2022 Mexico GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2022 Mexico GP Raceday Update and Betting Tips
James Punt was out of luck with his bet on Lewis Hamilton to get pole yesterday. Hopefully we get more good fortune today. James’ 2022 Mexico GP Raceday Update is ready, check it out below.
2022 Mexico GP Raceday Preview
Sometimes you get the feeling that a race isn’t going to work out how you had thought, and this is one of them.
The Mexico City GP has usually been quite a good one to predict as we knew that Honda power was the thing to have, but it hasn’t gone that way so much this weekend. These new ground effect cars have behaved differently to usual and while Red Bull have coped well enough, they haven’t dominated and the Alpha Tauri’s have struggled.
Ferrari dropped the ball in qualifying, their power unit does not like running at altitude according to Leclerc, but doesn’t Bottas have one in the back of his Alfa Romeo? Aston Martin have gone AWOL, while Bottas has crashed into the top 6.
Technical Issues
Several cars had technical problems in qualifying, including Perez and Leclerc. Perez had an electrical problem which caused some in car systems to shut down and made his life more difficult than it should have. He just about got away with it and starts fourth. Charles Leclerc had power unit driveability issues and Hamilton had complained of something similar.
The Mercedes is the big winner from the conditions here. Their draggy car is not so heavily punished on the straights. They are still slower than Red Bull and Ferrari, but by a smaller margin, and their good downforce is being rewarded in the slow corners. They were 0.3 slower than Max in Q3 yesterday, but it took an exceptional lap from Verstappen to deny Mercedes a second pole of the season.
Pecking Order
It appears the pecking order today is Red Bull from Mercedes, but much closer than anywhere else. Ferrari are having enough problems to have been split by the Alfa Romeo of Bottas. It will be interesting to see how Bottas goes. The car is loving the slow corners but he hasn’t scored a point in the last ten races and he has suffered four DNFs in those ten. It has to be the most unreliable car on the grid, so if you’re backing Bottas, be aware.
The McLaren vs. Alpine battle remains intense with the two Alpines sandwiched by the two McLarens. The Alpha Tauris have lost their traditional good form at altitude, starting 13th and 14th, and at the back we have Haas, Aston Martin and Williams in a heap.
The thin air and high temperatures make cooling the car difficult and we could see a few retirements this evening. That usually brings out a safety car as there is not a lot of room to safely clear a parked car out of the way here. That could introduce an element of luck, but traditionally this race is a bit processional at the front, first lap aside.
Start Pivotal
A very big part of any race is the start and in Mexico City, it might be the race. It is an 800 metre run from pole to the first corner in a completely straight line. The drivers on the front row are punching a nice big car shaped hole in the air for those behind to follow. It may be the worst pole position on the calendar.
In the six races here in the modern era, the pole sitter has won just twice and lost the last four. The last two winners have started from second place and one each from 5th and 4th. Last year Verstappen overtook pole sitter Bottas into the first corner and the Finn was then hit from behind by Ricciardo. Five of the other top 6 starters finished in the top 6.
Top 6 The Place To Be
In 2019 the top 6 on the grid finished in the top 6. Then, in 2018 only a DNF for Ricciardo prevented the same thing. In 2017 only one car dropped out of the top 6 on the grid during the race, ditto 2016 and 2015. It looks like we should expect the top 6 to finish in much the same order as they start, so long as they get a clean start. The most likely driver to lose out would seem to be the man at the front. If we are to lose one man from the top 6 on the grid, then Bottas through unreliability would seem to be the most likely.
We are on three bets ante post. Perez to win which looks a bit of a stretch from 4th, but it has been done. Vettel to finish in the points and I would say we can wave goodbye to that. The Aston Martins have just not been anywhere near the pace, long or short runs. The last one is Gasly to finish in the points and he only starts 14th. On a track where it is very hard to make up places, he needs luck to land that one.
2022 Mexico GP Raceday Selections
The first bet was going to be silly, but I have decided that it should be insane. Having pointed out that the Alfa Romeo is the most unreliable car on the grid, I am going to back Bottas, but not for a top 6 finish, but for a podium. Since we returned here in 2015 the driver starting 6th here has always finished in the top 6, but the most common finishing position from 6th on the grid is 3rd.
That has happened three times from six. All he needs is for some attrition in front of him, maybe a bit of luck with a safety car and he’s in, simple really. Bottas loves the kind of low grip surface we have here and the car received an upgrade in Japan which is now bearing fruit. He likes the track because it suits his strengths and it is about time we got a strange result on the podium.
2022 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bottas to finish on the podium @ 34.00 with BET365, Skybet, Pokerstars
Leclerc is hoping that Ferrari can find a cure for his power unit woes of yesterday. He said it wasn’t responding correctly to his throttle inputs which was making it very hard to drive. Unless they have, he is expecting ‘a nightmare race’. He stuffed it into the wall in FP1 causing quite a bit of damage but nothing that required a new PU or gearbox. You have to wonder if the two things are related as Sainz did not report the same issue.
Carlos Sainz had a dreadful record here until he managed a 6th place for Ferrari last season, his first points finish. He out qualified Leclerc yesterday and starts two places ahead of his teammate. It may be worth opposing Leclerc with the underrated Spaniard.
