Friday Newmarket and Haydock Preview and Tips – DS
Friday Newmarket and Haydock Tips
It wasn’t to be for Ronald Pump in the Kerry National. When I saw Aidan Coleman giving him a reminder after 100 yards, I knew that he wasn’t on a going day. He’s better than that and Smith might have a different race in mind, possibly the Troytown. Busselton won it in some style for Joseph, forcing a really strong gallop and taking advantage of Hewick’s last fence fall. We are back on the level this weekend, Friday Newmarket and Haydock tips are below.
1.30 Haydock – Nursery Handicap (Class 2)
Only seven runners in this nursery and it makes no appeal from a betting perspective. It looks open if the bookies are to be believed with the fav Rogue Spirit chalked up at 7/2 and the rag Storm Venture only 11/1. If it turns soft overnight Kuwait City will probably shorten from 7/1 but I am happy to just watch. No Bet.
Friday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: No Bet
1.50 Newmarket – Rosemary Stakes (Listed)
Michael Stoute supplies the favourite for this 8f Listed heat. He has been typically patient with Crystal Caprice and she is rapidly improving. She needed the experience on debut last October and the same sentiment probably applied to her comeback at Newbury. On her third start at York in June she hacked up in a fast ground novice by 7L and two handicap wins have followed off 87 and 93.
She is now rated 98, lower than both Zanbaq and Romantic Rival, but she probably has more scope for improvement than either of those horses. This looks the right race at the right time for the 3yo daughter of Frankel. Of the rest, Improvised makes some appeal now stepping back up in trip to a mile for the first time in stakes company.
Ascot
This filly’s last attempt at a mile came at Ascot in June when she was beat just 4L behind Rising Star. It was a good effort and she ran a blinder on her next outing when a fast finishing 3rd over 7f in a Listed heat at Chelmsford. She again finished off very well behind Adaay In Asia at York next time, beat just 3.5L in a hot handicap off 96.
At Tipperary last month she dipped her toe into G3 company. That fast, flat track probably didn’t play to her strengths though. I am hoping that Newmarket’s mile will be more to her liking and hopefully she can make it three places in a row from her last three Listed runs. At odds of 33/1, Improvised is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
Friday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: Improvised e/w @ 33/1 (4 places B365)
2.05 Haydock – MPA Handicap (Class 3)
Many moons ago a wise old punter told me to back Saaed Bin Suroor’s horses blind from September through to November. Backing them blind may have been a bit of an exaggeration but the stats back him up. It is a strategy that has served me well through the years, especially when times were tough back in the college days. His last five runners have returned form figures of 13113 and he has Bright Start in this class 3, 8f handicap.
This horse ran no sort of race on his return to action two weeks ago at Doncaster. However, he was entitled to need it and he should strip a lot fitter now. The drop back to a mile should suit and the forecast rain is another reason for optimism. The 5yo son of Medaglia d’Oro has had three starts on softer than good, finishing 2nd twice and a close 4th.
In Meydan his best form came on the dirt but his best turf form is on easier ground. In June 2021 he was beat a head off 95 at Chelmsford, so he looks fairly treated off 90. The usual cheekpieces were left off last time, but they are back on today. At odds of 28/1, Bright Start is the e/w selection.
Friday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: Bright Start e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
2.25 Newmarket – Dubai Stakes (Group 3)
The clear form pick in this G3 for the fillies is Sea Silk Road. She has been running with credit in G2 company after winning her Listed race at Goodwood back in May (10f sft). A superb effort at Ascot in the Ribblesdale (12f) followed and she wasn’t disgraced behind Trevaunance in France last time (10f). The fact she wears a first time tongue tie has to rate as a slight negative, though.
Her main rival on the figures looks to be Eternal Pearl. She has won a Listed and a G3 on her last two starts, both at 12f. She did finish 0.5L behind the current fav at Goodwood in May but she has won three from four since, whereas the Haggas horse has failed to win. If I was backing either of the market leaders, she would probably be the choice at 5/2, even though she has to carry a penalty.
Place Claims
Back in trip, Quenelle D’Or is worth giving another chance to. This filly has been campaigned at 14f this season. She ran well over the trip in a handicap at Ascot but her other two runs at the distance have been very disappointing. Her last start at 12f saw her land a Listed contest in France last September and the booking of Jamie Spencer catches the eye.
Spencer often gets criticised for his hold up rides but he is excellent on front runners. This filly is at her best when making all, just like she did at Saint-Cloud last season. Spencer has had 11 previous rides for Palmer, returning 3 wins and four top 4 finishes. He hasn’t ridden for Lady Derby before, but he is 2/9 for Lord Derby. Palmer has freshened the daughter of Golden Horn up since Leopardstown and she has won when fresh in the past. Hopefully she is ridden aggressively tomorrow and if she is, she could go very close at odds of 16/1.
