Sunday World Matchplay Darts Preview and Tips -JP
Sunday World Matchplay Darts Preview
James Punt got off to a decent start on Saturday. He landed 3 winners from 5 picks and just missed out on the correct score in the Wright v Razma match by a solitary leg. He has another preview for today, check out his Sunday World Matchplay Darts tips below.
Afternoon Session
Dirk van Duijvenbode vs. Ryan Searle
This will be their fifth meeting and Dirk has won three of the previous four, the last being an 8-7 win in the final of PC12 in April. The Dutchman is in better form, having won eight of his last ten matches, Ryan six. The Aubergenius was last seen last Friday when he won PC18. He averaged 100.8 across his eight matches that day, winning 68% of legs played.
Searle reached the semi-final of PC19 on Saturday, but his scoring across that tournament was just 92.87. It was a bit of a patchy performance and his scoring all weekend was be bit light. He is normally quite a heavy scorer but you have to go back to May to find his last ton plus.
Both made their Blackpool debuts last year and both lost their opening matches. Both lost 10-7 and both averaged 92.
Dirk van Duijvenbode is the 1.70 favourite and looks a bit of value to make the second round. He can be a bit nervous in opening matches, but he seems in decent fettle and hopefully he hits the ground running.
Sunday World Matchplay Darts Tips: 1 point Dirk van Duijvenbode to win @ 1.70 with Ladbrokes
Danny Noppert vs. Brendan Dolan
Dolan has not had much of a season with a win rate of just 51%, but he improved that by winning PC21 on Monday. That came right out of the blue after losing three first round matches before that. Dolan has played in seven previous matchplays, losing four first round matches, including his last two in 2020 and 2021. He can have good runs in majors, as he did in last year’s players championship finals, reaching the semi-final, but this has been his least successful of all the majors.
Danny Noppert has not had much joy in this event either having played in three and won just one match, and that was behind closed doors. He is a better player now, playing his best darts and very much a contender for the majors. He is in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches, and he too picked up a title last weekend, winning PC19.
Interestingly, they last met just last Monday, and it was Dolan who won 6-5, on his way to winning PC21. That is the only time they have met, and it was a poor match, with both averaging in the mid 80’s.
Noppert Deservedly Fav
Noppert is the 1.48 favourite which is about right, despite last Monday’s result. There is one area of their respective games where there is a gulf in class and that is 180 hitting. Noppert hits twice as many per leg as Dolan and in a longer format, that should show clearly. If Noppy gets the 180s flowing it will put a lot of scoring pressure on Dolan and that should be the difference.
The History Maker does tend to grind out his wins, if you let him. He gets involved in a lot of final leg deciders, and in his players championship win on Monday, he won three matches 6-5.
This match could go one of two ways. Dolan will hang in and grind it out to a close finish, or Noppert lights up the 180s and blows Dolan away. Given Monday’s close finish, I will go for the latter.
Sunday World Matchplay Darts Tips: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 1.91 with Fitzdares, Boylesports
Gary Anderson vs. Daryl Gurney
Playing pro darts has become a bit of a slog for Anderson these days. He only really cares for the World Championship and to be fair to him, he does bloody well at it. He did reach the final of the recent World Series event in Copenhagen last month and he averaged 103 when beating Peter Wright 10-4.
However, he warmed up for this event by playing in three of the four players championship events last weekend, winning one match. He has only played 12 matches in the last two months, winning five.
Daryl Gurney reached the quarter final of PC18 last Friday, but he wasn’t playing particularly well, and he won just two more matches over the weekend. We do get to see his A game fairly regularly, but rarely in back to back games, which is why he isn’t putting any runs together. You really don’t know what to expect.
Close H2H
They have an extensive H2H record, with both players having won ten of their 20 matches. More recently, Anderson has won three of their last four, but Superchin their only match in 2022, a 6-5 win in February.
