Tuesday World Grand Prix Darts Preview and Tips – JP
Tuesday World Grand Prix Darts Tips
Well, that was quite a start for James Punt on Monday night. He hit the bullseye with six of his seven tips, let’s hope for more of the same today. His Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tips are below.
Madars Razma vs. Ryan Searle
Heavy Metal Searle starts as the 1.40 favourite with Razmatazz the 3.10 outsider. The Latvian is the only player in the tournament with a seasonal 3 dart average of less than 90. It holds true for the stats for the last three months and in the same period his checkout % is 37%, ranking him 27th in this tournament and 30th for 180s per leg.
He is not, never has been, a heavy scorer and his 12 month average has fallen a little in 2022, but his win rate has improved. He makes the most of what he has got, he has yet to win at senior level but has reached three players championship finals, including one this year.
Most recently he has won six of his last ten matches on the pro tour but he doesn’t have much of a track record in major finals. This season he has lost his opening match in the UK Open and World Matchplay. In TV tournaments he has lost seven of his last eight.
Heavy Scorer
Ryan Seale isn’t quite at elite level, but he is a very talented player and a heavy scorer. His form in 2022 hasn’t been great, however. His win rate in 2022 has fallen from 70% in 2021 to 61%. He has played much better in the floor events than on TV and his euro tour form was poor.
He has lost six of his last ten matches, but he showed something like his proper form in the Belgian Darts Open when he gave De Sousa a good game, but he still lost. His confidence will be a bit fragile and this is an important match as a win will move him into the top 16 in the world rankings. Since 1st July Searle is 8th best player on checkouts in this field, only 23rd for his 3 dart average and 24th for 180s per leg. That shows that his recent form has been well shy of his seasonal stats.
H2H
Their H2H stats show a 2-0 lead for Searle but their last match was in 2020 and both players have improved since then. A couple of weeks ago and I would have been giving serious consideration to backing Razma. He is an underrated player and often a good value punt.
However, Searle last match vs. De Sousa did catch my eye. He lost, but was 4 from 4 on his doubles, averaged 97 and hit four maximums. He looked much more like himself, and it took a good performance from De Sousa to beat him. One good match doesn’t mean he is back, but it was enough to suggest it. I will swerve the outright market for this match.
The one bet which does look worth striking is the 180s. Razma is a very good treble 19 hitter and that impacts on the number of 180s he hits as he just doesn’t go for as many as most players. His seasonal 180 per leg rate is 14% and the last three months, 11%. Searle isn’t the 180 beast he once was, but his seasonal rate is 25% and three month rate 23%.
Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tip: 1 point Ryan Searle to have the most 180s @ 1.70 with SportingIndex
Ross Smith vs. Andrew Gilding
Two players who have been in good form recently and it is a bit of a shame they got drawn together as both have the potential to cause a few surprises against the big names. Smith is a streaky player and overall he hasn’t had a great season. His win rate has dropped to 52% from 60% last year and his seasonal average is down just under 2 points. More recently, he has hit one of his purple patches.
Of the 32 players in the tournament, his 3 month 3 dart average sees him ranked 5th and 1st for 180s per leg. He is only 21st for Checkout %, but at 39% it isn’t bad. He has won six of his last ten matches and three of the last four have seen ton plus averages.
Gilding In Form
Andrew Gilding has been in good form for a longer period and even with the summer break taking him out of action for nearly six weeks, he picked up from where he left off. His win rate in 2022 is 64% and he has won six of his last ten matches. He has reached two players championship finals and we last saw him narrowly losing the final of the Belgian Darts Open to Dave Chisnall at the end of last month. He is a heavy scorer and hit a 118 average in the summer.
Their H2H record is 1-1 and there really is very little between them. The market has Gilding as the 1.83 favourite and Smith at 2.10. There might be a little value in Smith’s odds as this looks like a coin toss to me. Smith can be backed at 2.05 to have the most 180s, which again offers a little bit of value, but not enough for me to get involved.
Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tip: No Bet
Danny Noppert vs. Gabriel Clemens
We are on Noppert to win his quarter and hopefully he can get off to a good start against the German Giant, who has been showing some signs of better form.
Noppert is the current UK Open champion, and he reached the semi-final here last year and he was a semi-finalist at the Matchplay back in July. He is becoming a big match player and surely on the shortlist for the Premier League next year. The Dutchman has won six of his last ten and is a consistent, heavy scorer.
Inconsistent Clemens
Clemens has never done as well in the majors and only won one match is his two appearances in this event. He has lost six of his last ten matches but has played better than that sounds. He does lack the consistency of Noppert, but his A game is strong and he cannot be underestimated.
In the last three months and for the 32 qualifiers for the tournament, Clemens is ranked 22nd for 3 dart average, 24th for checkout % and 14th for 180s per leg. That compares with 7th, 3rd and 13th respectively for Noppert.
Their H2H record is 2-2 and this will be their first match in 2022. Noppert’s career is clearly moving ahead while 2022 has seen Clemens’ stalling. The market has Noppert as the 1.40 favourite and Clemens 3.10. Those look about right to me, and this is another match which doesn’t offer much value from a betting point of view. Hopefully Noppert justifies his odds and moves on to the next round.
Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tip: No Bet
Joe Cullen vs. Damon Heta
It has been a bit of a breakthrough year for Cullen. He won the Masters at the start of it and made the most of his pick for the Premier League, making the final and very nearly winning it. The whole Premier League experience did burn him out a bit.
He has done a bit of a Ferret by winning most of his money in unranked events in 2022. Winning the Masters, runner up in the Premier League and the World Series quarter finals. In ranked majors he has made two semi-finals but in this event, he has won just three matches in six appearances.
