2022 Singapore GP Raceday Update and Tips

James Punt has already penned an ante-post preview, see it here. Now though, it is time for his 2022 Singapore GP Raceday update.

2022 Singapore GP Raceday Preview

It was a bittersweet qualifying session for our bets yesterday. Esteban Ocon suffered with a brake problem in Q1 and failed to get into Q2 never mind Q3 as he should have done. Bottas also went out in Q1 but was a fraction quicker. It was a shame as it was a great little bet at 2.50.

On the other hand, we got lucky with Leclerc’s pole position. It ended up being one of those qualifying sessions where the track was evolving lap by lap, getting drier and with rubber going down. Last man out was going to have the advantage and while Leclerc had put in a very good lap, he was a sitting duck at the top of the time sheet.

Verstappen Unlucky

Perez just missed out and ended up second, Hamilton looked to have got it but also failed to nail it. Verstappen was killing his last flying lap and was on for a very comfortable pole, when he was told to abort, which thankfully he did. He was marginal on fuel and the rules say you need a litre in the tank at the end of every session in order for samples to be taken for testing. Had he not had that litre, he would be starting today’s race from the pit lane.

As it is, Verstappen starts in 8th place. Now, from what we have seen in recent races, that may not matter. He has won eleven races in 2002 and only three from pole position. We got used to Hamilton and Mercedes dominating pole position for years and then controlling the races and winning. It was a bit dull. At least this season, we have seen the best car/driver combination having to work for his wins. It has been more entertaining.

In three of his last four wins, Verstappen has started 10th, 14th and 7th and he still won them all. One was on the high downforce Hungaroring, one the fast flowing Sap circuit and the other on the very low downforce Monza track. The car is quick enough to win anywhere.

Tougher Challenge

Today he is trying to do it on a street circuit and that challenge is that bit harder as a result. The Red Bull’s advantage may not be quite as big as at most tracks. Ferrari are more competitive, but over a race distance not so much. Mercedes are more competitive and over a race distance they are stronger than in qualifying.

His teammate, Sergio Perez is a good street racer and may not get a better chance to add to his solitary 2022 win, which also came at a street circuit in Monaco. That time he was gifted it by Ferrari screwing up again, but he has a good chance today. The rest of the field do not have a chance on merit, but this is a track on which the safety car has always been a feature (usually more than one), so there is the chance of a twist in the tail.

Safety Car

If anything, a safety car will help Verstappen. It will bunch the field and allow him to close any gap to the leaders, and then it is game on. He needs to keep out of trouble at the start, be patient, taking overtaking chances if and when they arise. His championship lead is all but unassailable and there is no real pressure on him, a sensible race will do, but he does like to win and will try, but the one thing he doesn’t want is a DNF, so caution may be more to the fore.

Looking back at previous races here, we have had 12, and 8 have been won from pole position, two from third, one from fifth and one, the very first race here, from fifteenth. That was the famous race were Renault deliberately crashed Piquet’s Renault in order to allow Alonso a cheap pit stop and to take the lead and win the race.

That is not very encouraging for Verstappen starting from eighth, but this season’s results are. He is saying that the difficulty of overtaking here means getting a podium will be difficult never mind winning. He has yet to win at this venue, and that wait may go on. He starts as a best priced 3.25 second favourite.

Leclerc Is Fav

Charles Leclerc starts as the 2.63 favourite, and given the record of previous pole sitters here, that could be a steal. However, he is in a Ferrari, a team who know how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like no other. He has failed to convert his last six pole positions into a race win, and that should be a major caution to those thinking of the plunge on Leclerc.

Sergio Perez has been the best driver on the streets in 2022, and yes, I am kicking myself for talking myself out of backing him ante post at 21.0. His recent form wasn’t great and the conclusion was to pass him over. Now he starts second after a good qualifying yesterday. Yes, he was flattered by Verstappen’s problem, but he would have been third and that would still have been an above average result for him.

