although those percentages have shrunk in the last couple of days.

The Silverstone circuit may be a reasonable guide to who will go well, but the British GP wasn’t. The race fell into the mad category and while it was exciting and entertaining, it was chaotic, starting with a wet qualifying session and finishing with six different teams in the top six, separated by 12 seconds. It would be nice to think that we have a season where six teams are in the fight for a race win, but we are not.

Midfield Pecking Order Unclear

If we have a mad race, it is best to look at qualifying for a form guide. However, we can’t really do that for Silverstone as it was a wet session, and the fastest driver didn’t get pole. We then go back to qualifying in Montreal, but that was wet as well. The raw recent form is a bit misleading. With a lot of the teams putting upgrades on their car at Silverstone, the pecking order, especially in the midfield, is a bit confusing.

Red Bull are leading both championships and there is no disputing that they remain the team to beat. Verstappen was looking very good for pole position until the rain came. Even in the rain, he looked nailed on for pole, but his last run was hampered by Leclerc spinning, causing a yellow flag and he missed the chance.

In the race he made a great start, beating Sainz off the line and was leading before it was red flagged on the first lap. He then had to start all over again and Sainz made sure to cover him next time. However, Verstappen took the lead and was looking comfortable.

Debris

He then hit some debris dropped from the clashing Alpha Tauris. A substantial piece of body work got wedged under his car and he was driving a very limited car from then on in. Sergio Perez got hit by Leclerc on the opening lap of the restart and had to pit for a new wing. From last on track, he finished second, raced very well and underlined that the Red Bull is the best package and favourites to win again this weekend.

Ferrari got pole position and the race win with Carlos Sainz. He was surprised when he got pole because he knew he wasn’t the quickest. He won the race but wasn’t the quickest. Sainz won the race because he was strong enough to tell the Ferrari pit wall that he was going for the win after Ferrari contrived to miss a golden opportunity. Sainz was on new softs with ten laps to go, Leclerc on used hard tyres, and Ferrari thought they could win it with Leclerc.

The chasing cars where all on new softs and the truth was that Leclerc drove brilliantly against the odds. However, it was inevitable that he was going to get passed and fourth place was as good as he could do. He was able to delay Perez and Hamilton, helping Sainz to win, but left to the pit wall, we would have seen a different winner. The Ferrari looks to be second best to Red Bull, and they may not even have a one lap pace advantage anymore.

Lucky Podium

Mercedes got another podium, but again it was fortuitous. They needed Verstappen to be effectively out of the race and Ferrari to run a poor strategy for Leclerc. Their upgrade did work, and they have closed the gap to the big two, but realistically, they might be more of a problem for Ferrari than Red Bull. Podium contenders if there are problems for the big two, but ready to get podiums on merit? Not just yet.

Then we are into the midfield. The table says that McLaren are fourth, and Alpine fifth, separated by just six points. The reality for McLaren is that they scored 39 points in the first four races, despite drawing a blank in the first. In the last six races they have scored 26. Alpine have scored 45 points in the last six races. The momentum is with the Anglo-French outfit, and they were happy with their big upgrade at Silverstone.

Unfortunate Ocon

Of course, when we went big on Ocon, he lost battery power in qualifying, ending up 15th. Despite fighting his way back into 7th place in the race, he had to retire with a broken gearbox. But for that, Alpine would be fourth in the table and in reality, they are the fourth best team. They are a two driver team, whilst McLaren are effectively relying on Norris to score their points. McLaren are confident that this track will suit their car and Norris is one to watch out for this weekend. Alpine are equally optimistic and there should be a good battle between the two teams.

Then we have a drop to Alfa Romeo in sixth place, 16 points off Alpine’s 67. They remain a very hard team to get a grip on. They had a poor pre-season, with a lack of running due to unreliability and that trend has followed them all season. Alfa have had a total of six DNF’s, compared to three for Alpine and two for McLaren. They suffered their first double DNF last weekend but it was no fault of Zhou that he ended up going down the starting straight on his head.

The Punt Pound Factor

Carrying the Punt pound can bring great woe upon drivers, and so it was for Zhou. Bottas however, was running well before his gearbox gave up. The Alfa Romeo is a fragile beast and backing them does carry a higher degree of risk than is true of most. They have decent potential but are never far from a DNF.