With Anderson’s motivation often the key to his game, a bit of an unknown, and Gurney’s form all over the place, this looks like a match to watch rather than bet on. Anderson is the 1.73 favourite which is very short given his recent form, but is Gurney attractive enough at 2.20? I was tempted by over 9.5 180s at 1.85 as both players remain strong in that department, but the value is marginal. No bet.
Sunday World Matchplay Darts Tips: No Bet
Michael Smith vs. Andrew Gilding
Perhaps the most interesting match of the session. Gilding is one of the form players of 2022 but here he faces a player many are tipping to win this tournament. Smith has won three players championships, a Euro Tour event and a World Series title this season, while Gilding has lost two players championship finals and reached a Euro Tour semi-final. Listening to some commentators, well, Dan Dawson anyway, you would think it was the other way round. Perspective is important.
What Gilding has done is to improve his game to a much higher level than before. He was a player of a modest standard, better known for his strange way of addressing the board. He is now averaging 95.66 for the season which is up with the best but still a little shy of Smith. His win rate is 64%, again a little shy of Smith’s 67%.
Smith Edges Recent H2H
Their H2H record is 5-4 to Smith but Smith has won their last three, including two this season 7-4 and 6-4. Gilding hasn’t beaten Smith since 2019 and on stage, it is 2-0 to Smith.
Gilding has played in two previous Matchplays, in 2014 and 2015 and he won just one match. Smith used to struggle in Blackpool, it took him seven years to get beyond the second round, but his last three have seen form figures of RU/SF/QF.
Both players’ 12 month checkout rate is 41% but Smith hits a lot more 180s per leg, 0.33 per leg compared to 0.21 per leg. That extra fire power is likely to allow him to set up more opportunities to break throw and helps to defend his own.
Recent form sees seven wins for Smith in his last ten, with the same for gilding.
The market has Smith as the 1.48 favourite, Gilding 3.00, and the market looks about right, maybe a touch generous to Smith. He may not be the most reliable player under the cosh, but that tends to come later in tournaments.
Sunday World Matchplay Darts Tips: 1 point Smith to win -2.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfred
World Matchplay Darts Tips: 0.5 points Smith to win 10-6 @ 8.50 with Betfred
Sunday World Matchplay Darts – Evening Session
Joe Cullen vs. Damon Heta
With a nickname like The Heat, you would think Damon Heta will handle the conditions on the Winter Garden stage better than most. At least both players are fit and not carrying too many excess pounds, which will help. Although it must be said that the stage temperatures were not mentioned last night, so maybe the conditions are not as harsh as they have been in the past.
Joe Cullen will be an interesting player to follow for the rest of the year. He started 2022 by winning The Masters and qualifying for the Premier League and then won back to back players championship titles. He was running as hot as anybody has done in 2022.
Rockstar then got on the Premier League hamster wheel and the week in, week out grind blunted his form. In the end, he made the playoffs, made the final and lost a deciding leg to MVG for the title. He picked up a shed load of cash, not ranking cash, but proper spending money.
Return To Top Form?
Now refreshed and back to the day job, will we see a return to the form he had in the first couple of months of the year, or will he be frustrated by coming so close to winning the PL? Since The PL finished a month ago, he has played nine matches and lost five, just a bit flat.
His H2H record with Heta is 2-2 and in 2022 it is 1-1. Cullen beat Heta 8-4 in the final of PC 3, before the PL started, but lost 1-6 in April, when the PL was taking a toll.
Heavy Scorer
Damon Heta is one of the heaviest scorers in the game, averaging 97.95 and winning 72% of his matches in 2022. He has an elite level A-game, I would say a better one than Joe Cullen, but Cullen is better at winning titles. I may be a bit impatient with Damon. He has upped sticks and moved to the UK to pursue a dream and that is a big wrench, especially when you factor in Covid which prevented him returning home for a holiday for a long time. That may take more time to get used to than I have given him.
That he won the World Cup of Darts with Simon Whitlock may be the final piece of the jigsaw, the win that helps him kick on and start to be a regular winner of tournaments, and major ones at that. His recent form is very good, winning eight of his last ten matches and hitting seven ton plus averages last weekend.
