Curragh and Newbury Saturday Preview and Tips – DS
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips
We didn’t find any winners last Saturday but a few nice places kept us ticking over. Positive Impact missed out on the win by a nose at 12/1. Venturous ran a huge race, defying a drift to 50s to nick 6th. Ropey Guest beat them all bar one, finishing a gallant 2nd at 16s. Chichester lost his race in the prelims and Double Or Bubble went agonisingly close to getting a place. Chocquinto was outclassed and of course, Mondammej got 2nd. It is Irish Oaks weekend at the Curragh and we also have decent action form the UK. Dave Stevos’ Curragh and Newbury Saturday preview is below.
1.50 Newbury – Steventon Stakes (Listed)
Not the greatest of starts to the day with this five runner 10f Listed contest. Cadillac ran really well on his first start for Kevin Philippart de Foy at Royal Ascot. He was beat 3L into 2nd in the Wolferton but the horses behind that have run since haven’t exactly boosted the form. Grocer Jack usually operates at a higher level than this. A Group 3 winner in October, he was also placed behind Skaletti in a G1 in July for his former trainer. His first two runs for William Haggas have been decent and this looks a good opportunity for him.
Desert Encounter is a grand old horse but he is entitled to need the run. Tasman Bay could probably do with a drop of rain and if I was having a bet, it would probably be on Finest Sound. He will relish the ground and the market has probably overreacted to his dire run at Epsom in June. However, just two runs ago he was 2nd in a Meydan G1 and a repeat of that would give him real claims here. With just 5 running I’m happy to give this race a miss though, no bet.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.21 Newbury – Gin Cup Stakes (Class 2)
Eight runners but again, a hard race to get excited about. We backed Gold Maze at Royal Ascot where he ran no race. His previous run on good at the same track would give him a place squeak here but he was a non-runner last time on account of good to firm ground. That’s the kind of surface we’ll be racing on today. He is the only double figure priced horse in this field and if seven run, it’ll only be two places for e/w players. Another race worth avoiding. No bet.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.35 Curragh – Scurry Handicap (Class 2)
Finally, a quality betting heat to get stuck into. The Scurry Stakes is always a very competitive heat and given how close he went for us in a Premier Handicap here in May, I am keeping the faith with Mickey The Steel. This 4yo son of Hot Streak runs from 3lbs out of the weights but with Wesley Joyce’s valuable 7lb claim he is effectively in off 76. At Naas, back in March (6f gd/yld) he was beat 0.5L off 78 by Lord Dudley. That horse was winning off effectively 81 and he landed a Premier Handicap on his next start.
Joseph Murray’s charge somehow remains a maiden after 21 starts but he has a nice pot in him. He’s the type of horse that needs a big field, straight track and a strong pace so I wouldn’t be too discouraged by his last two efforts at Listowel and Fairyhouse. He ran okay in both those races but the return to these sort of conditions is a massive plus for him. Urban Beat could be a danger with a good 5lbs claimer on but at 25/1, Mickey The Steel is the each way selection.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Mickey The Steel e/w @ 25/1 (6 places) NAP
2.41 Market Rasen – Summer Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The market is pretty cramped for this handicap hurdle but I reckon the 12/1 about Ingleby Hollow is worth taking e/w. You might remember us backing this son of Beat Hollow a few months ago at Haydock in the Swinton. He raced off 125 that day and ran a cracker to finish 4th at 33/1.
Since then he has had a couple more runs, neither of which really panned out for him. He was beat 3L at Kelso off 124 and then 7L in a valuable race at Cartmel. This horse needs them to go a decent gallop and then come from off the pace with a late challenge. Pisagh Pike and Cirque Royale are both front runners so hopefully they take each other on.
Ingleby Hollow will handle the ground and he also ticks the C&D form box. He was 3rd in this when it was a Listed race in 2019 off 126 and he was a very unlucky 5th last year, denied a clear run. I’d imagine this has been the plan ever since the Swinton and, granted a clear passage, Ingleby Hollow is capable of going very close at odds of 12/1.
Market Rasen Saturday Tips: Ingleby Hollow e/w @ 12/1 (4 places) nb
2.56 Newbury – Hackwood Stakes (Group 3)
A wide open heat with quite a few horses we have backed before. Happy Romance was kind to us last year and she is the fav for Hannon and Levey. She’s been finding life tough at the top level and this drop back in Grade could be just what she needs. Rohaan is next best and with a rating of 115, he is entitled to be thereabouts. Minzaal and Man Of Promise are another two horses with loads of ability but the bookies haven’t missed them.
I am surprised to see Method as big as 28/1. We bet him at Sandown (5f gd/fm) last time and he rewarded us with a place. The way he finished suggested stepping back up to 6f would suit and he is slowly but surely getting the hang of sprinting. Maybe he might just need a drop of rain to get his head in front but he handles faster conditions and a big run would come as no surprise.
Max Too Big
At even bigger odds of 33/1, Sam Maximus could go well for e/w players. By Showcasing, this 3yo gets a handy weight for age allowance. We backed him at Newmarket (6f gd/fm) last season where he ran a cracker at 40s, finishing 0.5L behind the classy Lusail. He then ran with credit in a soft ground G3 in France, before disappointing at the Curragh and then Newcastle.
