2022 US GP Raceday Update

James Punt was on form in qualifying, landing both his bets. Now, it is time for James’ 2022 US GP Raceday update. Check it out below.

2022 US GP Raceday Tips

Ferrari achieved a rare 1-2 in qualifying yesterday, but Charles Leclerc has dropped back to 12th on the grid after his grid penalties for a new engine and turbo unit. That leaves Carlos Sainz on pole for the second time this season and he converted his only ‘earned’ pole into a win, his sole F1 win, at Silverstone. He got a bit lucky that day as Verstappen, who started 2nd, as he does today, picked up car damage early on and was never really a feature in the race afterwards. Sainz started on pole in Belgium after a penalty for Verstappen, but only finished third there.

Red Bull will want to win the race to honour the memory of their owner and founder, Dietrich Mateschitz, but they may find it more difficult than usual.

The Ferrari is a better qualifier than race car which explains their poor pole to race win conversion rate, but there are a couple things which may mean Sainz has a decent chance to land his second win.

Tyre Degradation

There hasn’t been a lot of chat about tyre degradation yet, but it will be a feature today. The large number of corners here puts the tyres under stress and a two stopper should be the order of the day. That means tyre management is going to play its part.

Based on the long runs in practice (and with the tyre test in FP2 we haven’t seen as much as usual), it was the Ferrari that was hanging on to the tyres for longer than the Red Bull. If Sainz can get a bit more life out of his tyres that could give him a bit of an edge and Ferrari a bit more room in terms of strategy. Of course, they might well still bugger it up strategy wise, but they should have a bit more flexibility.

Straight Line Speed

The second factor is the nature of the track. The Red Bull has better straight line speed than anyone else and that has won them plenty of races. They can attack on the straights and defend well if required. They still have an advantage here, but it isn’t huge and the track is much more about corners, braking, traction and so on. Get them right and there are few places for Red Bull to close the gap with straight line performance.

The biggest straight is between the hairpin at corner 11, and corner 12, but the section of track from the apex of corner 1 to corner 11 is Ferrari friendly and they should be able to buy some breathing space and defend it down the straight. The start finish straight isn’t particularly long and easier to defend on.

Start Crucial

The start will be important because if Verstappen gets in front, he stays there. Sainz needs to use the advantage of the clean side of the track to get off the line better and get the best line through the first corner. From there he can open up a gap before any attack down the straight.

From there, he has to manage the tyres and hope for a flawless performance from his team. It is the second part which worries me more, but I’ll take a punt that he can pull it off. The pole position driver has won four of the last five races here and in the turbo hybrid era, the winner has always come from the front row.

2022 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to win the US GP @ 6.00 with SpreadEx

The demotions for Leclerc and Perez mean that the two Mercedes drivers now start 3rd and 4th. Hamilton was nearly 0.6 seconds off the pace of Sainz on pole and that is a sizeable gap. Yes, the Mercedes has tended to be a better race car than qualifier and they should be good in terms of tyre deg, but are they still just too slow? Probably.

They are very slow on the straights, so the relative lack of big straights here will limit that handicap, but it still limits their ability to attack and defend. Hamilton loves the track and despite not having a podium finish for the last five races, the two Mercedes drivers have 13 podium finishes between them in 2022. This is a good chance to get another. Their biggest threats start 9th and 12th so they have some breathing space in the early part of the race at least.

Overtaking Tough

This is not a great track for making up a lot of places over your grid position, especially at the front end. The top 6 tend to be the same that started there by and large. Most of the big come from behind drives have either been the result of being in a very good car but out of position, or drivers getting lucky in races with high attrition, which is common here.

Sebastian Vettel has had three great drives from the back to score points here, Verstappen two, Sainz one and Alonso and Button one each, but clearly making up a lot of places is the exception rather than the rule. Leclerc and Perez have the machinery to do it, but it is just that bit harder here than at most tracks.

Hamilton just has to hold position to get another podium and he is a 1.80 shot to do just that. Those odds are just enough for a small bet.

2022 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 1.80 with Unibet

Alex Albon in the Williams flew under the radar yesterday and will start the race from 8th place. The Williams is up there with the Red Bull in terms of straight line speed and that was enough to get him up to 11th in qualifying. That was his second best qualifying effort of the season. He was 9th at Spa and started that 6th after various penalties were applied.

He is a 3.00 shot to get a points finish today which is tempting, but the gusty winds should do him no favours in the Williams. That said, it was quite windy yesterday and he did OK. I suspect he will come up one or two places short, unless we have another high attrition US GP.#

Albon Worth A Look

Albon can be backed with Ladbrokes to win Group 2 where he is up against Gasly, Ricciardo and Tsunoda. Riccardo has lost the plot and starts 8 places back from Albon. Tsunoda is five places back and he hasn’t finished better than 13th in the last 12 races. Gasly is the 2.50 favourite and gives up just three places to the Williams driver.

Gasly has had three top 10s from his last five races but never finished better than 14th here. He has also been struggling with the brakes on his Alpha Tauri, and so has his teammate. Gasly is coming across as very frustrated and unhappy, barking at his engineer, and if he isn’t happy in the car he could make mistakes on a track where you really need to be comfortable under braking. He is worth taking on.

2022 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to win Group 2 @ 3.25 with Ladbrokes

The fact that it is hard to make up places here makes the odds for drivers like Ocon and Alonso too short at 1.55 and 2.20 respectively. We have a nice ante post bet on a double points finish for Aston Martin and with Stroll starting 5th and Vettel 10th, we are in with a chance and the odds are now just 2.75 from 5.50.

Lance Stroll is 4.33 to finish in the top 6 and this is a track that can help him do just that. He has been competitive all weekend, the Aston Martin is a better racer than qualifier and Stroll is one of best drivers off the line. He is 4.33 to finish in the top 6, but with a few bets already in the Aston Martin basket, it is tempting bad fortune to go in on another. The same applies to his odds of 4.50 to be ‘best of the rest’ with Ladbrokes. Norris is their 1.75 favourite and Alonso at 3.75, despite starting 14th.

JamesPunt