These two players are amongst the biggest 180 hitters, hitting at 0.61 per leg between them. Again, the bookies seem to have a grip on that with over 10.5 a 2.00 shot.
Sunday World Matchplay Darts Tips: 1 point Damon Heta to win -2.5 legs @ 2.50 with Betfred
James Wade vs. Martin Lukeman
Martin Lukeman, like Andrew Gilding, is a player who has made great strides with his game in 2022. What he isn’t is as heavy a scorer as Gilding. Smash is averaging 92.27 in 2022 which is OK but not enough at this sort of level. James Wade only averages 93.61 but he has carved a very successful career by being a great finisher rather than a very heavy scorer. He tends to win a lot of legs on the third dart which tends to bring his averages down.
Wade only has a win rate of 57% in 2022, compared to 66% for Lukeman, but again, Wade is playing against stronger opposition more often courtesy of the Premier League. He has won six of his last ten and it must be said that he wasn’t very impressive in the players championship last weekend, but still won seven matches
Lukeman is in decent form, winning six of his last ten but losing his last three. He has played Wade twice this year and won one.
Experience Key
The big difference between the two is experience and especially experience on the big stage. Lukeman has enjoyed playing on the stage on the Euro Tour this year, but his only experience in big TV majors is this year’s UK Open where he played four and won three, but my guess is only one of those was on TV, and he lost that one.
Wade on the other hand has played hundreds and this is his seventeenth Matchplay. He has won it once and made five more finals. He has lost three first round matches in the last six years, so he is not a bulletproof selection.
It is interesting that four of his last five first round matches in this event have gone to extra time. He was stuffed 3-10 by Luke Humphries last year, but the previous four saw total legs of 22,25,22 and 24. If Lukeman can hang in, and it is a big if, we could see another long one. My worry is that Lukeman will sweat up in the paddock. He is carrying a bit of timber and it will be very hot. Wade knows what to expect, it is all new for Lukeman.
Sunday World Matchplay Darts Tips: 1 point over 17.5 legs @ 2.80 with Ladbrokes
Michael van Gerwen vs. Adrian Lewis
This will be interesting. MVG comes here with no recent form having been laid up after wrist surgery. Lewis on the other hand won PC 20 last Sunday, his first title since 2019. He had three wins with sub 90 averages but finished like train in the last four, averaging 101.
Their H2H record is 45-17 to MVG. They have played once this year with MVG winning 6-5, and once last year which Lewis won 6-4. That was after ten consecutive defeats. They have met twice in this event, both semi-finals and it was one win each.
Take On MVG
It is clear that MVG has Lewis’ number more often than not, but Lewis will be champing at the bit to win this and have a good run. He is battling to keep his career viable having dropped out of the world top 32 and he needs more big cheques to get back in.
With MVG not having played for a while, he must be worth taking on. He has only lost a first round match twice here but his preparation for this one hasn’t been ideal.
Sunday World Matchplay Darts Tips: 1 point Adrian Lewis to win @ 3.40 with Unibet, BET365
Luke Humphries vs. Nathan Aspinall
Amazingly, these two have only met twice before at senior level, with one win each. Humphries beat Aspinall 6-3 on the Euro Tour in May, where else, and before that The Asp won 6-2 in a players championship match in 2018. So, very little in the way of H2H form to go on.
Recent form sees Humphries winning seven of his last ten matches and 76% in 2022, the highest win rate in the field. Aspinall is in great form, winning eight of his last ten and 72% of his matches in 2022. Two of the form players going head to head in the very first round. It has all the makings of a great match.
180 Fest
Humphries is ranked 10th for 180s per leg and Aspinall 14th, with a 0.61 per leg combined. We should see plenty of maximums, but last night it was unders all the way in that market. 6,6,8 and 8 maximums were hit in the opening four matches.
It can be that the hot, sweaty conditions can make the darts hard to grip but nobody was talking about the conditions and the players were not obviously sweating. In three of last night’s games, one player in each only hit a single 180. It just rarely kicked off with both players going hammer and tongs at it. Could this be the first 180 fest?