His Winter break seemed to do him the world of good. James Horton’s charge returned with a fine effort behind Tiber Flow over today’s C&D. He was only beat 1.25L and last time, he wasn’t disgraced in the G1 Commonwealth Cup at the Royal Meeting. The drop back to G3 company will help him, as will the return to Newbury. At odds of 33/1, Sam Maximus is the e/w selection.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Sam Maximus e/w @ 33/1 (5 places W Hill)
3.10 Curragh – Sapphire Stakes (Group 2)
A hard race in which to make a case for one at a big price. Mooniesta is the one to beat on her fine effort behind Nature Strip at Royal Ascot. Colin Keane abandons Geocentric to ride her again and that is an ominous sign for the opposition. UK raider Equilateral only has 0.25L to find with Mooniesta on their meeting in the King’s Stand and he was an unlucky loser last time at Sandown. The quick ground will suit and he may well chase the fav home. Castle Star would be a massive threat if fit but is best watched on his seasonal return.
Brostaigh is a progressive horse but his best turf form is on ground with an ease. Cadamosto is inconsistent but if he was on a going day, he could place here. New York City came up short in G3 company last time but he is still a young horse and he could yet prove up to this level. If Last Crusader repeated the form he showed at York in May, he could go well but that is no guarantee. Geocentric and Ladies Church complete the field and the Lyons horse had 2.75L in hand the last time they met. The cream will likely rise to the top here and I’m happy to keep a watching brief. No bet.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.14 Market Rasen – Summer Plate (Grade 3)
Francky Du Berlais absolutely dotted up in this last year off 137 and he is back for a repeat bid off just 2lbs higher. He has had a couple of quiet runs to get him ready and if he is at his best, he’ll win. 11/2 is too short for the blog though and one that could run into a place at bigger odds is the old boy, Peregrine Run.
Peter Fahey is no stranger to success in big races in the UK as we saw at Cheltenham in 2021. His 12yo son of King’s Theatre should be approaching peak fitness now after three runs this season. The first one was a non-event over timber but he has shaped very nicely the last twice in decent handicaps at Ballinrobe (23f gd/yld) and at Cartmel (21f gd/sft).
He finished 3rd in both of those races. At Ballinrobe he was beat 7L and he was only 4.5L behind Mr Sanderson off 139 at Cartmel. He races off the same rating here and the quicker ground will be in his favour. Sean Flanagan is over to take the ride and just over a year ago this horse was rated 150 over fences. At odds of 20/1, Peregrine Run is the each way selection.
Market Rasen Saturday Tips: Peregrine Run e/w @ 20/1 (4 places Coral)
3.30 Newbury – Super Sprint Stakes (Class 2)
These races are always interesting affairs. The weights are determined by how much the horse cost at the sales with penalties for winning class 2 or class 1 races and allowances for sex. The best treated horse by the conditions of the race is Maria Branwell. She is already rated 100 after a Listed win and G2 3rd and she only has to carry 8-11. Rogue Spirit is next best in the betting and he is rated 9lbs lower yet only carries 2lbs less than the fav.
At much bigger odds, maybe Safari Dream can go well for in-form Rod Millman. His horses have been running really well and this son of Bungle Inthejungle has shown promise on both outings to date. On debut at Sandown (5f gd/sft) he was only beat a neck and then in a stronger race at Windsor last month he stayed on well to finish 3rd behind Swift Asset (5f gd/fm).
He has 2L to find with the Hannon horse, a general 8/1 shot today. At Windsor the Millman horse got bumped at the start, was trapped wide and still showed signs of greenness. They were racing off level weights and Safari Dream is now 3lbs better off. He should have learned plenty from his last run and I am not sure he should be 4x the price of Swift Asset. At the prices, Safari Dream is worth backing e/w.
Curragh and Newbury Saturday Tips: Safari Dream e/w @ 33/1 (5 Places B365)
3.45 Curragh – Irish Oaks (Group 1)
The big one and the market was turned on its head early on Friday afternoon. News broke that red hot fav Emily Upjohn was out, withdrawn due to travel problems. That means only seven horses remain in what could be the worst renewal of this race of all time. The 109 rated Magical Lagoon has been put in as the 5/4 fav for Jessie and Dusty Foley. She landed a G2 at Ascot last time out and a repeat of that could suffice. She did have a pretty hard race though and at the odds, I’d probably be a layer rather than a backer.
Cairde Go Deo is next best at 6/1 and she could go well. The form of her Listed win at Leopardstown was boosted by Boundless Ocean on Thursday night at Leopardstown. She is proven at the distance and on the ground and she has the assistance of Champion jockey Colin Keane in the saddle. She has a bit to find with the fav on their meeting at Navan in May but I wouldn’t be surprised if she went and won.
Coolmore Challenge
Emily Dickinson, Toy and History represent Coolmore and Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Toy. Her rating of 101 looks very generous on what she has done so far and she’ll need to improve plenty to win this. History proved no match for Magical Lagoon at Ascot and if I was going to back one of the three, it would probably be Emily Dickinson. She took a big step forward when runner up at Leopardstown last time but again, she is nothing special on all known form.
Show Of Stars looks out of his depth on what she has shown so far. She has already been beaten by History and she was 5L behind Concert Hall and a couple of lengths behind Cairde Go Deo at Navan. That leaves Fenella, our ante-post pick. She is totally unexposed and you can read my reasoning for fancying her here. She is now into 16/1 and we are in a decent position being on at 40s for 3 places. I’m happy to stick with that bet, hopefully she does the business.
