Beverley and Goodwood Saturday Tips – DS
Beverley and Goodwood Saturday Tips
York proved to be tough going. Our Friday and Saturday selections failed to fire and I was happy that I had my brother’s wedding to distract me at the end of a hard week. We are back in action tomorrow and we’ll have cut in the ground at one course at least. Hopefully, we can pick up where we left off on our last Goodwood preview, Beverley and Goodwood Saturday tips are below.
1.30 Beverley – Joe Rowntree Handicap (Class 4)
A very trappy 7.5f, class 4 handicap kicks off the action on ITV on Saturday. Tangled was around 16/1 when I first looked at this race. However, Gemma Tutty’s 7yo has already been well backed but there is still some value in his current odds of 10/1. This son of Society Rock enjoys running at this track. Two of his six career wins have come here, two years ago off marks of 73 and 77. His last two victories came at Carlisle last season, those coming off 76 and 78.
This horse has won on all sorts of ground so he won’t mind what the weather does. He is down to a dangerous mark and he has run well on three of his last four starts, including when beat a neck over 8.5f here off 73 back in mid-June. On the evidence of his last run at Pontefract, the slight drop in trip won’t do him any harm and the return to Beverley is a plus too. Gemma Tutty has done an excellent job since taking over training duties from her mum Karen and at odds of 10/1, Tangled should run a big race for her here.
Beverley and Goodwood Saturday Tips: Tangled e/w @ 10/1 (4 Places B365)
1.50 Goodwood – Prestige Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3)
After a badly needed deluge earlier this week, the ground is on the soft side at Goodwood. The first race on the menu from there is this 7f Group 3 for the 2yo fillies. Given how quick the ground has been for most of the season, these conditions are an unknown for plenty of these, including the fav Fairy Cross. We backed Inanna last time but her trainer blamed rain for her previous below par effort at Sandown so I won’t be going in again on her today.
Bet Me, on the other hand, has not only won on soft, she has also won at Goodwood. That came over 6f and while she could only manage 4th in that Listed contest at Sandown (Inanna 5th), it wasn’t a bad first effort in pattern company. Richard Hannon’s horses are in rare form and with Ivory Madonna the only other horse in the field with any form on ground with soft in the description, Bet Me makes plenty of appeal e/w at odds of 14/1.
Beverley and Goodwood Saturday Tips: Bet Me e/w @ 14/1
2.05 Beverley – Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2)
A £30 grand, Saturday handicap for 3yos only and a pitiful turnout of just six. I was going to swerve the race, and I probably should, but I cannot resist having a small e/w interest on Forgivable. Tim Easterby is a master at bringing these young handicappers along and this horse has been progressing steadily if not spectacularly. The son of Iffraaj ran four times as a 2yo, failing to win but shaping with promise, and he was awarded a handicap mark of 73.
His comeback/handicap debut was likely needed when beat 4L at Doncaster. The money came next time out and he went very close over 8f at Pontefract. The assessor raised him 2lbs for that run but it didn’t stop him from scoring by a neck when upped to 10f at Redcar on his next start. He made virtually all that day but last time at Haydock, more patient tactics were employed.
David Allan had him sitting off the early pace in 4th and while he kept on very well to the line for 3rd behind his stablemate, he just didn’t have the turn of foot to quicken. Back in this smaller field hopefully Cam Hardie will be able to dictate from the front and if he can, Forgivable will gallop on all the way to the line. He is bred to be better than a 77 horse and I don’t think it was his mark that stopped him last time. At odds of 10/1, Forgivable can hopefully go very close.
Beverley and Goodwood Saturday Tips: Forgivable e/w @ 10/1
2.25 Goodwood – William Hill Handicap (Class 2)
In big fields at Goodwood over this 7f trip a low draw is vital. However, with just 11 going to post in this contest, it might be possible to win from a higher starting berth. Until the rain came, I thought Sir Dancealot was a fascinating contender off a mark of 105. John Butler’s charge likes it here but the vast majority of his best turf form has come on good or quicker. If the ground dries out sufficiently, he has the class to win this easily but you couldn’t back him with confidence if there is soft in the description.
Able Kane, on the other hand, won’t have any issues on the forecast ground. Rod Millman’s son of Due Diligence has form figures of 3124141 on ground with soft in the description. He did run poorly on his last visit to Goodwood but he lost his race at the start. He won by 6L off 87 four runs back at Ffos Las and he proved he could be competitive off his revised mark of 93 last time at Newbury when beat less than 2L by Documenting.
This will be his first time on slow ground this season. The last time he had it, he beat Tomfre by 2L off 89 at Leicester. He is only 3lbs higher now and until his last run at Goodwood, his three previous efforts here returned form figures of 422. Able Kane likes the track, he’ll act on the ground and his trainer is flying. At odds of 14/1, he looks a solid e/w bet.
Beverley and Goodwood Saturday Tips: Able Kane e/w @ 14/1 NB (4 places)
2.40 Beverley – Beverley Bullet Stakes (Listed)
No rain has fallen at Beverley and a decent sized field of 13 will line up in the stalls for this Listed contest. On ratings, Tis Marvellous is the class horse of the race and if he produces his best, he should win. However, neither of his runs this season were close to his best and there is a chance this 8yo’s best days are behind him.
If the ground were soft, I’d be having a decent bet on Ainsdale. Julie Camacho’s son of Mayson is a Group class horse when there is an ease in the ground and connections have waited patiently for the weather to turn in their favour. The rain hasn’t come for them on this occasion, hopefully he’ll get it at Ascot later in the season and he’ll be worth a bet then.
