Friday World Grand Prix Darts Preview and Tips – JP
Friday World Grand Prix Darts Tips
We somehow ended up without a winner on Thursday. Unfortunately drunken louts in the crowd got into Danny Noppert’s head and he imploded in the deciding set v Aspinall. Hopefully we avoid similar misfortune this evening, James Punt’s Friday World Grand Prix darts tips are below.
Nathan Aspinall vs. Martin Lukeman
Aspinall came from 0-2 down to end the hopes of our selection to win the quarter, Danny Noppert. There was a bit of gamesmanship from Aspinall after some of the crowd were getting on both players’ cases. It did seem to do the job as it knocked Noppert right out of his stride and from 2-0 up in the decider, he lost three legs in a row and the match.
Aspinall has won six of his last ten matches and played eight major quarter finals, winning four. He lost a quarter final in this event in 2019, 1-3 to Chizzy.
Inconsistency
Lukeman has also win six of his last ten matches but it is three months since he won three in a row. That suggests a certain level of inconsistency and he is not a particularly heavy scorer, but he is very good on the outer ring. For the last 12 months he is ranked T6th for checkout %, tied with……Nathan Aspinall. It was his better performance at checking out that was the difference against Ross Smith last night which won him the match.
Aspinall is the heavier scorer, and he should get more chances to win legs and he should be able to take enough of them. If he doesn’t, Smash will take his chances and could make it a close one. He has shown a lot of bottle so far, wining both matches in deciding sets. He is under no pressure whatsoever. Lukeman has moved up 16 places on the OOM already and anything else is a bonus.
Boo Boys
My guess is that Lukeman, as the underdog, will be the crowd favourite tonight and will Aspinall be able to handle the boo boys for a second night? If Lukeman can keep the pace below the rat-a-tat pace which The Asp needs he can get something from the match. He is the 3.20 outsider which is understandable given the scoring and experience differences between the two, but this format might just help him compete.
Friday World Grand Prix darts tips: 1 point Martin Lukeman to win +1.5 sets @ 2.00 with Betfair
Gerwyn Price vs. Madars Razma
Price was magnificent in the last two sets against Cullen last night. He was 2-1 down and in danger of going out but he lit the afterburners and won six legs in a row to take the match. It was the best performance of the tournament so far and an ominous sign for his rivals. He had six legs with 15 darts or less, in a double in format. Unplayable.
Razma beat Daryl Gurney 3-1 in a surprise result. It was a performance near the top of his abilities and might be hard to repeat. Gurney won the first leg but Razma then won six legs in a row to go 2-0 up. By the time Gurney started to find his game, the damage had been done and the match was lost.
Close H2H
Their H2H record is surprisingly close, 6-4 to Price. All matches have been on the floor (one was a final) and this is a different kettle of fish. Price has played in 23 major quarter finals and won 15, and 9 of the last 13. Razma has never played a single one.
Price is the 1.17 favourite, Razma 5.25. Given their H2H record you might think the Latvian is a bit of value, but Price is at the top of his game and will be more at home at this stage of a major. Razma is a quite slow player and that isn’t what Price likes, that may explain the relatively good H2H record for him against Price.
One Winner?
If Price can force Razma to up the pace, he should blow him away. If Razma can frustrate Price by keeping it slow, he might get something out of the game, but surely there can only be one winner? The crowd is a bit of a football fans outing and Price will be getting the usual abuse, but he should be able to shut them up quick enough.
The pace of play is a concern, but there is a gulf in class here, a gulf in scoring power and a gulf in big match experience. Razma has exceeded expectations by getting this far and it is time for a reality sandwich.
Friday World Grand Prix darts tips: 1 point Price to win 3-0 @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes
Michael van Gerwen vs. Chris Dobey
MVG wasn’t entirely convincing when beating Stephen Bunting 3-2. He gave Bunting a lot of chances which he mostly took. MVG should have won the match much more comfortably than he did. He was the better player and won 13 legs to 7, but Bunting was allowed to take the match to a deciding set.
Van Gerwen still looks a bit nervous and in five of his last seven matches, his checkout rate has been 25% or lower. All the talk is about doubling in, but it is the old fashioned doubling out that wins matches and that is a part of his game that is not in great shape.
No Win vs MVG
Chris Dobey will be making just his fifth major quarter final and he has won two of his four so far, one of them in this event in 2109. He scraped past an underwhelming Ian White on that occasion 3-2, before losing the semi-final 0-4 to Van Gerwen. That was one of ten defeats to MVG and Dobey is yet to get a win over Mighty Mike. Interestingly, of those ten, five have gone to a deciding leg, including their only match this year.
MVG las lost five of his last ten matches, Dobey has won seven of his. This looks to be a question of Dobey’s mentality. Does he believe he can beat MVG and end that horrendous H2H record, or will he come up short again? So many deciding leg defeats suggests that he won’t.
Hot Fav
Van Gerwen has played eight Grand Prix quarter finals and won six. He is the 1.33 favourite, with Dobey 3.60. With Van Gerwen struggling badly with his checkouts at times, there could be chances for Dobey in the same way as there were for Bunting. Dobey is a heavy scorer and he should be in a position to take those chances if his nerves allow him but ultimately, he will likely fall short to his nemesis.
Seven of the eight second round matches went to a deciding set and with so many of their matches being narrow margin wins for MVG, perhaps we will get another.
Friday World Grand Prix darts tips: 1 point Michael van Gerwen to win 3-2 @ 5.50 with Betfred
Peter Wright vs. Dimitri van den Bergh
A bit like MVG. Wright was less than convincing in his 3-2 win against Ratajski. He was chopping and changing his darts mid match and he just seemed to switch off after winning the first set, lost the next two and looked like he was in trouble. He regrouped to win the last two sets 3-0 however and disaster was averted. Classic Snakebite.
He has won eight of his last ten matches and is playing well. He just needs a bit more aggression and to keep his mind on the job. His wife has had another operation recently and that will have been a distraction and may explain his performance.
Dimitri In Decent Form
Van den Bergh beat Jonny Clayton 3-2 and he was the better player on the night. He is in decent form with six wins from his last ten. His H2H record with Wright is 3-12 (1 draw) and in 2022 it is 1-1. Wright beat Dimitri 8-6 in the final of the penultimate euro tour event last month, and Van den Bergh beat Wright 16-14 in the World Matchplay quarter final having lost the final to him 12 months earlier.
This has not been a good event for Snakebite and he has only ever reached two quarter finals, winning just one. It is a box that he wants to tick and he will fancy his chances against his one time house guest.
Money Coming For Snakebite
Wright is the 1.73 favourite and being backed to win. Van den Bergh had never gone beyond the second round in this event but he has played eight major quarter finals and won four, three of them in the World Matchplay which is his favourite event.
Wright is in better form and has a good H2H record against Dimitri. We are on him to win the event and there is no need to be getting involved at odds on.
