Ripon and Newbury Saturday Preview and Tips – DS
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Racing Tips
The Ebor Festival can’t start soon enough judging from this weekend’s fare. Nine races, six of which have seven runners or less and four with just five runners. They couldn’t even muster up a field for the Great St Wilfrid consolation! Things are going from bad to worse and that trend will continue when the jumpers return. Anyway, let’s hope we can nick a few places. Ripon and Newbury Saturday tips are below. (Ebor Ante-Post Tip here).
1.20 Newbury – 10f Handicap (Class 4)
A moderate affair to start the day and at 22/1, maybe Wonder Elmossman can bounce back from a poor effort at Newmarket last time. Stan Moore’s 4yo son of Elzaam was dropped 5lbs for that run, a very generous gesture from the handicapper. Yes, his best form this season has come on the all weather but he does have a couple of good turf runs in the book.
Two starts ago at Chelmsford this horse was beat just 1.75L into 2nd in a stronger race than this. It was his first try at 10f and he saw it out well after being briefly denied a clear run turning in. His best turf form came in two novices last year, one on good and one on good to soft. He wasn’t disgraced when 5th off 80 at Sandown back in May either. Off 6lbs lower, hopefully he can repeat the level of form he showed at Chelmsford and run into the money at odds of 22/1.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: Wonder Elmossman e/w @ 22/1
1.40 Ripon – Hornblower Stakes (Class 2)
Five runners and four of them single figure odds. Honour Your Dream is the outsider and Adrian Keatley’s charge would make some appeal each way if there were three places on offer. There isn’t though and High Definition and Wen Moon look most likely to fight out the finish. No bet.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
1.55 Newbury – Denford Stakes (Listed)
We backed Bluelight Bay last time out in a G2 at Goodwood. He got a bit warm before the race and could only manage 5th, beat 5.75L. I am willing to forgive Eve Johnson Houghton’s charge that effort on account of the fact he was sweating up and didn’t get into a more prominent early position. He is better than that Goodwood effort and he looked a horse to keep on the right side of when winning easily at Windsor previously.
Another cause for optimism is the step up to 7f. His dam won over 10f/12f and she is a half to a couple of 7f winners. There is enough stamina in there to suggest that this test will suit. Quick ground is fine and he is the second best horse in the field according to the figures. Victory Dance was beat a short head in a G2 last time and he is the one to beat on that form. However, at 17/2, Bluelight Bay is worth giving another chance to.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: Bluelight Bay e/w @ 17/2 nb
2.30 Newbury – Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)
Two horses we have backed already this season head the market in this 13.5f G3. Zechariah was beat a nose for us at Ascot. However, he isn’t a 20/1 shot this time. We were on Away He Goes in the Goodwood Cup last time out and he ran a very good race to finish 5th. We didn’t get the place money at 50/1 but it was a decent performance. The outsider, Silence Please, is capable of going well here if in the mood but it’s a long time since she won. Unfortunately, this is going to be another no bet race with just two places on offer.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.50 Ripon – Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2)
Only three winners of the Great St Wilfrid since 2002 have had single figure draws. The last four winners have started from stalls 19, 17, 15 and 19 so more often than not, a high draw is what you want. Maybe with a field of just 15 it may not be quite as important and Blackrod’s supporters will be hoping that is the case.
He is in stall 1 and he is 4lbs above his last winning mark but as a 4yo there could still be more improvement to come. He was a good 2nd in the Ayr Silver Cup in 2021, so I’d imagine the Ayr Gold Cup is his ultimate aim this year. He’ll get in off his current rating so he might not be there to win today.
Great Draw
Snash has a great draw in stall 14 and I think it’s safe to say this is his trip. I thought he’d be stepping up to maybe even a mile but his last two 6f starts resulted in victory. He’s gone back up to 90 now though and there just isn’t enough juice in his odds of 10/1 to tempt. From stall 11, former C&D winner Fortamour could go well.
Ben Haslam does well with his flat recruits and this 6yo has been a grand servant. The son of Es Que Love has won 6 of his 28 starts and given his course record, I’d imagine this race has always been on Haslam’s radar. Fortamour’s career form figures over today’s C&D read 331114.
A win off 85 in May saw his mark rise to 90 and after a nice little break, he blew the cobwebs away with a decent effort at York. The assessor dropped him 1lb for that run and off just 4lbs higher than when winning here in May, Fortamour can hopefully enhance his fine Ripon record at odds of 14/1.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: Fortamour e/w @ 14/1 (6 Places) NAP
3.00 Newbury – 7f Handicap (Class 2)
Most of these are dropping into calmer waters after contesting red hot, big field handicaps on their last couple of runs. Only seven runners and again, not much value to be found. Documenting ran a cracker at Ascot last time but I think he is best suited by big fields and a proper gallop. Able Kane destroyed his mark when winning by 6L at Ffos Las and United Front may need the run after a 120 day break. Yet again, no bet.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.18 Newmarket – Grey Horse Handicap (Class 4)
I like the concept of this race having once been a part owner of a grey. However, what I don’t like is that just 7 run. At least a good few bookies are paying out on three places and the odds of 8/1 about Lord Rapscallion are too big to turn down. This horse has not won as many races as his talent deserves. The 6yo so often runs gallantly in defeat and today could be the day he finally gets his grey head back in front.
Stuart Williams’ charge most recently placed off 86 in June. He was only beat 4L off 93 at Royal Ascot last summer and he is now 10lbs lower. Jockey bookings would suggest that Revolutionise is Williams’ first string here but maybe they are just trying something different with Lord Rapscallion as Ghiani has had enough chances on him already. If Callum Shepherd can coax the son of Alhebayeb back to anywhere near his best he should go very close to winning this at odds of 8/1.
Ripon and Newbury Saturday Tip: Lord Rapscallion e/w @ 8/1 (3 places B365)
3.35 Newbury – Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)
To Primo, or not to Primo, that is the question. I rightly stayed away from her at Goodwood where she ran only okay again to be 5th. The big hope is that returning to Newbury on fast ground might just spark her back to her best. It was here, in the Fred Darling last year, that she first caught my eye. She would have beaten subsequent Guineas winner Alcohol Free with a clear run and she then went on to win for us at York.
To be fair, her run behind Saffron beach at Ascot in June looks solid form now, even if I was a bit disappointed to miss out on place money. When you look at the opposition here, a repeat of that run might be good enough. There is loads of early pace in this race and it should help Ed Walker’s filly to settle. If she does, hopefully she can show that turn of foot that we haven’t seen since her close 5th in the G1 Falmouth at Newmarket in July 2021. Off we go over the cliff once more with Primo Bacio at odds of 20/1.