Fred Darling Form
One that looks a shade overpriced is Barbanera. Richard Fahey’s daughter of Showcasing ran a massive race on her return in the Fred Darling (7f gd). She was a shade keen but she finished a close 4th, just 1.75L behind Wild Beauty and 1.25L behind Jumbly. At Chester next time she took an even fiercer hold and she faded into last having led.
Last time out at Pontefract Fahey dropped her back to 6f and judging by how she was ridden, the plan was to get her to settle. Oisin Orr dropped her out and she didn’t pull anywhere near as hard as she did at Chester. She didn’t pick up after moving into the race nicely 2f out but hopefully, she’ll have learned from it. Her last and only start at 5f resulted in victory and she has a decent draw in stall 4. If she can repeat the form she showed at Newbury, Barbanera could sneak into the money at odds of 25/1.
Beverley and Goodwood Saturday Tips: Barbanera e/w @ 25/1
3.15 Newmarket – Hopeful Stakes (Listed)
The sole live race of the day from Newmarket is this Listed sprint over 6f. The ground is soft at HQ and a decent field of 11 are due to go to post. Great Ambassador has been put in as the 7/2 fav but conditions are a worry. He has run well once on soft but both his turf victories have come on rattling fast ground. Daneh is next best in the betting and while she has good form on soft in the book, she has yet to race at this trip. Maybe the stiff 6f here will suit but she could well need the run on her comeback from a year off.
Vadream is a horse who will relish the easy ground. The last time she had proper soft ground, she won a G3 at Ascot (6f sft). This year she has run three below par races on quicker ground but I would expect a much better performance now that she gets her optimum conditions. However, the booking of Frankie catches the eye on Mo Celita and she will be delighted with the recent rain.
Adrian Nicholls trains this daughter of Camacho and her soft ground form is mustard. She has form figures of 154311 on heavy/sft with the 4th coming in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp. Her form figures on soft at 6f read 11 and she has yet to get her ground in two runs this term. 18/1 looks huge given the concerns about a couple of the market leaders and at those odds, Mo Celita is the each way selection.
Newmarket Saturday Tips: Mo Celita e/w @ 18/1 (4 Places) NAP
3.35 Goodwood – Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2)
Another poor turnout with just five runners in this valuable G2. Stormy Antarctic is a horse I am a huge fan of and on this ground, he has every chance in this contest. Ed Walker’s charge is a former soft ground Goodwood winner and he shaped very nicely over 10f here on his seasonal comeback back in May. The son of Stormy Atlantic is a 9yo now but that effort showed he still retained plenty of ability. He just ran out of puff in the closing stages so the drop back to a mile will suit.
Mutasaabeq and Jadoomi are at the head of the market and they have very different profiles to Stormy Antarctic. The former horse is the fav and he has won on soft before but his best form is on fast ground. He’s been beaten fav the last twice but there’ll be plenty steaming in again tomorrow. Jadoomi also handles a bit of cut and he landed a 9f Listed heat in France last time on good to soft. He’s been lightly raced the last two years so he must be hard to keep right.
Legend
Escobar is a legend of a horse and he went oh so close at York off 105 last time. He was only beat a length in this two years ago and he won’t mind the ground. However, he is yet to win at higher than Listed level and a supporting role could be on the cards again for David O’Meara’s charge. Finest Sound is the second Crisford runner and he has run well every time he has encountered cut in the ground. This will be his first time on it this season and he rates as a danger to all.
The bookies are taking zero chances with this race. The two I’d be backing against the fav are Finest Sound and Stormy Antarctic but they are only 15/2 and 10/1 respectively. With only five runners and the possibility of a non-runner making the race win only, I am going to keep the powder dry. I’d love to see Stormy Antarctic win, hopefully he runs a big race.
Beverley and Goodwood Saturday Tips: No Bet
4.15 Curragh – Irish Cambridgeshire Handicap (0-105)
We also have top class action in Ireland on Saturday. The Irish Cambridgeshire is the feature and a field of 27 are due to go to post. The forecast is dry so the ground is going to be on the lively side. In the last 10/12 years mid to high draws have been favoured, though Bopedro bucked the trend last year from stall 5. Mick Mulvany runs two here and it is interesting that Gary Carroll prefers the chances of Big Baby Bull.
This son of Tagula won a Premier here over 7f back in 2020 off 86. He beat Current Option by 1.25L that day and he is only 3lbs higher today. Formerly trained by Denis Hogan, he moved to Mulvany after a brief spell with Tony Martin. The Kells trainer has found the key to him and he is unlucky not to be 2/3 for his new handler.
A Naas win on stable debut off 81 was followed by an even better run at Galway (8.5f gd) when he didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs. His spin over today’s C&D should have kept him ticking over and he will be much better suited by today’s bigger field and likely stronger gallop. He is drawn in stall 25 and at odds of 25/1, Big Baby Bull is worth backing e/w.
Bigger Odds
At even bigger odds, Imposing Supreme could run well from stall 15. This hardy son of Alhebayeb won twice at Galway last season. He has been a reserve for two Premier Handicaps in the past without getting a run but finally, he sneaks into one. Unfortunately, a wide draw meant he had no chance at Galway this year but he did manage to win at Ballinrobe off 76 before the Festival. His run in Ballybrit was a non-event but he shaped nicely last week at Roscommon (7.5f gd) off 81.
He was only beat 4L into 4th under Billy Lee, who probably left him with too much to do. He was only 2.5L behind Verhoyen in receipt of 7lbs and today, with Jamie Powell’s 7lb claim, he is getting 13lbs from that rival. Imposing Supreme has run well at the Curragh on numerous occasions in the past, including over a mile on nice ground. Last season he was 2.75L behind Celtic Crown off 76 at Killarney and he is 7lbs better off with him today. As ever, luck will be required in a race like this but at 50/1, he is worth a small investment e/w.
