2022 Belgian GP Qualifying Update and Tips – JP
2022 Belgian GP Qualifying Update
Now, it’s time for James Punt’s 2022 Belgian GP Qualifying update. You can check out his outright betting preview here.
2022 Belgian GP Qualifying
The competition for this afternoon’s qualifying session will be more intense at the bottom of the grid with the myriad of drivers taking various penalties. We know that Leclerc, Verstappen, Norris, Ocon, Schumacher, Bottas and now Zhou are taking penalties and trying to work out who will start on the back row is akin to rocket science. What we do know is that none of the above can start on pole position. What we don’t know is how much effort they will put into qualifying.
Rule Changes
The rules have changed a little re sorting out the order. Gone are the days of who put in their notice to take new parts into the FIA being ‘first’ of the penalised drivers. In this case that would have been Leclerc. But now it depends on the number of penalty places being applied, combined with the drivers position in qualifying.
Zhou is only taking a 10 place penalty, so if he could be the fastest in qualifying he would start 11th. That isn’t going to happen and his season best in qualifying is 9th, so if he matched that, he should start 19th. Those taking more than 20 penalty places will have to rely on the actual qualifying positions to sort out the order.
The best position any of these drivers can achieve is 13th by my reckoning, but I may well be wrong. It is a load of old bollocks and when you get so many drivers taking penalties on the same day, a ‘back of the grid’ penalty does not mean the driver starts at the back of the grid.
Limited Motivation
Normally, when a driver is taking a full penalty, the motivation to do more than a couple of laps in qualifying is very limited. There is no point wasting tyres and using valuable power unit mileage if you are going to the back of the grid regardless. Today, the likes of Verstappen and Leclerc look like they are trying to be best of the penalised drivers, which means starting 13th, which is not back of the grid.
This means that Leclerc, Verstappen and probably Norris and Ocon could well take a full part in qualifying, going all the way to Q3. The others may not bother. It makes match betting in qualifying particularly unattractive.
Battle For Pole
The battle for pole position is going to be between Perez and Sainz, but they may not be the fastest qualifier and that is what the bookies are betting on. If Verstappen goes all the way to Q3, he could very well be the fastest qualifier, but that would only put him ahead of the other penalised drivers. It is up to him and the team to decide if it is worth it.
There is an argument that he, and Leclerc, would be better starting from the pitlane. That means they would miss the almost inevitable first corner shenanigans. The old tarmac run off area at turn 1 has been replaced by gravel and this is going to make that first corner especially tough come the start of the race. There is just no bailout room and it looks to me that there is likely to be more contacts between cars than usual.
On paper, it may look like Q3 will be between Sainz and Perez battling to be on pole position, but if you are betting on it, you could be undone by the fact that Verstappen ends up as the fastest qualifier.
It is a very unsatisfactory state of affairs and makes betting on this session very unattractive.
15 place Penalty
If I understand correctly, Leclerc is only taking a 15 place penalty, or he was on Friday, and that would mean that Max cannot start ahead of the Ferrari driver and it really isn’t easy to even guess as to what the teams will decide to do.
If you fancy that Max will go all out for fastest qualifier, you can get 3.50, if you think Perez in the other Red Bull will get a free run without Max, he can be backed at 3.50. Carlos Sainz is a 3.75 shot and Leclerc 11.00. Perez was fastest in FP3 and the Red Bull looks mighty fast, so if you really want a bet on this session, he makes the most appeal.
Aston Martin
There are drivers who are not taking any penalties, and the two Aston Martin drivers are amongst them. Historically, this has been this team’s best venue in all its previous guises and so far we have seen an Aston in the top 10 in every session. Stroll was 5th and 4th yesterday and Vettel 8th in FP3. It seems they remain switched on to this circuit.
If some of the drivers taking penalties don’t bother trying to reach Q3, the way might be open to Aston getting one, or both drivers into Q3. They have only had one driver in the top 10 three times this season and qualifying has been their big weakness. Can they buck their seasonal trend on their strongest track? Very possibly. Vettel has been the better qualifier this season, 8-3 up, but Stroll has been quicker in two of the last three sessions.
I will plump for Vettel, he loves this place and qualified 5th here for Aston last year.