Cullen has won two players championship events, both before the start of the Premier League and he won on the euro tour after the Premier League had finished. I expect him to play well for the rest of the season now that the grind of Premier League life is behind him.
Winning Form
He has won seven of his last ten matches but there were three sub 90 averages in there. In terms of his rankings relative to the other qualifiers, Cullen’s 3 month form sees him 27th for 3 dart average, 30th for checkout % and 18th for 180s per leg. That compares to 6th, 12th and 4th respectively for Heta, but Cullen has been the more successful player.
Damon Heta is a frustrating player to follow. He has been one of the game’s heaviest scorers ever since he got his tour card, but he has not won the number of titles he should have. He has won just two of his last ten matches, despite scoring well in almost all of them.
His confidence can’t be in great shape. His two wins came against Alan Soutar and Gordon Mathers, and he has struggled against the bigger guns, including a 2-10 thrashing at the hands of Cullen in the Matchplay.
Their overall H2H record is 4-2 to Cullen and in 2022 3-1.
Cullen is the 1.95 favourite to win this, Heta 2.00, and despite Heta having the stats in his favour, Cullen has the actual wins and he is the one getting titles.
Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tip: 1 point Joe Cullen to win @ 1.95 with SpreadEx
Rob Cross vs. Daryl Gurney
It has been very nearly three years sin Superchin last got a win against Rob Cross. Voltage has won their last five in a row and is 15-6 overall.
Cross won PC 24 just before the summer break and he was in very good form having been runner up in three euro tour events, he finally got a title. Since we came back from the break, he has played five matches and lost two. In his last four he has looked out of form, averaging just 89.75 across the four.
Daryl Gurney is slipping down the rankings and his seasonal average shadows that fall. He has lost six of his last ten matches and seven of those have seen averages under 91.
Bogeyman?
You have to wonder if Cross has become Gurney’s bogeyman after THAT match in the 2019 Matchplay semi-final. They have met twice this year with Cross winning 7-4 and 6-3.
In Gurney’s favour is that he has a much better record in this tournament than Cross. He was the 2017 champion and made a semi-final in 2018. Cross has played in five Grand Prix and won just two matches. It is by far and away his worst major.
Cross is the 1.57 favourite, Gurney 2.60. It is hard to make a case for Gurney on recent form. Yes, occasionally he unleashes his A game to good effect, but from his last 50 matches, only 14% have seen a ton plus average, 26% sub 90.
The odds on Cross are fair enough, but he just hasn’t looked in great nick since the summer break and that, combined with a poor tournament record, would prevent me backing him. I would want more than 2.60 before backing Superchin and this is another no bet for me.
Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tip: No Bet
James Wade vs. Martin Lukeman
Lukeman has made a big impression on the euro tour this season, making a final and finishing 15th on the OOM. He has won five of his last ten matches, hitting four ton plus averages, but he is struggling to win back-to-back. Lukeman doesn’t have a lot of major experience and his last TV match was at the Matchplay where he lost 4-10 to James Wade.
Wade is a two time winner for this event but the last win was back in 2010. He was runner up in 2014 but since then has won just two matches, going out in the first round five times. He has won six of his last ten matches and is playing OK but nothing special.
Their H2H record is 3-1 to Wade and while Lukeman’s checkout % is a fraction better than Wade’s in the last three months, as is his 3 dart average (and he hits more 180s per leg) it is still Wade who starts as the 1.54 favourite with Lukeman 2.75. It is Lukeman who is attracting the money which is interesting and in this short format he has a puncher’s chance. It is the H2H record and Lukeman’s lack of experience in majors which is enough for me to pass this one over.
Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tip: No Bet
Gerwyn Price vs. Martin Schindler
Price has hit something like his peak form at the right time of the season, winning nine of his last ten matches and winning the World Series of Darts finals. He was made to work hard in all of his matches, so it was a title well earned.
Schindler has had a good season but that first senior title still eludes him. He has won six of his last ten matches
Price Dominant in H2H
Price has won seven of their last eight matches and is 9-3 overall vs. Schindler. The German took Price close at this year’s Matchplay, losing 8-10, but mostly he has suffered wide margin defeats and with Price hitting top form, it could well be another.
It took Price a while to get the hang of the Grand Prix, but he won in 2020 and was runner up last year. Schindler is making his tournament debut. Price is better in just about every facet of the game but both players have been hitting plenty of 180s in the last three months, both at 0.32 per leg.
Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tip: 1 point Price to win 2-0 @ 2.10 with SpreadEx, Skybet
Tuesday World Grand Prix darts tip: 1 point over 4.5 180s @ 1.85 with SportingIndex
Michael Smith vs. Nathan Aspinall
Smith has not enjoyed this event over the years. He has played in nine Grand Prix and won just two matches, never going beyond the second round. Seven first round defeats means he has to be opposed. His recent form is a bit up and down, losing five of his last ten but this is more about doubling than power scoring, and Smith has a lot of scar tissue associated with the outer ring.
Nathan Aspinall has won six of his last ten matches but he hasn’t been a model of consistency himself. His 3 month checkout rate is 43% compared to Smith 40%. Smith is the heavier scorer but not by much.
Smith is 7-5 in their H2H stats, but Aspinall has won four of the last six.
Bully Boy Favourite
Smith is the 1.75 favourite and Aspinall 2.20. In most other tournaments I would just about accept that, but not in the Grand Prix. It plays to Smiths’s Achilles Heel. Aspinall doesn’t have a great record in this event either, reaching the quarter finals in 2019 but losing in the first round in the last two years, but he still gets my vote here.
The last three months’ form shows that usually good 180 hitting of Aspinall has dropped off, hitting at just 0.23 per leg, which compares poorly with Smith’s 0.36. It could be one of those matches where the loser hits the most 180s.