Alfa Romeo are well clear of Alpha Tauri who are on 27 points and have scored just 11 points in the last six races, and ten of those came in Azerbaijan. 2022 is turning out to be a disappointing season for a team who usually punch well above their weight. Gasly has only manged one points scoring finish in the last seven races.

Aston Martin Momentum

Haas’ unlikely double points finish at Silverstone kept them above Aston Martin. However, there is just two points between them, and the momentum is with Aston Martin. They have enjoyed four consecutive points finishes, three from Vettel. They are not fully competitive, but their form since the Red Bull style upgrade in Spain is baring some fruit.

Aston Martin had more new parts at Silverstone but didn’t get as much free practice time to assess them as they wanted due to weather and a floor problem. They will be another team desperate to gather more data. They have struggled in the last two qualifying sessions, and they will be hoping for a dry weekend.

Haas have yet to drop an upgrade and require a high attrition rate race to add to their tally.

Williams’ Woes

Williams introduced their upgrade at Silverstone, but we really didn’t have much chance to rate it. Qualifying was wet and Albon was the other big first lap casualty in the race. The Curse of the Punt pound doing for him as well. It was a significant upgrade as there were more new parts were on the car than old ones. The car sported Red Bull style sidepods, a new floor, new wings, engine cover, diffuser and suspension.

Sadly, Albon’s car didn’t reach the first corner and was quite badly smashed up. The team say they have ‘replaced or repaired much of the car.’ This race will be more about learning about the new package than realistically going for points. With limited free practice time on Friday, this is not an ideal situation, but they have to crack on. There is no word on any upgrade for Latifi.

2022 Austrian GP: Driver Records

Given the dominance of Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton in the Turbo Hybrid era, which coincided with the return of this circuit to the calendar, it is noticeable that their record here was below par. There have been ten races, two in 2020 and 2021 with one being called Austrian GP, the other the Stryian GP, and Mercedes won six, but only two went to Hamilton. Bottas and Rosberg picked up two each. Max Verstappen is the winning most driver here with four. The track is owned by Red Bull, and this is an important event for them.

Hamilton, Bottas and Verstappen are the only three past winners in the field. Mercedes and Red Bull are the only two winning teams. Ferrari have hit the post a couple of times with Leclerc a two-time runner up and Vettel once.

Fond Memories For Lando

Lando Norris has fond memories of the track. He scored his first podium finish here in 2020 and set the fastest lap of the race. He was also third here last year and has never been worse than sixth from his five starts. Valtteri Bottas is a two-time winner and has five other podium finishes. That was in his days at Mercedes, but he did score a podium with Williams, who had the advantage of Mercedes power in the first year of the turbo hybrids. There is nobody else whose record stands out as a suggestion of a special affinity with the track.

The driver starting on pole position has won five of the nine races here and all ten from the front two rows. The attrition rate here is in line with Silverstone at 3.33 per race. It has been as high as seven in 2020 and as low as zero in 2019. The kerbs have been car breakers and collisions at the tight turn at the top of the hill has seen plenty of incidents.

Ante Post Selections

The worry about drivers taking grid penalties remains and placing ante post bets remains additionally risky.

This weekend sees the return of the Sprint race. That changes the schedule for the weekend. There is a one hour free practice session on Friday, followed by ‘normal’ qualifying to set the grid for the sprint race on Saturday which will set the grid for Sunday’s race. I am not a great fan of the sprint race weekends. Yes, you get two races, but do we want two races? It is a gimmick to keep promoters happy, but does it really add to the show? We might get a mixed up grid if drivers have a bad sprint race, but it is a bit artificial.

We have had one of the three sprint races planned of 2022, that was at the Emilia Romagna GP back in April. In the ‘Normal qualifying,’ Carlos Sainz crashed in Q2 but was still tenth fastest. He was able to recover that to fourth in the sprint race. Had it just been the normal qualifying that counted, the grid would have been more mixed up which underlines the pointlessness of the whole thing.

Mercedes Could Benefit

I cannot see any reason to think the sprint race will make any great difference to the weekend. If anyone can benefit from it, it would be Mercedes. They do struggle to get the tyres warmed up, which isn’t great for qualifying and explains why they have a better race pace than qualifying pace. The upside for them is they can get more life out of the tyres over a race so a sprint race should be better for them. It wasn’t at Imola, but the car was a bucking bronco back then.