Friday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: Quenelle D’Or e/w @ 16/1 NAP
2.40 Haydock – Fisher Handicap (Class 3)
In the hope that easier ground brings about some improvement, Teumessias Fox is the e/w play in this 14f handicap. Trained by Andrew Balding, this 3yo is a full brother to the very talented Zabeel Prince. He was a horse that enjoyed a bit of dig in the ground and this will be Teumessias Fox’s first ever run on this sort of ground.
His sole win from eight starts to date came over 10f at Newcastle back in March. Since then he has run three nice races on fast ground at Salisbury (2nd off 84), and twice at Ascot off 84 and then off 85 when beat 1.5L over 12f (gd/fm). Last time at Goodwood nothing went right and as ever, I am willing to forgive a below par run at that quirky track.
His 2.5L 6th behind Secret State at Ascot suggested that this sort of trip is well worth trying and his price is an overreaction to his Goodwood run. Balding has had 10 winners in the last fortnight and with Jason Watson doing the steering, Teumessias Fox is worth chancing e/w at odds of 20/1.
Friday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: Teumessias Fox e/w @ 20/1
3.00 Newmarket – Rockfel Stakes (Group 2)
A refreshingly big field of 14 will go to post in this G2 for juvenile fillies. Commissioning, a very impressive winner on debut on the July course back in July, is the warm 15/8 fav. However, only two horses that finished behind her have won since and she has to prove she can cut it at this level. Olivia Maralda, on the other hand, has form with G1 placed and dual G3 and G2 winner Meditate. She was only 0.75L behind the O’Brien filly last time at the Curragh (7f gd) and at the prices she makes far more appeal than the Gosden filly.
Keeping Faith
We backed Dubai Jemila for the May Hill at Doncaster but she was a late non-runner. She was regarded as the stable 3rd string that day but judging by how the ‘first string’ Dance In The Grass ran, maybe she was higher up the pecking order than they thought. Pre-race, the racing manager for Jaber Abdullah said he was concerned about the 8f trip, so it is no surprise to see her back at 7f now for her first stakes run.
Her debut run behind Lady Hollywood has aged well and that was over an inadequate 5f. I loved how she finished off the race and upped to 7f at Ayr next time, she got off the mark. The runner up was a previous winner and the 3rd has since been beat a short head in a novice. On pedigree this filly will stay further than 7f in time but for now, the daughter of Dubawi shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by this trip.
Dance In The Grass is in here again and she is 14/1 with Atzeni booked. Kevin Ryan has secured the services of Ryan Moore for Dubai Jemila and he is 7/39 with 13 top 4s when riding for Abdullah. Atzeni is 2/7 with 4 top 4s and 1/2 with a 2nd in 2022 so again, it looks like Dance In The Grass is the ‘first string’ on jockey bookings. However, you could hardly call the booking of Ryan Moore a negative for any horse and at odds of 40/1, hopefully he can nick some black type on this promising filly.
Friday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: Dubai Jemila e/w @ 40/1 (4 Places)
3.35 Newmarket – Joel Stakes (Group 2)
Last up on ITV4 on Friday is the G2 Joel Stakes. Unfortunately, only seven are due to go to post. The market leader at 3/1 is Tempus. He is on a four timer and he looks well worth a try at G2 level. His last two wins came in G3 company, no doubt he’ll run another solid race here. Will he be good enough to win? On ratings he should be, but racing doesn’t always work out that simply.
G2 Form
Mutasaabeq has already got G2 form in the book. His head defeat to Chindit is arguably the best form on offer and he was too keen last time at Goodwood. If he settles better today and repeats that Ascot form, he could be hard to beat. Pogo has already won a G3 this season and he is holding his form very well. He has won over C&D but his best form this year is over 7f. Back over a mile, he could be vulnerable to stronger finishers.
Potapova scored at 18/1 in a Sandown G3 last time out. That was a career best by some distance, can she back it up? To be fair, this filly’s two poor runs this season came over 10f and 9f. She has won and finished 2nd on her last two 8f runs so it looks like this is her optimal trip.
We backed The Wizard Of Eye last time but he was very disappointing. On his previous Goodwood run he would have a place chance here and the return to better ground is a plus. I’ll be kicking myself if he runs a big race here and we aren’t on. So, with a few firms paying 3 places, I’m going in again e/w for small stakes at odds of 25/1.