Perez Suited by Track

His driving style suits a track with so many 90 degree corners and the damp, low grip conditions of yesterday further rewarded him. Smooth throttle application out of the slow exits helped him get good traction and that is the name of the game on a track like this. With this slow lap putting the emphasis on mechanical grip rather than aero efficiency, the over steering nature of the Red Bull is not so pronounced, and that should help him.

That said, he wasn’t setting the world on fire in practice and if we get a dry race today, he may struggle to match his qualifying performance. He starts as the 11.00 fourth favourite and once again, his odds look on the generous side.

Hamilton Has Course Form

Lewis Hamilton starts one place behind but the first three were separated by just 0.054 seconds, so there was virtually nothing between them. The Mercedes is traditionally a significantly better race car than qualifier and their difficult car is much more at home on this kind of track. It slow and the partial resurfacing has made it a little less bumpy. He is a four time winner here, so he knows his way round, but he doesn’t start from pole this time. Three of his four wins came from pole. He starts as the 4.50 third favourite which is a touch short.

Carlos Sainz starts fourth and is a 21.00 shot but he will need a lot of things to fall just right if he is to win and his odds look about right.

Max Has Work To Do

It is an interesting situation, and you can make a case for three or four drivers to win. Verstappen has the most work to do on a track which punishes a poor grid position, even with its history of multiple safety cars. He doesn’t need to win so maybe he will have a day off the champagne. Leclerc has history for failing to convert poles into race wins and his odds are cramped.

Which leaves Perez and Hamilton. Nobody has won from second on the grid here, and only twice from third, but the chance is there for both. It is expected to be dry for tonight’s race which should make things less volatile, and it is a track that does tend to be a little processional despite the safety cars. In 2018 the top 6 finished in the exact same order as they started.

As ever, the odds decide it. Sergio Perez looks too big at 11.00. He is a good street racer and if he can finish second you get a reasonable profit with an e/w bet and the chance of a good pay out should he win.

2022 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 1 point e/w Sergio Perez to win @ 11.00 with Betvictor, Skybet, BET365

Outside of the Big Three, we have Fernando Alonso leading the midfield pack. He was 0.6 faster than Norris yesterday and the new floor on the Alpine is making a difference, even on this slow track. Norris is sporting upgrades on his McLaren but is playing down any performance gains. Alonso was 1.2 seconds ahead of Gasly and the battle to be best of the rest looks to be firmly in his grasp. Keep it out of the walls and don’t break down, should be enough for the two time Singapore GP winner.

2022 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alonso to win without the big three @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes

Norris looks nailed on for yet another P7 but our bet on a double points finish for McLaren looks dead in the water after Ricciardo’s dreadful qualifying yesterday. He starts 17th and even on a track he loves, he couldn’t cut it.

Gasly drove a good lap to get 7th and his teammate is 10th for Alpha Tauri. Tsunoda has failed to score for the last ten races but Gasly has two top 10s from the last three races. Best odds of 1.61 are hardly giving anything away.

Kevin Magnussen got a great 9th in qualifying and on a high downforce, slow track his Haas is relatively competitive. He has converted four of his six top 10 qualifying sessions into points and is just about backing to do so again. He is the track record holder here and has two 10th places to his credit.

2022 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points @ 2.05 with Pokerstars

The final bet is a very speculative one. Alex Albon is making his return after missing the Italian GP to have his appendix removed. He suffered a reaction to the anaesthetic and was put into an induced coma for a while. It is a little surprising that he has been passed fit to race, but he has come through all the sessions fine so far.

However, this is regarded as the toughest physical race of the season. Very high temperatures and humidity combined with a very busy lap with a less than smooth track surface really takes it out of the drivers. Fatigue is always a problem and if Albon isn’t quite fit, he could be found out here.

It is a shame that his opponent is such a poor driver. Latifi is on his way out of Williams and he has been plumb last in every session. He is the worst driver on the grid. I will have a very small bet on the possibility that Latifi gets lucky and tiredness forces Albon into a mistake or to retire. He has beaten Albon, sorry, been classified ahead of Albon, four times in 2022, so it is not without hope!

2022 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Latifi to beat Albon @ 3.75 with Unibet

JamesPunt