Mercedes are not expecting to be at their best in Austria. The straights will be fine but the tight corners not so much. They, and others, believe that we will see them much more competitive in France. This track may well produce more porpoising than we saw at the ultra-smooth Silverstone track and that is a plus for Red Bull compared to their nearest challengers.

Red Bull Favourites

What is clear is that Red Bull are the favourites, and they will be looking for a 1-2 finish at their ‘home’ race. The track lay out has not always suited their car, but with the power deficit to Mercedes and Ferrari a thing of the past and their prodigious straight-line speed in 2022, this track now looks very suitable.

Verstappen has won five of the last seven 2022 races, four of the last six races here and he now has the best car in the field at his disposal. The crowd are mostly Dutch Verstappen fans and while Hamilton had the crowd on his side last weekend, it is Verstappen’s turn this time. He is an odds on shot but should be shorter.

2022 Austrian GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the Austrian GP @ 1.91 with Betvictor, Skybet

Ferrari should be next best. Carlos Sainz will be chuffed to have finally got his first win, less chuffed by having to tell the team’s strategists that they were wrong, and Leclerc will just be pissed off that the same strategists screwed up his race. Only Ferrari can get a fortuitous win and make everyone unhappy. Another good haul of points is likely, but Verstappen will be a tough nut to crack. The last four races here have seen just one podium finish for Ferrari so it has been a happy hunting ground and I wouldn’t bank on an error free weekend for the red cars.

Leclerc has been the man to beat in qualifying in 2022. The six dry qualifying sessions he has scored five pole positions. Verstappen should have got pole at Silverstone, and he did in Canada but has the Red Bull now got the one lap pace to beat Ferrari in qualifying in the dry? I will hold fire on this one.

Leclerc Stock Falling

The podium has been most visited by Verstappen with six wins and a third. Leclerc has only made the podium four times, less than Sainz and Perez with six apiece. Leclerc’s stock has fallen quite dramatically in the last five races. He has scored just 34 points, compared to 73 for Sainz.

The Mercedes pair have had three each, with a best of third place. Hamilton has made the last two podiums and maybe the new upgraded car is more to his liking. Russell had enjoyed scoring the lion’s share of Mercedes points and finishing ahead of Lewis in seven of the ten races. He remains 18 points ahead and it will be interesting to see if he can continue to be a thorn in Hamilton’s side, or whether the upgrade has helped Hamilton find his mojo.

Hamilton was never able to dominate his teammates here. Bottas was 4-3 in the Austrian H2H’s, Rosberg 2-1. Perhaps Russell can continue that trend?

Norris Could Go Well

The top 6 should be the Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes pairings, but that has only happened once so far in 2022. Lando Norris has been the most regular interloper into the top 6 with four, including the only podium finish outside of the big three teams. On a track on which he has gone so well on in the past, five top six finishes from five starts, and with the team optimistic that the McLaren should go well again, he makes enough appeal for a bet.

The Alpines will be a threat and he will likely need some attrition ahead of him, but there has been plenty of that in 2022. Norris is a best priced 2.38 to finish in the top 6, but he can be backed, to small stakes no doubt, to be Ladbrokes ‘best of the rest’ at a boosted 4.00. Rather than 2 points on the top 6, I will split it between best of the rest and top 6.

2022 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to finish in the top 6 @ 2.38 generally available

2022 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to be best of the rest (price boost) @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

In terms of getting a points finish, I will once more return to the underrated Esteban Ocon. It was Sod’s Law that we went big on him last week and he was dealt a poor hand. There was nothing wrong with his pace and but for the broken gearbox, he was heading for another comfortable top 10 finish. He is seven from ten in terms of top 10s to starts and he has had three top 8 finishes here from six. He remains a value bet.

2022 Austrian GP Tip: 3 points Esteban Ocon to finish in the points @ 2.00 with Betfair, Betfred, Ladbrokes

Alpine are well placed for a double points finish. They have achieved just that in three of the last five and were unlucky not to make it four at Silverstone. It is technically breaking my rule not to back a driver twice, but rules are there to be broken, unless your Boris Johnson.

2022 Austrian GP Tip: 1 point Alpine to have a double points finish @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes

There may well be a 2022 Austrian GP qualifying bet on Friday afternoon for the ‘normal’ session.

-JamesPunt